Islamic state (a terrorist organization banned in Russia — approx. ed.) has claimed responsibility for the attack at the stadium in Manchester on Monday evening. Researcher of the problems of terror Ranstorp Magnus (Magnus Ranstorp) does not believe that ISIS can disappear in his lifetime.
“One of the soldiers of the Caliphate managed to place a bomb in the crowd of crusaders in Manchester,” reads the statement of the terrorist group ISIS.
While the British authorities did not confirm that a suicide bomber linked to ISIS. Also it is not clear yet, whether the offender acted alone or he was a member of a terrorist organization. Police alleged he was known earlier, but the police did not specify what is meant.
In recent years, Europe has witnessed a number of terrorist attacks and ISIS has become a source of inspiration for their perpetrators, or the perpetrators were directly linked to ISIS.
“The effect of ISIS”
Senior researcher, research Institute of Armed forces of Norway (FFI) Nesser Petter (Petter Nesser) and his colleagues analyzed the terrorist attacks in Europe since 1994 and until today. Nasser believes that we have an obvious “effect of ISIS”.
After 2013 most committed or prevented acts of terrorism were associated with ISIS, not with “al-Qaeda” (the terrorist organization banned in Russia — approx. ed.). Simultaneously, the number of terrorist attacks has greatly increased.
“In the last period, from 2014 to 2016, there have been obvious turn in the direction of a larger number of attacks using more simple means,” says Nasser in an interview with Aftenposten.
Probably ISIS will lose attractiveness
Researcher of the problems of terrorism and senior lecturer, University of Aarhus Carsten Bagge, Laustsen (Carsten Bagge Laustsen) believes that over time, ISIS will lose attractiveness in the eyes of their recruits.
“I think that as ISIL is losing territory in Syria and Iraq who wish to join it will be less,” — said political analyst in an interview with Aftenposten.
However, he doesn’t think we should expect the imminent end of the LIH.
“In the next five to ten years, the attacks will continue. They will withdraw from the conquered territories, but so did “al-Qaeda”. Probably there will be new groupings, as was the case with the ISIS,” he predicts.
“ISIL will not disappear by itself”
Researcher Magnus Ranstorp (Magnus Ranstorp) from the armed forces Institute in Stockholm for more than 30 years engaged in studying the problems of terrorism. According to him, ISIS is not a flame that would burn out by itself.
“It’s wrong to argue in favor of the fact that ISIS will burn itself,” says Ranstorp.
“My generation will not be able to see the end of ISIS. Everyone who claims otherwise, is far from reality,” he continues.
The sharp increase in the number of terrorist attacks
Over the last 23 years there have been 135 planned or carried out by jihadists of the terrorist attacks.
Only from 2014 to 2016 was 42 attack, which is much higher than in previous periods.
“More than 50% of the attacks committed by the terrorists, and they are harder to stop. And it is the task of the security services — to better track such cases,” says Nasser.
In 38 of the 42 cases in 2014-2016 the attacks were somehow linked to ISIS.
“Such attacks, as in Sweden and recently in Britain, show that it is an international problem. You should recognize the link between the terrorist network and events in different European countries, and further between the conflict zones in Syria and Iraq,” said Nasser.
“You can’t compare with the RAF”
According to Ranstorp not good to compare ISIS with the terrorist groups of the past, such as the “red Army Faction” (RAF), the extreme left terrorist group that terrorized West Germany in the 1970-ies and 1980-ies.
“They could have planted bombs in Germany, but the lasting effect it had, while a small terrorist attack by ISIL, may have a significant effect, says Ranstorp. — From LIH there are signs of something bigger, it in itself will not disappear. Apart from the fact that in this organization of thousands of people, its status has attracted many”.
Believes that Norway is an example to follow
To illustrate the most important measure in the fight against terror, Ranstorp cites the example of Norway, are rewarded with his praise.
“When the evil struck Barbara Breivik, the society stood shoulder to shoulder. Properly behaved and political leadership, and society as a whole, which showed concern for the victims and solidarity”.
According to Ranstorp, ISIS aspires to something quite opposite, namely, polarization.
The expert quoted the British police, and gives the following advice in the fight against terror: “Be alert but not alarmed”.