In 2017, after the inauguration of the elected President of the USA of Donald trump, Russia and America will attempt to smooth the conflict that emerged between them in recent years, according to Ukrainian political experts. In addition, trump will advocate for the easing of sanctions against Russia. In this case, the end of the military conflict in the Donbas is not yet in sight, despite the fact that the focus of the military aggression of Russia move on Syria
USA: trump and Putin intend to establish bilateral relations
Vladimir Putin and Donald trump. Photo: AFP
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Donald trump will attempt to negotiate immediately after the inauguration of the secondpolitical analyst Volodymyr Fesenko.
“I don’t expect there would be some contrast to that after this confrontation will be a Union and immediately agreed on everything. I’m not so sure. Can be rather a period of some conditional restart when controversial issues can be put aside, to soften the sanctions – is unlikely to remove completely, but to soften can. Unlikely to recognize the administration trump the Russian Crimea, it is extremely unlikely. But on the Donbas may be another attempt to implement the Minsk agreements. Another thing – this is unlikely to be successful because if this issue will be resolved without Ukraine, this attempt is doomed to failure. Secondly, if you are prompted with the same formula as before – first the election, and then everything else, this formula will not be accepted by the Ukrainian society, the Ukrainian Parliament, and, again, will be doomed to failure”, – said Fesenko.
To date both Russia and the USA are ready to dialogue aimed at reducing the level of confrontation that emerged between these countries in recent years. The newly elected President of the United States Donald trump after his inauguration to mitigate sanctions against Russia, making her a bet, as the situational partner. Russian President Vladimir Putin, in turn, will try to bring Russia to the level of geopolitical players of the first magnitude, the Director of the Institute of socio-political designing “Dialogue” Andriy Miselyuk.
However, to negotiate on other issues, Russia and the United States will not be easy, says Vladimir Fesenko. “Syria can come to some kind of interaction models against ISIS, but will continue to be the case is an open question. Trump not care to be Assad (Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad – Ed.) or no, he will not fight for its overthrow, but with the Middle East and Syria may have problems of a different order is a strict policy of trump in relation to Iran. But Iran – an ally of Russia…And the same problem is in relation with China”, – the expert believes.
Meanwhile, the analyst Yaroslav Makitra more careful in their assessments. According to the expert, to predict policy trump is now difficult – it is too unpredictable in their actions. To date, among American officials, appointed trump is as loyal to Russia, and those who strongly opposed it. Therefore, to assess the policy of trump will do once he will take his first steps on a post of the President of the United States after the inauguration, said the Nut.
In any case, the attempt to establish a relationship doesn’t mean they will improve – Volodymyr Fesenko suggests that it could fail. The expert notes that say exactly when this might happen is difficult, but practice shows that all the newly elected presidents of the United States trying to normalize relations with Russia, but then it all ends with the resumption of conflict.
“Attempt to negotiate will be some warming of relations, but the contradictions will remain, and the contradictions are very serious. And I do not exclude, I think it’s probably only a matter of time the opposition will again be resumed,” – said Fesenko.
US sanctions against Russia may be mitigated by
US sanctions against Russia may be mitigated. Photo: pressa.today
Experts suggest that after the inauguration of Donald trump will attempt to soften the sanctions against Russia. The formal reason for this may be the active participation of Putin in the negotiations, together with a decrease in Russian military activity in the Donbass, said Volodymyr Fesenko. But, at the same time, to cancel or suspend a trump can only those sanctions that were imposed current U.S. President Barack Obama. Those who claimed and administered the Congress, trump to cancel can not, said Fesenko. At the same time, the expert notes that on some issues, in particular on the issue of sanctions on Russia, difficulties may arise in the interaction of trump’s administration and Congress.
Upon taking office, trump will try to break the resistance of the original members of the Republican party, which is the hardliners on Russia, says Andrew Miseluk. The expert suggests that part of the property trump can do it, especially considering that for the new elected President of the USA the maintenance of sanctions was a priority.
“This issue (the US sanctions against Russia – Ed.) will be the subject of bargaining. Already known for certain that the trump in its geopolitics tries to think like a big businessman – instead of the geopolitical interests of the United States, some strategic combinations, he will try to assess what is best from the point of view of income receiving any preferential treatment, says Miseluk, – Such a unified sanctions front against Russia, which was under the Obama administration and in Europe. Is such a “big American hole” that will fail to patch because trump is a supporter of pragmatic compromise, and he is inclined to consider Russia as a situational partner with whom you can negotiate with a leader who can find common ground and to enlist their support even in matters of trade wars”.
The Kremlin will focus on Syria and the conflict in Ukraine will recede into the background, though, and will not stop
Russia to focus on military action in Syria, not in Ukraine, experts say. Photo: AFP
Thus, in the near future the basic attention of Russia in the military plan will focus not on Ukraine, on Syria, said Vladimir Fesenko. According to experts, this is due to the fact that Ukraine is not a priority for trump, Putin will feel it.
Meanwhile, focusing on Syria, Russia will keep a military conflict in the Donbas in a half frozen state, situational exacerbating or mitigating it, says Miseluk.
“She’s there (in Syria – Ed.) there is a sphere of their geopolitical interests. This issue is in the spotlight and regional players – Turkey, etc., and global such as the United States. And Putin will try thanks to this Syrian arm again to come back to him, a lot of what it has failed – the club’s geopolitical players of the first magnitude, that is, whose opinion should be listened to USA, other country,” he said.
That Ukraine should not relax, agrees political analyst Fesenko. The confrontation in the Donbass will not stop, and the activity of fighting will depend on the circumstances, he said. So, while Putin will negotiate first with trump, then the new President of France, and to wait for the results of the elections in Germany in autumn 2017, active hostilities in the Donbass there will be no, said Fesenko. However, the expert notes that to be fully confident in such variant of development of events is impossible – military action can be intensified, though with less probability.
However, the analyst Yaroslav Makitra thinks otherwise. Despite the presence of economic interests in Syria, for Russia the task of the occupation of or control over Ukraine will remain in the first place, because the Russian leadership is an ideological issue, relevant for centuries.
“Ukraine will always be in the first place, even if it will not be noticeable for some action, – the Nut, – Putin to the end, till his last days will look for mechanisms to do this. Another thing is – will he manage it. Ukraine, I believe, is and will remain the plan No. 1 for the Russian leadership,” – said the Nut.