In 2017 it is expected that the U.S. and Russia will attempt to establish a relationship. According to political analyst Vladimir Fesenko, the talks between the two countries will start immediately after the inauguration of US President Donald trump. However, the expert does not exclude that the resumption of conflict in these countries is only a matter of time. But while the negotiations will be conducted and synergies, “military” attention of the President of Russia Vladimir Putin will focus primarily on Syria. But, at the same time, Ukraine should not count on ending the war in the Donbass, the expert believes.
As the political scientist Vladimir Fesenko, Putin and trump will attempt to negotiate immediately after the inauguration of the second.
“I don’t expect there would be some contrast to that after this confrontation will be a Union and immediately agreed on everything. I’m not so sure. Can be rather a period of some conditional restart when controversial issues can be put aside, to soften the sanctions – is unlikely to remove completely, but to soften can. Unlikely to recognize the administration trump the Russian Crimea, it is extremely unlikely. But on the Donbas may be another attempt to implement the Minsk agreements. Another thing – this is unlikely to be successful, because if this issue will be resolved without Ukraine, this attempt is doomed to failure. Secondly, if you are prompted with the same formula as before – first the election, and then everything else, this formula will not be accepted by the Ukrainian society, the Ukrainian Parliament, and, again, will be doomed to failure”, – said Fesenko.
However, to negotiate on other issues, Russia and the United States is also not so simple.
“Syria can come to some kind of interaction models against ISIS, but will continue to be the case is an open question. Trump not care to be Assad (Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad – Ed.) or no, he will not fight for its overthrow, but with the Middle East and Syria may have problems of a different order is a strict policy of trump in relation to Iran. But Iran – an ally of Russia…And the same problem is in relation with China”, – the expert believes.
At the same time, the US may ease sanctions against Russia – the formal reason for this may be the active participation of Putin in the negotiations, together with a decrease in Russian military activity in the Donbass. But, at the same time, to cancel or suspend a trump can only those sanctions that were imposed current U.S. President Barack Obama. Those who claimed and administered the Congress, trump to cancel can not, said Fesenko. At the same time, the expert notes that on some issues, in particular on the issue of sanctions on Russia, difficulties may arise in the interaction of trump’s administration and Congress.
The analyst suggests that the attempt by the US and Russia to establish a relationship may fail. The expert notes that say exactly when this might happen is difficult, but practice shows that all the newly elected presidents of the United States trying to normalize relations with Russia, but then it all ends with the resumption of conflict.
“Attempt to negotiate will be some warming of relations, but the contradictions will remain, and the contradictions are very serious. And I do not exclude, I think it’s probably only a matter of time the opposition will again be resumed,” – said Fesenko.
Thus, in the near future the basic attention of Russia in the military plan will focus not on Ukraine, on Syria, said Fesenko. According to experts, this is due to the fact that Ukraine is not a priority for trump, Putin will feel it.
Although Ukraine should not relax – the confrontation in the Donbass will not stop, and the fighting will depend on circumstances, the analyst believes. So, while Putin will negotiate first with trump, then the new President of France, and to wait for the results of the elections in Germany in autumn 2017, active hostilities in the Donbass there will be no, said Fesenko. However, the expert notes that to be fully confident in such variant of development of events is impossible – military action, though with less probability, but can be activated.