Expiring 2016 was supposed to be a turning point for Ukraine’s economy – at least, so assured in the Cabinet. However, the economic situation is indeed somewhat stabilized after the country passed the “bottom” of the crisis: GDP, according to calculations of the authorities, for the year 2016 increased by 1-1. 5%, inflation is slowing (in annual terms in November, a 12.1%), industrial production was periodically to show growth. But “pumped up” hryvnia – when incorporated in the 2016 budget aware 24,1 UAH/USD., the national currency in December time and again fallen below 27 UAH/USD.
Did the authorities to fully achieve their ambitious goals, it will become clear only in January 2017, when the state statistics service will publish the annual statistics. In the meantime, “Segodnya” recalls the most sensational events in 2016, which related to the economy.
A free trade zone with the EU
“Free trade” between Ukraine and the EU is fully operational from 1 January 2016. Until then, Ukraine was using preferentsijami and abolished duties on European goods, while the exported goods to the EU without duties. Now in the structure of Ukrainian exports 37% occupied European countries. For the duration of the FTA managed to increase exports of poultry, egg poultry, wheat, barley, oilseeds, canola oil, sugar, confectionery.
But despite the fears of the Ukrainian producers, the dominance of cheap imports in Ukraine and not, as the European market continued to protect themselves by quotas, which are quickly exhausted. After the exhaustion of the quota trade with the EU can continue, but the cost of production will then increase because exporters have to compensate toll.
Also, in General the export of Ukrainian goods in the first nine months of 2016 is not increased, but rather decreased by 8.9%.
The growth of tariffs of housing and some social standards
Tariffs for electricity, gas and water in Ukraine twice a year added at a 20% increase took place in March and September. In addition, in may the Cabinet of Ministers canceled the “social” price for gas for the population, which led to an increase in payment for gas is almost two. After the gas proportional “caught up” and the bills for heating and hot water.
In 2017, the authorities promise the price of gas will not increase. But the electricity price will rise again – the last stage, prices to zaplanirovanno the market level in March.
At the same time in 2016 for subsidies to vulnerable population groups in the state budget provided for about 40 billion, in 2017 is expected to increase to 47 to 51 billion.
The social standards at the same time raised overall by 16.1% – more than expected at the end of 2016, inflation (12%).
From 1 December the minimum wage was 1600 UAH, the cost of living – 1544 UAH, and the minimum pension – 1227 UAH. As noted by Prime Minister of Ukraine Volodymyr Groysman, the average pension increased by 117 UAH. “These are small money, but it is a step forward,” – said Groisman.
From 1 January 2017 it is planned to increase the minimum wage to RS 3200.
“PanAmSat” done noise not only in Ukraine but all over the world. The story began a year before the scandal with the leak of confidential documents to the Panamanian law, the company Mossack Fonseca, which was engaged in registration of offshore companies. The paper is carefully examined by a group of journalists, which is April 3 in 2016, and published materials on “Panamanian history”. Already on may 9 the database was opened to the public.
Just “the Panama document” appeared 643 “Ukrainian” offshore, however, not all the records was listed the names, some names, on the contrary, duplicated. Particular attention was paid to records related to the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko – not sold (passed in a “blind trust”) “Roshen”. The head of state on the scandal reacted quickly and asked the lawyers to explain why it has not violated the law.
The lawyers of our firm and the ICU, who were responsible for the transfer of assets Poroshenko, in the end, denied committing money transfers abroad.
“PanAmSat” the country was quiet, and, as in the discredited States, in Ukraine after the “offshore business” almost nothing has changed. Was undertaken for the investigation of National anti-corruption Bureau (NAB) had not brought the owners of offshore companies any specific allegations.
Condominiums for everyone
From 1 July in Ukraine, the revolution began in the housing sector – Hoo in Ukraine has lost its function, and instead residents of apartment buildings began to create the Association of owners of condominiums. Those who do not have time to 1 July to determine the form of ownership, came under the state governors.
By November, the condominium has teamed up residents approximately 25% of the housing stock, calculated in the “Support”. In many enterprises, which includes residents of several homes.
In General, experts assess utility revolution positively, but there is a significant disadvantage. The housing condition in the country leaves much to be desired: overhaul in most high-rise buildings has not been conducted since independence, and the locals have no funds to Finance the robot.
In test mode, the system of e-declarations has earned 15 August, and in the full – 1 September. The launch of electronic Declaration in Ukraine was associated with a considerable number of scandals – a matter of software, security information, etc.
But the real shock for ordinary Ukrainians and the world community experienced after the access to the register of declarations was open to everyone – it turned out that Ukraine is not a poor country, just the wealth concentrated in the hands of powerful people. For example, deputies of the Verkhovna Rada declared a total of 12.6 billion UAH average UAH 29 million each, and in addition to them, collection, hours, apartments, houses, cars and paintings. The members of the Cabinet indicated in the declarations of nearly 160 million.
The first criminal proceedings on the facts of illicit enrichment on the basis of analysis of information in electronic declarations was opened on November 17. In addition, e-Declaration worked as aiming for thieves after MPs, judges, security forces and thousands of civil servants reported his wealth in Ukraine have recorded at least five robberies officials.
The second phase of electronic Declaration starts from 1 January 2017 to report on your income needs will all be civil servants, middle managers, or persons who provide public services. In particular, this category includes Directors of state enterprises, heads of government agencies, utility companies, police, notaries, deputies of local councils, valuers, auditors, and Directors of schools and universities.
Cooperation with the IMF
On 14 September, after a year pereryva, the international monetary Fund (IMF) has finally approve the transfer of Ukraine of the third tranche loan under the program of expanded financing (EFF). The size of this tranche amounted to $ 1 billion. Just program worked for Ukraine of about $ 17 billion of which have already been allocated 7,7 billion dollars.
IMF 3 Oct published an updated Memorandum of cooperation with Ukraine, which was received the third tranche. Then Ukraine has promised the IMF:
- to reduce the list of those who before retiring;
- to tighten the criteria for receiving minimal pension;
- to create the conditions under which it will be profitable to declare actual income (unshadowing of wages);
- from 2017 to Fund supplements to pensions from the state budget, not PF;
- to expand the base of taxpayers ERUs;
- consolidate the legislation on the pension system (currently there are 20 laws).
At the same time representatives of the Cabinet have repeatedly stated that to raise the retirement age are not collected and will communicate to the IMF the inappropriateness of such changes.
In addition, until the end of 2016 Kyiv expected to receive the fourth tranche of the IMF (about us $ 1.3 billion), but the Fund has not rendered the Ukrainian issue on the agenda of the Board of Directors.
Year without gas from Russia
25 November 2016, exactly a year since Ukraine is living without gas purchases from the Russian “Gazprom”. All this time the country would fuel domestic production and reverse supply from EU countries – Slovakia, Poland and Romania. Last heating season was also completed without the use of Russian gas.
From Russian gas “Naftogaz” refused signed “winter pack” warm winter, describing the cause of the unacceptable price. However, it is possible that in this heating season with “Gazprom” still will have to negotiate the 2016-17 winter that is colder than the previous.
The Nationalization Of PrivatBank
Despite the relatively early adoption of the state budget, the Ukrainians did not remain without surprises “under the tree”. In December the whole country is in panic followed the situation with PrivatBank, which had long been there were disturbing rumors. December 18-19, the dam burst – the government announced the nationalisation of the largest Bank of Ukraine. The Finance Ministry bought the shares of “Private” for a symbolic 1 UAH.
The whole procedure of nationalization eventually took 72 hours, but the customers of “Privat” have time to be nervous – individuals EN masse “run-out” ATM, withdrawing cash, and businessmen spent a few days with blocked accounts, from-for what many are having problems not only with the payment of salaries to employees, but also with the tax.
After the transfer of all shares of “Private” to the state, the ua has burst new scandal – ex-Rogovtseva Bank and the NBU began to accuse each other of “murder” of the financial institution. According to the national Bank, the cause of nationalization, “Privat” was the loss of Bank liquidity and the failure of leadership standards. But the ex-beneficiary of the Bank Igor Kolomoisky believes that the Bank purposely “strangled” artificially inflated requirements of the NBU. However, the parties to the conflict in one voice assured – time will tell who was right.
PrivatBank will now be checked within six months, then the government hopes to stabilize the situation with the capital of companies and re-sell the Bank to private owners. According to forecasts of the head of the NBU Valeria Gontareva, all it will take from one year to three years.