12 February marks two years since the signing of the second Minsk agreement. They signed during debaltsevskogo boiler after 16-hour marathon negotiations leaders “Norman Quartet” at the presidential Palace in the Belarusian capital. During these two years, more than ten times declared a ceasefire, tried to dissolve heavy weapons, to allow access for the OSCE to all occupied territory and an exchange of prisoners. Probably only in the question of exchange of prisoners, though little able to move, freeing about 70 people, including Nadezhda Savchenko, “cyborg” Taras Kolodiy, Vladimir Zhemchugova, Yuri Suprun, and others. In the two years of the Minsk agreement, none of the item was not performed, and not through the fault of Ukraine. There is no doubt that Minsk prolong and this year, because the leaders of “Norman Quartet” has already managed to assert its inevitability. But for anybody not a secret that this format of negotiations has stalled. Russia hopes that the anger of Washington, Berlin and Paris after the elections will change at the mercy of the issue of the war in the Donbas and the annexation of Crimea can be solved behind the back of Ukraine. Clearly, these prerequisites have not yet traced, but about the possibility of a “big deal” between Russia and the USA speak more often. According to experts, the West ought to increase military and financial support to Ukraine. And Ukraine is to accelerate the reform process and of internal transformations. And, of course, not to give up on the possible change of format of negotiations, suddenly that happens.
Discrepancies “Minsk”: everyone interprets the agreement as he wants
Signed on 12 February, the second Minsk agreement has replaced the “Minsk-1” which was concluded during the ilovayskiy of the boiler in August-September 2015. Both agreements consider losing. But “Minsk-2” has even been dubbed a ticking time bomb. The first paragraphs of the documents are almost identical. But in the so-called political part of the second Minsk agreement surprises begin. In paragraph 11 of pledged “special status” of Donbass by amending transitional provisions of the Constitution of Ukraine.
“Constitutional reform in Ukraine with the entry into force by the end of the year 2015 new Constitution, involving as a key element of decentralization (taking into account the characteristics of individual regions of Donetsk and Lugansk regions, agreed with representatives of these districts) and the adoption of the permanent law on the special status individual regions of Donetsk and Lugansk regions in accordance with the measures specified in note 1 to the end of 2015”, – stated in the 11th paragraph of the Minsk agreements.
Note 1 refers to the law on special order of local government in certain districts of Donetsk and Lugansk regions, which are abbreviated as “law on the special status”. It provides: the right of linguistic definition for each resident of Donbass; an Amnesty of persons associated with events in Donbass (according to the law on Amnesty except for those who committed serious or particularly serious crime); the right of the Central Executive authorities to conclude with the relevant local authorities economic, social and cultural agreements; promotion of transboundary cooperation of Donbass with Russia and others.
But nowhere in the Minsk agreements and the law on the special status was not told about the veto ORDO in matters of foreign policy of Ukraine, on which so insist the militants. That is, they just want to block a future accession of Ukraine to the EU and NATO.
“Nowhere in the Minsk agreement is not defined the meaning of “special status”. “So-called leaders ORDO insist that this form of federalism. This means complete autonomy, which does not exist in any Federal state in the world, even in Russia, and in addition to the “special status” veto power over fundamental policy issues of Ukraine, especially in matters of foreign policy,” said “Segodnia” a senior researcher at the Royal Institute of international Affairs (Chatham House) James Sherr.
In the political part of the second Minsk agreement a lot of ambiguity. That is why Russia and Russian-backed militants interpret “Minsk” in his own way, manipulating the situation, bringing it to the point of absurdity. It is clear that to carry out the agreement, at least in Ukraine and the Western partners of the country, they do not intend to.
“During these two years the Minsk agreements are not implemented. Because the first point is security. Without the first paragraph to talk about the second, third, twenty-fifth is illogical. From my point of view the agreement, unfortunately (or was it done deliberately, or accidentally, I don’t know), are written in such a way that it does not have a single interpretation. And this is a huge problem, because each side interprets them differently,” said “Segodnia” the Deputy Minister on the issues of the temporarily occupied territories and internally displaced persons Georgy Tuka.
“Hybrid aggression of Russia against Ukraine implemented with the political aim of its suppression, the destruction of the sovereignty of Ukraine and return it in the sphere of geopolitical influence of Russia. The achievement of this goal envisages to achieve through three political demands formulated before the start of a hybrid war: their implementation (together or separately) could witness the defeat of Ukraine. This federalization of Ukraine, the official status of the Russian language as the second state and change in foreign policy that is legally recorded, the refusal of Ukraine’s European and Euro-Atlantic integration”
In the monograph of the Director of the strategic studies Institute of the NAS of Ukraine Vladimir Gorbulin “Global hybrid war: Ukrainian front” says that the format of the Minsk talks was based on the understanding of the nature of the conflict as a domestic, which permanently limits the effectiveness of diplomatic efforts in Kiev. “Hybrid aggression of Russia against Ukraine implemented with the political aim of its suppression, the destruction of the sovereignty of Ukraine and return it in the sphere of geopolitical influence of Russia. The achievement of this goal envisages to achieve through three political demands formulated before the start of a hybrid war: their implementation (together or separately) could witness the defeat of Ukraine. This federalization of Ukraine, the official status of the Russian language as the second state and change in foreign policy that is legally recorded, the refusal of Ukraine’s European and Euro-Atlantic integration”, – referred to in the monograph.
A constant escalation as an element of destabilization of Ukraine and put pressure on the West
According to the former representative of Ukraine in the political subgroup of the Trilateral contact group of the Novel Immortal, over time, the Minsk agreements are just as much a ranking of the individuals that they concluded. “The Russians were around 80%, that’s even with the Minsk agreements and dabble. For the Ukrainians, what, 6-7% up to date. For Merkel there are many now 18%? Here is their price. For Hollande, how much? 3%? That’s all, we got the answer to the question. Based on this, the greatest capitalization where? In The North? So let there with polar bears and working on the implementation of the Minsk agreements”, – said “Segodnia” Immortal.
But without implementing the first security points of the Minsk agreement is impossible to ensure a stable ceasefire in Donbass. Without a doubt, the first and second “Minsk” prevented a large-scale offensive of the Russian regular army and the mass death of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians. But the bill has 10 thousand dead and the number is growing, which proves once again that the Kremlin is not interested in a cease-fire. While a year ago it seemed that everything is going to freeze the conflict.
All Ukrainian and Western experts have traced a pattern: with the approaching date of important negotiations on settling the situation in Donbas Russia and militants organize another escalation of hostilities. The fact that they never complied with the cease-fire for anybody not a secret. But almost always, the militants organize provocations, deliberately shelling Ukrainian positions of the Minsk agreements prohibited weapons. Very often the militants shelled their positions to accuse Ukraine of disrupting the agreements to the OSCE.
To the next escalation in the town, the militants came on the eve of the visit of Petro Poroshenko in Berlin on 30 January for talks with Chancellor Angela Merkel. In the end, the Ukrainian President had to interrupt the visit and to return to Ukraine. But more interesting that all this happened immediately after the first telephone conversation between Vladimir Putin and Donald trump. Ukrainian scientists and experts, as already wrote “Segodnia” I believe that in this way the Kremlin has decided to raise the stakes in negotiations with the United States. They say that Europe (mostly Germany), which the States entrusted to solve the Ukrainian question, unable to cope, so it is better to give a solution to this problem of Russia. That is, as explained in the Institute of world politics, the Kremlin wants the us once again began to see Ukraine through the prism of Russia, and not as an independent player.
In the United States is not in a hurry to refute this thesis. A dry statement of concern of the state Department about the escalation in Avdeevka and not a word about the Russian aggression only reinforces the concerns about the possible “big deal” is the big deal between Moscow and Washington. Now, as seems, in the relations between Russia and the United States, everything revolves around sanctions. A couple of days ago the White House spokesman Sean Spicer said that the sanctions associated with the occupation of Crimea,will be saved. But he hasn’t said a word about sanctions associated with the Donbas. This correlated with the fact that he said recently Donald trump: “the United States does not know who controlled, and monitored whether all the forces involved in the conflict in the Donbass. We find out, I will be surprised, but we’ll see.” In addition, the Washington Post, citing its own sources, reported that the adviser to trump on national security Mike Flynn a month before the inauguration of the privately discussed with the Russian Ambassador, the issue of lifting sanctions. Sam Flynn has managed to deny it, but no smoke without fire, as we know, does not happen.
Added fuel to the fire by the statement of the Ambassador of Germany in Ukraine, Ernst Reichel: “not Necessarily that the elections in the Donbass can take place only when there will be no Russian troops or at each of the city administration will be posted Ukrainian flag”. As an example, he cited the recent parliamentary elections in the GDR, held in the presence of the Western group of Soviet forces during the Communist regime. Such a statement, Ambassador provoked a storm of criticism: a group of parliamentarians from the podium urged his colleagues to boycott the reception at the German Embassy in honor of the 25th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations, and the foreign Ministry issued a sharp criticism of the Ambassador.
Someone called saying Reichel’s personal opinion, some ulterior motives Berlin. But returning to the second letter of the Minsk agreements, the withdrawal of “all foreign armed formations, military equipment and mercenaries” stated in clause 10. It is preceded by a section 9 with the wording: “the restoration of full control over the state border from the Ukrainian government throughout the conflict zone, which should begin on the first day after local elections and be completed after a comprehensive political settlement”. That is, the logic of the Minsk agreements, the withdrawal of Russian troops and mercenaries, as well as the transfer of border control to be held after the elections. It is clear that such developments cannot be considered as “legitimate” election at gunpoint and Russian flags to speak of.
Task maximum: to convince the West to take the side of Ukraine and, finally, to start the reform
According to some MPs, Ernst Reichel said nothing new. “In fact, he said what you say for quite some time. We know that for a long time used such a statement as “formula Steinmeier”. In fact, the German Ambassador to Ukraine revealed what the “formula Steinmeier”. Moreover, for the first time he had said almost the same words at the end of last year,” said “Segodnia” the people’s Deputy from “Batkivshchyna”, the former Deputy Prime Minister for European integration Hryhoriy Nemyria.
Poroshenko, by the way, after talks of the leaders of “Normandy” in Berlin on October 19 stated that the parties discussed the possibility of holding elections according to the “formula Steinmeier”. As already wrote “Segodnia” the so-called formula Steinmeier is one of the three blocks of the future Road map – a phased plan of implementation of the Minsk agreements. It needs to solve the eternal problem of a twofold interpretation of individual items of the Minsk agreements. A “road map” foreign Minister “Norman four” had to be before the end of November 2016. But all depends on the position of Russia, which has its own “Road map”, as well as its particular vision of the settlement of the situation in the Donbass. Still time to come to a common denominator, the foreign Ministers will try on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Bonn on 17 February.
“Formula Steinmeier” as it is known, has replaced “plan of Morel”. The idea of the then head of the German foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, first, Russia should fulfill its part of the Minsk agreement (cease fire, weapons of war and to partially withdraw its troops from the Donbass), then in the Donbas would be held elections, and only then Ukraine would get control of the border.
Ukraine here you need to be on exactly the same position. If the elections in the Donbass and the “formula Steinmeier,” then only on condition Kiev: first, the withdrawal of all regular Russian troops and mercenaries and the control over the border, the return of the occupied Donbass under the jurisdiction of Ukraine (our police, courts, prosecutors, CEC), and then the election. In this issue, more needs to activate the Ukrainian diplomacy that our Western partners are not treated the “formula Steinmeier” at the line of Kremlin propaganda. In fact, according to first Deputy Director of the Institute of world policy Serhiy SOLODKY, the Russian side was not configured to construct, it was total sabotage the Minsk agreements. The Kremlin expected the change of actors in key Western capitals. “We see the intensification of activity in the Washington-Moscow. And now we expect the same level of France and Germany”, – says SOLODKY.
The elections in the States to further confuse things: while trump understands, who supports the militants in the Donbas, his closest associates never tire of “refute” the negotiations with the Russian establishment for the lifting of sanctions. And the experts agree, if Washington will go to the easing of sanctions against the Kremlin, Brussels to keep them alone will be extremely difficult.
According to the Director of the Institute of world policy Alyona Hetmanczuk, Kiev does not need to wait until States will generate its policy towards Ukraine, if any at all. Ukraine needs first to take the initiative and come to US with proposals, which will be clearly articulated “red lines” on the one hand, and with another – to explain and communicate the new Administration why support for Ukraine’s States best the States themselves. If Ukraine will not be able to explain it, obviously there will be less chance that at the expense of the interests of Ukraine will be a “big deal”.
The situation in Germany is in favor of Ukraine – Merkel high chance of re-election for a fourth term. Shaken the scales in our direction and the French field. If a couple of weeks ago, the polls gave strong hit in the second round of the presidential elections two Pro-Russian candidates françois Fillon and marine Le Pen, now the situation has changed. After allegations of Fillon that, being a Deputy, he designed his wife’s assistant, and she received a salary from the budget for the work, where, its ratings collapsed. According to the latest polling Agency Opinionway, independent candidate and former economy Minister Emmanuel macron, who advocated a rapprochement between France and Germany, would have received 65% of the vote. His rival, the leader far right “National front” marine Le Pen in the second round would be supported by 35% of respondents. In the first round defeated Le Pen with 26% and macron have scored 23% of the vote. Thus, they move into the second round. Another 20% of voters would give their votes for the candidate from the party “the Republicans” françois Fillon.
“For Russia to implement the Minsk agreement, we need other tools Ukrainian and Western politicians. Especially in the military sphere, increasing the level of military and financial aid to Ukraine”
But this does not mean that Ukraine can relax and do nothing. “Work, work and work again over domestic security,” said Roman Bezsmertny. His opinion was shared by James Sherr, adding that the West should increase its financial and military assistance to Ukraine: “Russia To fulfill Minsk agreement, we need other tools Ukrainian and Western politicians. Especially in the military sphere, increasing the level of military and financial aid to Ukraine. I don’t think that the long-term continuation of the status quo (the failure of the Minsk agreements – Ed.) acting in favor of Russia. I think it is important to strengthen the position of Ukraine diplomatically, and politically to improve the situation in Ukraine, using this moment, this break, to a systemic transformation. It is absolutely not profitable for Russia. The Ukrainian side with the support of the West may continue this situation 10-20 years. Russia is not, Russia is not beneficial to the legal recognition ORDO. But Russia could use ONTO to undermine and destabilize Ukraine. If this is not possible – no game. From us it requires more determination, more powerful tools and strategic patience.”
According to Vladimir Gorbulin, in the near future the Kremlin may resort to the three scenarios of action against Ukraine: the scenario “Battle” scenario “Ultimatum” and the scenario “Degraded”. Scenario “Battle” – the offensive of the armed formations of Donbass, the Russian-supported forces from all directions. The script for “Ultimatum” – federalization and the actual desiredoceania Ukraine. And the scenario “Degraded” – the transformation of Ukraine into a “gray area” no man’s land of instability and frozen conflicts, doomed to gradual degradation. Which of these scenarios will be implemented, according to Gorbulin, nobody knows, but Ukraine should be ready for any of them.
