Society, to monitor the situation, sees that it is starting the actions that are the beginning of preparations for the next annexation, or the element of intimidation of Ukraine. The most plausible date of a possible Russian aggression is September 2020, which planned exercises “Kavkaz 2020”.
Many experts, assessing the activity of Russia for quite some time do not expect a radicalization in the Donbas and the Crimea. But things can happen otherwise. Hybrid war in Ukraine continues for more than six years. The world has adapted to it and even stopped noticing that there is always people dying.
Russia is not afraid of any international criticism or sanctions. It is a step by step weakens Ukraine. Annexing the Crimea, Russia is preparing for various possible options for resolution of events. Even to active armed resistance, which, as history has shown, did not happen.
But in Moscow to provide are unable. Almost immediately after the annexation, Ukraine has blocked the supply of water to Crimea through the North-Crimean channel. This has created a very threatening situation for the Crimea — this is the main source of water for the Peninsula. The result of the consistent position of Ukraine the water situation in Crimea is deteriorating from year to year and becoming more dramatic.
The Russians are unable to successfully diversify the supply of water to the Peninsula. If the Dnieper water will not be supplied through the channel: we can expect the global ecological catastrophe, and maybe even humanitarian crisis. Water has become a hybrid tool against Ukraine in response to the hybrid Russian aggression. Persistent drought, lack of water in Crimea has put Moscow in a difficult situation.
Moscow is preparing different scenarios and is ready for you to not only ensure the supply of water to Crimea, but to make the next step towards Ukraine and, at the same time and in relation to NATO, which Ukraine is trying to join.
Now on the Crimean Peninsula, an increasing number of Russian troops. The modern Crimea is a powerful Navy, more than thirty thousand Russian soldiers, two military airfield with hundreds of aircraft and helicopters. In addition, along the border with Ukraine placed about ninety thousand soldiers one hundred tanks and several thousand combat vehicles, artillery systems.
It is not clear, it is only bullying Ukraine to force her to accept the long-awaited Crimea and Moscow’s decision, or soon Ukraine and Europe will be embroiled in the next phase of military action?
I think that now there is an active work of the intelligence and diplomatic services of Russia in this direction. Putin seeks to answer the question: what would be the possible reaction of Ukraine and the West, if Russia is to decide on the next annexation. And this answer depends largely on what decision the Kremlin. From the point of view of Moscow is the best time for aggression.
The West is paralyzed by the virus and the pandemic. The EU is divided by a conflict of interest, France and Germany choosing economic priorities and closer to Russia. The United States is torn by the protests, which are superimposed on the presidential race.
In 2014, the Western world did not see the threat in the East of Europe, because you were too busy with their own problems. Now the situation is almost similar. If the countries of NATO and the EU have information from his intelligence about possible Russian aggression, they should speak and act here and now, not later.
Because then again, can be too late.