Ukraine is a state that is between the coincidence of its appearance (the miracle or the disaster of the collapse of the Soviet Union) and the need for evidence of his viability. Ukraine was unexpected, both for its citizens and for the international community.
Now, thirty years after its emergence, Ukraine is a state devoid of hope, but full of resentments, fears and inferiority complex, but not random in this world.
During these 30 years, the Ukraine never became a full-fledged state with a developed economy, social sphere and civil society. The state is, and developing Ukrainian society is not holistic.
But Ukraine became a part of geopolitics. We became a state, but not for himself, but for others oligarchs and international players. The Ukrainian state there is no serious mission in the world, but it turns out that it is necessary for all.
For example, Russia can not exist and develop without Ukraine, neither as enemy nor as a friend (“little sister”?). And Ukraine may survive and grow, and without Russia.
Historically, Russia to cope with any kind of hostile environment, capable of any historic breakthrough, but only together with Ukraine. And now a weak, but independent Ukraine is “birth trauma in Russia” that pulls Russia back into the past and down the world community, the countries of the outsider or rogue States.
In turn, Russia without Ukraine can only survive, be it in an aggressive rush, then in a phase of stagnation. But it is very long. Without Ukraine Russia is only possible aggressive survival in the international community, but not the occupation of a worthy place in the new pluralistic world’s strongest powers.
Moreover, hard shifting “birth trauma”, Russia can not afford the enemy of Germany or the United States. Moreover, she is very afraid of friendship-hate relationship with China.
The level of Russia’s presence in the world is the hatred for Ukraine, support for a terrorist organization and authoritarian regimes, not more. This isn’t a mission, and the inevitable historical condition, or the role of Russia in the modern world.
For Europe, after the Russian attack on the Ukraine, it became clear that for the first time since the Second world war, after 1945 in Europe may again arise a terrible war with Ukraine. Europe is not afraid of the Balkan crisis, but she is very afraid of the Russian-Ukrainian war, which caught Europe. The EU is afraid of that, but is afraid of Putin’s Russia. Therefore, Europe has an objective interest in oriented to the West in a living and strong Ukraine, but not in an insecure “podbryushe Europe” (as Churchill said), and not in the country, which Russia racked and blown to pieces, as it is now.
For the United States, after Russia, without declaring war treacherously attacked the defenseless Ukraine in 2014, it is very important to support, cooperate and defend Ukraine. Because Ukraine is a real “underbelly of Russia”. Since 1991, a closer base for the United States against Russia has never been and never will be. Any longer. It is still unknown who more pressure across the Ukraine — Russia or US to Russia.
Therefore, whoever became the President of the United States, in November 2020, America will strengthen its military-political presence in Ukraine. She has no other way and more effective way of pressure on Russia. Sanctions, energy, and computer wars, the negotiations, the arms race, support of domestic opposition — all this is secondary compared to the Ukraine, as a US ally against Putin’s Russia.
This is a 30-year result of the existence, but not development of Ukraine. She has never and will not disappear because we needed a large geopolitical players, but whether it will be a full-fledged state of free and wealthy citizens, patriots of their country — it’s hard to say. Or it remains convenient for the Western world and Russia, a way to keep Russia in its clear, aggressive, but unsound condition.