Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on conscription of reservists. For the first time in many years, the decree does not provide for specific terms of fees which may be indicative of the attempt of the Russian leadership to carry out covert mobilization for military aggression against neighboring countries, in particular, against Ukraine. Should we expect a new attack of Russia, “Apostrophe” explained the former head of the foreign intelligence Service, army General of Ukraine Mykola Malomuzh.
First of all, I want to note that Vladimir Putin has provided not only the mobilization throughout the country, but a number of large-scale screening, as they call them, exercises. Pay attention to what will be practiced offensive operations that can deploy large-scale or locally. Responsibility for their implementation will lie with the Russian defense Ministry, Regardie and other law enforcement agencies. Therefore, it is both a powerful political gesture in the direction of peace and NATO as a global competitor and prepare for the real local or global operations.
This is done in order to demonstrate strategic readiness to carry out any large scale operations against NATO, and, in the long run against China. Demonstrates how to upgrade the armed forces, availability of weapons — missiles, medium and short range, strategic and hypersonic nuclear weapons, aircraft and the like. On the other hand, Putin is demonstrating his superiority in the confrontation with Ukraine, is preparing its forces in case of threat from her, and also hints of Belarus, that there were “adequate” and were more submissive.
Putin shows that he has the capacity — organizational, mobilization, financial and military. But since these teachings will mean the mobilization of all resources of the country, they are the reason also in order to rally the population. Because military reserve is a civilian people, which check whether they are ready for the big events. So for Putin it is important to maintain appropriate attitudes among people, because the successes of others he is not — falling economy, falling energy prices, powerful coronavirus, and as a result — falling of a rating. Now he is trying to unite the people, and the support in this case is a referendum on amendments to the Constitution of the Russian Federation. It is clear that the Kremlin will show the result of the vote, which they need — I guess that 70 or even 80%. Putin will get a chance to extend his term indefinitely.
But in order to do this, any reason, they will say that there is an extremely powerful Union companies. Russia has often used military exercises to raise the morale of the people and get them to support the commander-in-chief Putin at least for a short period. The mobilization will bring together recruits and their relatives, abstracts will be used is enormous: we have threats, we unite in unison for the whole of Russia, Putin will not allow her collapse, he is able to do it.
But I think that large-scale war, Putin will not lead — it is not necessary. He intends to show to the opponents that has an Armada of tens of millions of people. His method — to put pressure economically, politically, threat of war, but not to start it. To create political forces that will be bet, to create an economic shadow formats, to introduce agents to form regional black elite, to provide impact information. But large-scale offensive war against Ukraine or Belarus, now is not.
If Putin will attack Ukraine, it will be a real war and confrontation with the Ukraine, but with NATO, because the Kremlin will come to the borders of the Alliance. Plus, the Ukraine now has the status of a member of the Program extended features, but because NATO is not going to be particularly neutral. The world, which is still defiantly not participated in the conflict with Russia, begin to openly unite against her, all the cards are opened, the mask is reset. The first thing to do is disconnect Russia from the world market. Therefore, Putin will not agree to such steps, except that we will be weakened, destabilized, but it is a different scenario. And in the current situation the attack on Ukraine will lead to huge losses and confrontation with global players. Putin and his entourage understand that this war they will not win. So can do only suicide.
In addition, a large-scale war with Ukraine and Belarus will not be supported by the greater part of Russian society. The occupation of the Crimea was supported, because he was always “Russian,” as they say. The conflict with Ukraine in the Donbass, the Kremlin provides for a civil war. But large-scale fighting will mean a tremendous sacrifice, and there be grounds to bring them before the Russians. Putin is constantly drawn to the rhetoric of world war II, or as he calls it the great Patriotic war. But these are completely different things. At that time, the volunteers went to war against Nazi Germany, regardless of the team from Moscow. Now I will be talking about the outright seizure of foreign territories.
If to imagine that the Kremlin decides to war, the majority of the Russian elite oppose as made famous scientists and artists — and even some retired military against the occupation of Crimea and the war in the Donbass. But now the protests will become more widespread. The idea that “we are the gatherer of Russian lands” will not be enough. Against this will be the Union of soldiers ‘ mothers and representatives of the local elites. Rise national minorities of Tatarstan, the Caucasus and the Republic of Mari El, for example, already seething. And Chechnya is not only under Ramzan Kadyrov. National elites do not want to fight, some are ready now to fight against the regime. If the Kremlin will be decided on a broad military offensive, it may be the end of Putin and inner revolution. In Moscow have to calculate it.
Therefore, to assume that Putin will now go to war, somewhat naive. Of course, the Ukrainian Ministry, and American officials make certain statements on pre-emption. Now the Russians really work out the capture of the North-Crimean channel and the gasket corridor to the Crimea from Mariupol, landing on the coast of the Azov sea. But this is only because they consider different scenarios — just as they were preparing different scenarios for the occupation of the Crimea from 1992, and used one of them in the moment. The next moment may occur if in the Ukrainian society, it will destabilize the AP razbalansirovat elite and power structures. When the Kremlin will see that there is no unity of society, state, security sector, the intelligence sector, then perhaps the deployment scenario of further destabilization, for example, the southern regions will start to ask the Kremlin about some help. Today prerequisites for this yet.
But the current Ukrainian government has no means of consolidation, unprofessional trying to form a regional public consensus, and the model of development of the armed forces of Ukraine. For example, Russia makes missiles and planes of the 5th and 6th generation, and we can’t take to supply the armed forces with tank “Oplot” or to provide work Bureau “Luch”. We need to adopt their positions. And we just look — “but if Putin will attack?”. Of course, the threat should be assessed. But the main question is how we will be ready. Give him a reason to attack or do not give at all. In 2014, the authorities came to lay people who are unable to pool resources for defence and security. Now it is necessary to take into account the negative experience and avoid repetition.
Mykola Malomuzh, the former head of the foreign intelligence Service, especially for “Apostrophe”