Actual (Bulgaria): Putin will not forgive

There is no doubt that Putin has not forgotten and forgiven Lukashenko, how he humiliated him on 9 may, giving a “Victory”, and that is why the Russian President is so irrational insists on holding the parade on June 24 in Moscow.

Everything is so obvious that no one even tries to disguise it, says “Belarusian partisan”. Chief editor of “echo of Moscow” Alexei Venediktov, for example, explicitly States that “Lukashenka is Putin’s victory. Putin had no parade, and he had. And Putin was offended. I just know it. I can see what the economic policy of the Russian Federation carried out against Belarus in the last two months.”

Parade and covid-19

Based on information from a number of sources, the may 9 parade in Moscow did not take place for one very simple reason — during the preparation contracted a huge number of people. Initially “retired” from the rehearsals of the parade tried to replace people from other military units, but in the end it was decided to postpone the date of the meeting. Apparently, the risks were so great that there was danger of the mass distribution of coronavirus in Russia. Indirect evidence of the April number of reports in the Russian media about the infected in military schools and military units in different regions of the country.

Now — in early June — there is no information about the participants of the rehearsal of the parade on may 9 — how many soldiers of the Russian army is sick, how much the survivors and the dead. The problem was solved? Of course not. Just a parade should be held, come what may. No one had the slightest doubt about “exactly who won the Second world war.”

In part, this is “guilty” of Lukashenko, who, “smiling through his mustache,” not only not afraid to hold a parade, and even “Troll” the President of Russia, comparing the rejection of events with surrender. No matter what happens, even if you catch all of the Russian military, the Victory parade will be held at any cost. It is a matter of principle. The parade will demonstrate the new and powerful weapon of Russia — su-57 and MiG-31K. These machines will probably be produced for the domestic market.

Guided by similar considerations, Putin said that the Victory parade on red square on 24 June. “We will hold it on the same day that the legendary, the historic victory parade in 1945, when the red square were soldiers who fought for defending Moscow and Leningrad, the fighting in Stalingrad, and liberated Europe,” — said the Russian President. The same day Vladimir Putin ordered to start preparing for this event, while maintaining the highest level of security. The task was entrusted to Sergei Shoigu.

The Minister of defence, in turn, realizes that everything bad, and in fact to protect the military impossible. And not just from the fashion industry, but also from the desire of Putin, although we see that it is not so much wants. The result: June 2, during a meeting on the preparations for the parade, he said that “to participate in the parade allowed soldiers with immunity to coronavirus and no signs of infectious diseases.” In addition, he demanded that “was excluded from any contact of the personnel of the main calculation with soldiers and civilians not involved in the rehearsal,” and explained that “everywhere where there are rehearsals, there are field medical stations, equipped with everything necessary,” and ” disinfection all areas and technology.”

The commander of the Land forces Oleg Salyukov said some details of the parade, saying that “all parade participants will be isolated, they will be tested for the coronavirus at least 3 times a week, all facilities that will host military and machinery will be disinfected, including the training ground in Alabino near Moscow, where the rehearsal. That’s all “performance”… the Salukis quietly corrects his boss, his stories about the soldiers with the “immunity” opens a new page in the history of Virology that not read without laughter.

Salyukov said the truth: for the safety of the military actually will be done with minimum effort, and we, knowing the Russian reality, can not doubt. In a week or two after the parade, the coronavirus will start its triumphant March across the country. Everything is concentrated in Moscow, but there and the rest of Russia — Sergei Shoigu, will be held a mini-parades in nine cities-heroes, and in 19 towns, where the headquarters of military districts, the Navy and the unification of the armed forces. Will involve about 64 thousand, 1 thousand 850 pieces of equipment and 511 planes. Whether the participants of all these parades to test for coronavirus at least three times a week? I think you yourself do not believe.

When is the parade?

Apparently, Lukashenko, Putin wins and this: to hold the parade on may 9 was much safer than on June 24. As of 9 may in Russia was infected with about 198 thousand 676 people, and as of 3 June for about 432 thousand 277. All of this official statistics, which absolutely nobody believes, especially after the scandalous publications in Finаnсiаl Times and The very surprised to quality Uork Times, to doubt the real number of deaths in Russia and believes that the real number could be 70% higher than the official.

Well, “enemies slandered Russia” is understandable, but even the Russian media do not hide the apparent “misunderstanding in the statistics”: for example, the mathematician Boris Ovchinnikov, analyze the data of the operational headquarters, found that in the period 30 April to 24 may, subject to the official statistics the number of cases was four times over 99. Such a coincidence is not excluded, but unlikely. This probability is 0.011%, or 1 case of 9 thousand 350 attempts. 20 APR 99 in addition to 4 two-digit numbers appear more than once. One of those numbers was 98 — all, it appeared 6 times. The probability of such coincidence in statistics, equal to 0,003% (or 1 in 15 thousand 850).

Russian media also drew attention to the mortality rate in Moscow, which is 20% of the total during the period under review. Over the last month, according to official data of the city authorities, was issued 11 846 death certificates, which is by 15.6% more compared to the previous month and by 18.4% compared to the year 2019.

Why did this happen? From the beginning of the epidemic of coronavirus in Russia, the local authorities, following the instructions of the Kremlin, began to register deaths from coronavirus as dead “of pneumonia”, from “acute respiratory illness”. The initial goal was not to show the real data to hide them. To date, the number of infected people in Russia even according to official figures have doubled compared to may 9, how many actually infected and how many of them will be on June 24? I don’t even want to think how scary would be a non-stats after the parade in 28 cities.

Who will participate in the parade

It was originally planned that the parade in Moscow “will bring” the maximum number of leaders of other countries to show them “our victory”, “the power of the Russian weapon” to scare them and ask them to lift the sanctions. However, this did not happen — the Kremlin has sent out invitations to world leaders, but few agreed. Their presence at the parade was confirmed by the presidents of Moldova, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and leaders of the unrecognized South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The possible presence of the President of Serbia and leader of the unrecognized DND — it’s not science fiction, and probably this will happen if the Kremlin decides to “invite them on an official level”.

At the same time, the invitation of foreign guests is not much use. Their “caliber” is obviously not the same, but their involvement leads to interesting ideas. Putin just can’t keep the “heavy social distance,” how may 9, which creates a potential risk of coronavirus infection and Russian “Beau Monde” and invited “satellites”. Yes, he seriously offended by Lukashenko, but is he ready to jeopardize the epidemic not only Russia, but also himself.


Putin knows that, although his official rating of 27%, in reality it does not exceed 8-15%. He also understands that Russia is now the maximum worry on the timing of the current crisis: he is stronger than the crisis of October 1993 and August 1998. Since then, his trust rating has never been above 5. Against this background, the Victory parade should raise the rating of Putin, but I guess not. To the question “are you encouraging Victory parade” 80% of respondents answered in the negative. Only 5% of citizens believe that the parade should be held on June 24. Only 4% trust the information about the war, broadcast in the media, and consider it objective.

In the coming months, Putin will not be easy. Need a holiday at any cost. This shows that the Russian government has been living by the principle “after us the deluge.” From this point of view, in reality there is no difference, is one “weird” action, more or less, but who cared, what will become of the population.