Russkaya Germaniya (Russian Germany): closed sky hit Europe

What was needed the open skies Treaty and which countries signed it?

The agreement, which would allow the participating countries to conduct overflights of each other’s territories to monitor for air weapons, was proposed by U.S. President Dwight D. Eisenhower (Dwight Eisenhower), but States the major participants signed it in 1992 after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Joined the Treaty, the U.S., Russia, Germany, Canada and a number of other countries. In force the agreement entered in 2002 and currently brings together 35 countries.

Under the agreement, flights of reconnaissance aircraft can be made according to special protocols and pre-approved routes. During the flight on Board must be representative of the country over which the flight passes.

Today, many countries already have a powerful spy satellites that can make better pictures of the territories than reconnaissance planes. However, for example, a number of countries in Eastern Europe such satellites there, and for them, the Treaty on open skies was a good way to find out what is happening next door big neighbour.

Over who most actively flying Germany, the USA and Russia?

Information about all flights is in the public domain. The contract sets out how many flights undertakes to adopt, in the year of each country. The quota for Russia and Belarus (they are considered together) and the US — 42 flight.

Moscow, however, flies much more active in Washington. According to statistics, in 2019, most of the flights — about 55% — have made the European States. The share of Russia and Belarus account for 30.4% of flights, while the share of North America (USA and Canada) — total 14.2%.

Most of the countries we flew over Europe (63,3%), followed by Russia and Belarus (30.7%) and significantly behind North America (6.1 percent). With regard to map of flights, Russia and Belarus most actively fly over the countries of Europe and North America, and European and American obleceni are primarily interested in Russia and its neighbors.

Germany in 2019, according to the number of performed flights (11 flights) took the fourth place after Russia and Belarus (41), USA (18) and Ukraine (12). And most active fly over Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. The Federal Republic of Germany took only 3 aircraft — two from Russia and one from Ukraine.

Why trump has decided to withdraw from the Treaty?

The American side believes that Russia violate the Treaty. In particular, install on the aircraft a more sophisticated means of observation than that provided by the agreements, and not let reconnaissance aircraft on the territory of the Kaliningrad region and near the borders of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Another claim to Russia for refueling reconnaissance aircraft, the Russian side allocates the Crimean airfields, although the international community does not recognize Crimea as Russian territory. Thus Moscow wants to legitimize the Crimea.

In Russia deny the accusations and claim that the US themselves violate the Treaty by entering the maximum range of the flights over the territory of the Hawaiian Islands, the restrictions for flying over the Aleutian archipelago and placing “unreasonable limits on the altitude of the surveillance aircraft”.

What will happen next and why Europe will suffer?

USA out of contract only six months. For the next six months, they have already reserved a record number of flights. In summer, the remaining countries participating in the agreement will meet to negotiate about the future of the agreement. Russia has already stated that it will implement plan B, but what it will be is unknown. If the contract can be maintained, it is obvious that NATO without the participation of the United States will continue to fly over Russia and Belarus, and Vice versa.

However, Europe may face two other problems. First, Russia may redirect its forces from the U.S. and the EU. Thus, if the selected European countries, the quota will not change, will be that will benefit only Moscow, which will increase the number of observation flights in Europe.

The second problem — some European countries do not have as modern a fleet as the United States, so they will lose much of the information from ally about the actions of Russia. Especially hard this can hit Ukraine, which is due to fly us aircraft can monitor the movements of military in the uncontrolled East of its territory.