Turkey quarreled with Europe. What does it mean?

Here a wise, wealthy and full of self-confidence of Western Europeans began to move, defending the unity and security of private information and the mental field. No, RT is not banned or for some projects of Rossotrudnichestvo covered, and from the political dialogue did not refuse. Now the Russians, who in addition to the foreign Ministry of the verbiage is a little cover openly subversive and hostile activity in the information field of many European countries, condescending attitude. Want dialogue. Well, trade. And who doesn’t?

But the Turks do not want dialogue. Migration wave, a series of terrorist attacks, the perpetrators of which were the fanatics of Islam, made Muslims unwanted guests and neighbors for many Europeans.

To add here are not entirely unfounded image of the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his reign as such who are not ashamed of authoritarian rule, human rights violations, the persecution of the opposition and the media. And here you have the government of Turkey has become a very convenient target for attacks within the heated election political environment in Germany and the Netherlands.

The essence of the current of the next crisis in relations between some countries of the EU and Europe (Germany, Holland, Austria, Switzerland) with Turkey, at first glance, simple. European governments have banned the members of the Turkish government to carry out propaganda in the Turkish communities. The Turkish government has high hopes for the voices of fellow of the European countries in the upcoming referendum in Turkey that in case of successful for the ruling party (and even better to say, personally, for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan) the result will radically change the shape of the political system.

I wonder if that political dialogue with Ukraine needs to Turks is nothing more than a cover operation for Turkey’s rapprochement with Russia?

If very briefly, the implementation of the referendum in Turkey’s political initiatives will complete political reform, Erdogan will turn Turkey from a parliamentary-presidential Republic to presidential-parliamentary, or, possibly, just presidential.

Full Executive power in the country is concentrated in the hands of the President. Even the post of Prime Minister will be cancelled. Some analysts call it the “American model”. I would not jump to such comparisons, because the balance of power in the United States, as we now observe, is a much more complex system than the distribution of responsibilities between the Parliament and the President. In the United States is a specific function are still very independent courts and civil society. In Turkey this is not and I fear will not.

But since the main beneficiary of the positive result of the referendum will become acting President, the Turkish authorities seriously came to campaigning. Moreover, many observers argue that the country is in relation to the political reforms Erdogan is divided roughly 50: 50. Of course, in this situation the votes of millions of Turkish migrants in European countries — the weight of gold.

But the governments of Germany, Holland, Austria and Switzerland (the country with the largest Turkish communities in Europe) decided that the transfer of Turkish political discourse, the split and tension in their society — it is too much to Turkish electoral political races across Europe.

Somewhere it all happened within the framework of diplomatic decency. But, as in Germany and Holland, not without its scandals.

In particular, in Germany banned campaign meetings with the Turkish community, the Minister of foreign Affairs of Turkey. And Minister of youth Affairs of Turkey, accompanied by police actually pushed out by car from Holland to Germany. While Dutch law enforcement authorities banned Turkish Minister even to enter the territory of their own, the Turkish Consulate in Rotterdam.

The Turks know how to be emotional and without scandals. In this situation, to hold back did not need. Therefore, the statements of the Turkish side, the Germans again were “fascists”.

Well, if you do not agitate, seriously and permanently damage relations with Germany, the Turks managed. If the ban on campaigning for a Turkish official factors on German soil, many in Germany believed that it was wrong and criticized the relevant decision of the Federal government, the accusations of fascism for Germans is…. Did not find clear in the Ukrainian political context of the comparison. In a word, noticed and disagreed with this comparison, not only the Germans.

And here again there is another hamlet’s question — what will happen with Turkey in terms of foreign policy?

The problem is that the Europeans and Turks between them no longer special precautions not only in the choice of phraseology, but in action, it’s not the result of recent diplomatic incidents. It is rather the logical development of a very complex political process in relations between Turkey and the EU.

In fact, as the Ukraine in twenty years, even at times seeming declarative, but of European integration, found that has no idea about the possible consequences, time frame, the result of this process, and Turkey after 50 years of official negotiations decided not to pretend to believe in the prospect of EU membership. And the EU didn’t even try this time to convince Turkey otherwise.

Attempts to move to the pragmatic relationship — you give us money and bezviz, and we’ll keep wave of migration, too, was unsuccessful.

More complex relations Turkey now has with the United States. In addition to complicated the Kurdish question, a problem, Fethullah Gullen, the issuance of which from the US is so eager Erdogan.

In addition, Turkey is deeply disappointed at the response of the NATO countries in the Syrian crisis, attempting a military coup.

On the background of these problems with traditional allies and partners, of course, it’s hard not to notice the March 10 visit to Moscow Erdogan.

Traditionally a wide audience in Ukraine is interested in only one thing. And this one looked very unique. The words “Ukraine”, “Crimea”, “Crimean Tatars” at the final press conference Putin and Erdogan did not sound.

But we heard that the stage of normalizing relations after Erdogan said, “we are deeply saddened of the incident” is completed. Moreover, the “friendship between our countries has demonstrated the ability to overcome any exams difficulties and provocations.”

So, our Ukrainian problems, along with downed Russian bomber should be considered the exams, difficulties and provocations, which are friendly to the Turkish government and the hostile power of Russia has already overcome?

Of course, it must be noted that the plans of cooperation between Russia and Turkey are now really big.

Something of these plans, for example, the declared desire not only to restore trade turnover (in the incident with the Russian bombers and the fall in energy prices declined from $ 32 billion in 2015 to $ 17 billion in 2016), but also to increase it to $ 100 billion. The United States can be called a sort of political grandstanding.

If energy (gas and nuclear) or trade is traditional in recent years, themes for the Turkish-Russian dialogue, you will not notice as much during a press conference of leaders of Russia and Turkey it was about intelligence cooperation in the defense industry, humanitarian and information spheres, it was difficult.

And that, in addition to the aforementioned hamlet’s question raises another very practical issue before the Ukrainian diplomacy — and what is our agenda for dialogue with Turkey? What we want to achieve? Finally, there is another question — can we trust Turkey?

It’s not useless questions to a series of events at a high political level between our countries. This spring a number of meetings scheduled at the level of presidents and Prime Ministers.

It seems that Turkey is now little that you need from Ukraine, in addition to combat gulenists, which is now the Turkish authorities see everywhere, and could not be seen in several private schools. These questions Turkish diplomacy promotes on the negotiations with persistence and tenacity of a woodpecker.

And what I want and what to achieve in the relations with the Turks we? I wonder if that political dialogue with Ukraine needs to Turks is nothing more than a cover operation for Turkey’s rapprochement with Russia?