Autumn in Ukraine traditionally grows the dollar. The currency has to be spent on energy imports and repayment of foreign loans as a result of the hryvnia “weakens”. In summer the dollar fluctuated in the range of 25.5-26 hryvnia and the fall can overstep the mark in 27 hryvnia, experts predict. At the same time, the Euro in Ukraine will depend on the ratio of the European currency to American. The website “Today” has found out, what will happen to the hryvnia exchange rate in the first month of autumn.
What will happen to the dollar and the Euro
The Euro in Ukraine is currently on sale for 30,14 hryvnia and the dollar – hryvnia 25,55. And if the dollar relative to the hryvnia in summer has gradually improved, the Euro showed the opposite trend. So, at the end of may, the dollar could be bought for 26.3 hryvnia (over the summer fell by 70 cents), and EUR 29,4 hryvnia (rose by 70 cents).
On the Euro exchange rate in Ukraine affects primarily the relationship between the dollar and the Euro. The weaker U.S. currency against the Euro, the Euro more expensive for Ukrainians. As a senior analyst at “Alpari” Vadim Iosub, this year the dollar/Euro rose from 1.03 to 1.19 – dollar “lost” in the price almost 15%. This trend is due to several factors. First, the European economy is growing faster than experts predicted, and the us – on the contrary. Second, the dollar exchange rate affect the political situation in the United States. More information can be read here.
In the fall of the dollar/Euro will change their places. The Euro in Ukraine will be cheaper, and the dollar – to go up. Analysts of “Alpari” predict the fall of the strengthening of the hryvnia against the Euro to 28.5-29 hryvnia. “The future behavior of the Euro in Ukraine will continue to fully depend on fluctuations in European currencies to the dollar. A very probable correction of the Euro after such a long period of growth, and this means that the Euro can fall in price in the fall to 28.5-29 UAH”, – says Vadim Iosub.
In order to perform a set in the state budget indicators for the USD since September gradually up to the level of 28.5 hryvnia to the end of the year, said Executive Director of the International Fund blazer Oleg Ustenko
“Course laid in the state budget, is 27.2 hryvnia to the dollar on average for the year. It is important to sustain this course, given that Ukraine is export-dependent country. If given the opportunity to strengthen the hryvnia, the state budget is likely to receive funds. The pace of development of the economy may be lower than stated. Behave export-dependent country. When the exchange rate strengthens, the exporters receive less revenue,” – says the economist.
“If given the opportunity to strengthen the hryvnia, the state budget is likely to receive funds. The pace of development of the economy may be lower than stated. Behave export-dependent country. When the exchange rate strengthens, the exporters receive less revenue,” – says the economist.
According to Oleg Ustenko, the devaluation of the hryvnia against the dollar is “inevitable”. However, really difficult for the national currency times will come next year. For 2018 and 2019, Ukraine should regain about $ 10 billion of loans. For comparison, the payments this year amount to only $ 2.6 billion. In order to keep the hryvnia next year to replenish the gold and foreign currency reserves needed now, says Oleg Ustenko.
“If the NBU is to give the hryvnia to strengthen, more aggressively increased their gold reserves, it would, I think, correct,” – said the Executive Director of the Bleyzer Foundation.
At the same time, the head of analytical Department of Concorde Capital Oleksandr Parashchiy believes that the dollar in Ukraine will go up gradually and by the end of the year will reach the mark of 27 hryvnia. The reasons for a sharp devaluation in September the expert does not see: the situation in commodity markets is favorable for Ukraine, the price of steel, ore and grain high.
“We see that the devaluation pressure will fall. But it depends on many factors, including the political process. Autumn begins a new political season, there can be surprises. If the Parliament in the first half of September will be able to adopt the pension reform, in October or November, the IMF will give another loan tranche. Then we will be able to keep the rate about 27 hryvnia to the end of the year”, – says the analyst.
“In the autumn begins a new political season, there can be surprises. If the Parliament in the first half of September will be able to adopt the pension reform, in October or November, the IMF will give another loan tranche. Then we will be able to keep the rate about 27 hryvnia to the end of the year”, – says the analyst.
With such a forecast, not all analysts agree. So, in Alpari are sure of the reasons for sharp fluctuations of the national currency there, and in September, the dollar will sell at a 26.1 per.
“With the transition to a floating exchange rate, the jumps of the hryvnia will not get any. With regard to the dynamics of the exchange rate, the hryvnia strengthened against the dollar since mid-January this year. In some weeks the dollar becomes more expensive, but the overall trend is for a strengthening of the hryvnia is continuing and no signs of reversal yet,” – says a senior analyst “Alpari” Vadim Iosub.
What affects the dollar
A quarter of the consumer basket of Ukrainians – import, reminiscent of Oleg Ustenko. After the rise in the us dollar there are prerequisites for the growth of gasoline prices (every dollar leads to an increase in the cost of light oil at 80 cents). While fuel prices are incorporated in the cost of most goods. The rise in the us dollar leads to a proportional increase in the cost of imported goods. So, if the dollar increased by 10%, and imports will also rise 10%, says ex-economy Minister Viktor Suslov.
Directly to the U.S. currency tied to the price of apartments and cars in Ukraine. In addition, the rate of the American currency depend on gas prices. In the current formula, a natural gas laid import price of gas, translated into hryvnia at the NBU. The rate of growth leads to the fact that imported gas for Ukraine is more expensive.
Earlier, the website “Today” I wrote about how and why strengthened the hryvnia in 2017. since the beginning of the year, the dollar in Ukraine has decreased from 27 to 26.2 USD. The main reason for the strengthening of the Ukrainian currency – high earnings from agricultural products. In addition, agricultural companies plant in the country revenues in order to carry out the sowing.