Ukraine harvests: what will happen to the price of bread

In Ukraine in the midst of the battle for the harvest already gathered early cereals and only a few weeks will begin collecting and late grain. “Today” has estimated the Ukrainian harvest this year, and also learned how to assess his experts and how can change the price of bread.

WHAT IS COLLECTED. According to the latest data from the agriculture Ministry, has already collected about 35 million tons of early grain and leguminous crops. This is 95% of the total area of crops. In particular, in the barns of the country is already 25.3 mln tonnes of wheat, 8.3 million tonnes of barley, 391 thousand tons of rye, 279 thousand tons of oats, 1.1 million tons of peas and 2.1 million tons of rapeseed.

The highest yield of early grain and leguminous crops in the agriculture Ministry recorded in Khmelnytskyi, Ivano-Frankivsk and Ternopil regions. But most of the grain gathered the farmers of the Odessa (3.8 tons), Zaporizhya and Kharkiv (2.8 tons) regions.

THE GRAIN IS ENOUGH. Expert farmers say that to a record last year to make it fail (in 2016 Ukraine gathered the biggest grain harvest in the period of its independence — 66 million tonnes), but with final conclusions is not in a hurry. “While the cleaning operation is completed, evaluate the success of a harvest even earlier. But it is clear that it will be less than last year due to minor Njegoseva last season and bad weather in the spring. According to preliminary data, it will be about 62 million tons,” — told us informkompanii analyst Dmytro Lutsyk.

However, experts argue that grain has already collected more than enough, but because of the shortage of grains and flour in winter will not. “For domestic consumption of grain will suffice. For example, to provide the whole country with bread, you need only 3.5 million tons of grain, and we have them for 25 million,” calms the head of analytical service Rodion rybczynski.

However, the expert notes that the quality of the crop to assess is early — harvested grain still ripens after harvesting about two months. But according to preliminary estimates Dmitry Lucica, as the half of wheat is food, and the remaining 50% will go to feed.

A collection of later crops will begin in late August. According to preliminary forecasts of experts, the harvest of corn, sunflower and soybeans will be slightly smaller than last year, but this year I’ll freak the crap. So, according to Dmitry Lucica, this year Ukraine expects a corn crop to 27.3 million tons (in 2016, 28 million), sunflower — at 13.1 million tons (13.6 million), soybean and 4.1 million tons (4.3 million), and buckwheat — 190 tons (172 million).

PRICES GROW. Despite the relatively high yields this year, prices of cereals and bread can rise. “During harvest, grain prices usually fall, but this year this did not happen — they even rose slightly. The fall of prices will be even higher and will continue to grow until the end of the year,” — said Dmytro Lutsyk. So, because of rising grain prices in neighbouring countries, our second ton of wheat varieties has increased by UAH 350 and is now worth UAH 4700, and third-class — 300 UAH — UAH 4500 per ton.

Due to the cost of grain will rise and the price of flour. Since more than half of the cost of bread is the price of flour, the bread will also rise, experts say. “The price of bread until the end of the year will increase by 10%. If now pounds of social bread is approximately 12 hryvnia, soon the cost may rise to 13.2” — told us the Director of the Association of retail suppliers Oleksiy Doroshenko. He also noted that prices continued to influence the dollar: “the value of the products we regulate the course, so that if the hryvnia will fall, prices will quickly react to growth”.

HOW MANY WILL SELL. Last year, our country managed to sell most of the harvest — about 42 million tons out of 66 million In the current year, according to Dmitry Lucica, Ukraine will be able to sell about 39 million tons of grain, 3 million tons less than last year.

In addition, the head of the Ukrainian grain Association Mykola Gorbachov said that in this month grain exports to other countries declined slightly and this is due, primarily, to the fact that the cleaning this year started 10-12 days later than usual. Nevertheless, Gorbachev asserts that, prior to January 2018 delivery to foreign countries to increase again.

We will remind, at the moment, most country sells grain to the EU countries — there traditionally goes about 30% of total exports. Also, Ukrainian grain buying countries in the Middle East and North Africa and more recently Asia. In addition, it has recently been awarded the first contract to supply 96 tons of flour to South America.