So confidently believe the magazine the Economist, where a new and very interesting article under the mysterious name Roadkiller, analysts see the completion of the history of cars running on petrol.
“The human mind has not invented a mechanical process, which would have replaced the horse as a means of propelling the transport,” — said the French newspaper “Le Petit Journal” in December 1893. To find solutions to the newspaper organized the race Paris-Rouen for horseless carriages, which took place in July of next year. Among 102 samples were declared carriages running on steam, gasoline, electricity, compressed air and hydraulics. A total of 21 samples were allowed to participate in the 126-kilometer race, which attracted huge number of spectators. The undisputed winner was the internal combustion engine. In the next hundred years he was destined to become an engine of production and to change the world.
The Economist experts believe that all suggests that there is a coming time of the electric motor. First and foremost, thanks to the rapid development of technology of batteries. Today electric cars for lithium ion batteries demonstrate impressive results. For example, the Chevy Bolt — passing 383 km. And not so long ago, Tesla has overcome on a single charge, more than one thousand kilometers. The experts give the forecast data of the Bank UBS. According to analysts of the Bank, by 2025 electric vehicles will take up to 14% of the world market of cars — now they occupy only one percent. The authors of the article in the Economist note: more recently, a number of experts had adopted a more conservative estimate of prospects of electric vehicles. But lately they’re in a hurry to give much more optimistic forecasts of the transition to electric vehicles on a global scale. This is caused by a number of factors, including the fact that today the cost of the batteries is significantly reduced, and their quality has seriously improved since 2010, the cost of a kilowatt-hour fell from 1 000 to $ 130-200. Plays an important role and the tightening of national legislation that explicitly encourages the development of this new industry. Recently the UK has officially announced that by 2050, reduce to zero emissions for road transport, and thus joined the group of countries that adopted a decision on full transition to electric engines.
However, the Economist experts believe that the transition to elektrodvigateli go grazdo faster than demonstrate even the most optimistic predictions, and write in your article: the first “death rattle” of the internal combustion engine has already distributed around the world…
Of course, as noticed by British experts, the process of “electrification” brought confusion into the automotive manufacturing sector. After all, the best brands of cars is a complex engineering, especially in Germany. The electric car is far simpler traditional machines and have smaller components — they are more like computers on wheels. This means that their Assembly requires fewer workers and fewer systems manufactured by specialised suppliers. Workers of the factories, where not produced electric cars, concerned about the possible loss of their jobs. When the machine is “nothing to break”, the market service and spare parts drastically reduced. While today’s car manufacturers face the problem of economically unprofitable “legacy” in the form of outdated plants and a bloated staff, new players will be free from this burden. Experts believe that, most likely, the premium brands may survive due to its exclusivity. But you need to understand now that the mass producers will have to compete solely on the price of the product.
Experts note another trend. Thanks to electric motors, and practice movement with fellow travelers and technology of unmanned vehicles transportation will be a service when the machine is invoked on demand from the fleet. According to some ambitious estimates, this can lead to a reduction in the automotive industry in the amount of up to 90%. The presence of a large public Park unmanned vehicles will help to replace the city Park, which occupy up to 24% in some areas, new housing and will also allow those who work in the cities come from afar, visitas in the car. This suburbanization describes the opposite Economist.
Even without going to safe unmanned machines electric motor opens the widest prospects from the point of view of environmental protection and human health. Charging the battery supplied from the Central power plants more energy-efficient than combustion of fuel to individual engines. According to the American Council on the protection of natural resources (National Resources Defence Council), modern electric cars pollute the air is 54% less than cars running on gasoline. Given the fact that the efficiency of electric vehicles is increasing, and electricity production is becoming greener, this figure will continue to grow. The city’s air will be cleaner. According to the world health organization, air pollution is the single most important environmental risk factor for human health: in the world annually from related diseases kill 3.7 million people. According to one study, atmospheric emissions of 53 cars kill thousands of Americans a year, while road accidents killed 34 thousand people.
Experts Economist considering the oil factor. They write that about two thirds of the total petroleum products consumed in the USA falls on road transport, with a significant proportion of the by-product from the processing of the rest of the raw material is also used for the production of gasoline and diesel fuel. Among experts there is no consensus on when the peak will happen in the consumption of oil; according to Royal Dutch Shell, he can be reached in just ten years. The very prospect of this will affect prices long before the occurrence of such a peak. Nobody wants to stay with the useless oil reserves, and therefore, there is a lack of fresh investment; this is especially true of new fields with higher costs, such as in the Arctic. At the same time, such exporting countries as Saudi Arabia, have large accessible deposits of hydrocarbons, will seek to extract as much as possible until it is too late; the middle East will have a value, but not as important as before. Natural gas, which will serve as raw material for the production of all required machines of electricity, will retain their markets, however, countries that mainly rely on income from the sale of hydrocarbons, it will be difficult to fill the national Treasury in a situation of fluctuating oil prices. Given the reduction in the rate of oil production to adapt to the new realities will not be easy.
The authors believe that on the threshold of the unfolding struggle over access to lithium. Since 2011, the price of lithium carbonate increased from four thousand dollars per ton, up more than 14 thousand dollars. There is a rapid increase in demand for cobalt and rare earths for electric motors. Lithium is not only used in the production of batteries: utility companies need a huge battery to store electricity during periods of low consumption and ensure its supply during peak hours. Will Chile, whose subsoil is rich in lithium, the new Saudi Arabia? Probably not, because Li is not fuel cars; old lithium ion batteries can be reused in the power grid complexes and then processed.
However, British experts say that the internal combustion engine more than one decade will dominate in such sectors of the transport industry, shipping and air transport. However, in their firm belief that on land the electric motors will soon provide cheaper and more environmentally friendly freedom and convenience. And besides, according to specialists ‘ forecasts, thanks to electric cars in developed countries will rise again the consumption of electricity. It is also important that as experts consider, the increase in the introduction of electric motors likely to be the impetus, as they dubbed, “the midwife”, for the adoption of new rules and standards in this sector at the state level. This in particular could affect the work of public charging stations and battery recycling and engines produced, including on the basis of rare-earth metals, in terms of urban complexes regeneration elements (“urban mines”).
Apparently, the authors conclude the article, in the XXI century unmanned electric cars will make the world a better fundamental and unexpected ways, as well as did cars with internal combustion engine in the twentieth century. However, it will be a road with potholes. So fasten your seat belts!