Russia will lose in Syria, just as it overtook the Soviet Union in South Yemen. In Moscow do not want to realize that learning from mistakes is a virtue.
There is something that unites the positions of Russia on the one hand, and the position of the Syrian regime on the other. The common denominator for them is the escape from reality and the desire to create a private world for each of them.
The Syrian regime doesn’t want to believe that the Syrian people are against him and he ended up in the dustbin of history a few years ago. He does not want to believe that Syria was divided into several zones of influence.
In turn, Russia denies the allegation that she is unable to breathe life into the state institutions that she helped to restore in Syria, and she is not capable for it for one simple reason. It lies in the fact that these institutions associated with the illegitimate regime of Syrian society is divided on the basis of ethno-religious affiliation and are based on a policy of extortion and corruption. When this policy contributed to the attainment of legitimacy and the creation of institutions of a modern state that enjoys good relations with neighbouring countries?
Russia hopes for the impossible, trying to create something positive from what is left of state institutions in Syria. Rate the impossible can only lead to the fact that Syria will be divided into zones of influence at nominal saving power of Bashar al-Assad in Damascus. At this time Moscow will be in the role of a prisoner and will wait for a convenient moment when the head of the Syrian leader can be exchanged for anything substantial, because Bashar Assad is just a gimmick and nothing more.
All Russia can do is to reach agreements such as those signed between it, the United States and Jordan concerning the situation in southern Syria. These agreements could not have been achieved without the consent of Israel, which is more than all the others interested in establishing calm in a sensitive region, given that the Golan is an extension of his territory. There is a profound mutual understanding between Russia and Israel, at the same time, you need to take into account the fact that the Israel of the many concerns will not tolerate direct or indirect Iranian presence in the territory that stretches from the Golan heights to Damascus. We can’t ignore the fact that the distance between the line of cease-fire in 1967 and the Syrian capital, is 37 km, while the agreement between Russia, the United States and Jordanian affects the space length of 40 kilometers.
Anyway, Saudi Arabia has put an end to the future of Bashar al-Assad. What would Russia or tried to do to save the Syrian regime, his fate is sealed. Assad has no place in Syria, no matter what will be the nature of the political entity called the Syrian Arab Republic.
Some official Russian media recently attributed to the foreign Minister of Saudi Arabia Adel al-Jubeir words that the Kingdom expresses its consent to the retention of power by the Bashar al-Assad. In response, the Saudi Ministry immediately issued a statement, stressing the firm position of Riyadh on the Syrian leader, and noting that “whatever the future of Syria, Bashar al-Assad in it.” It is obvious that these words in the explanation do not need.
Meanwhile Russia does all kinds of maneuvers to buy time. However, delaying the decision may lead to further fragmentation of Syria, while becoming more obvious by the fact that there is a need for a paradigm shift of thinking in order to find a political solution that would meet the interests of all parties. In the end, the question remains whether it is possible to reconcile different interests, or rather zones of influence existing at the present time. Among them, Russian, American, Iranian, Turkish and Israeli zones of influence, while the interests of Jordan are limited to protecting itself from the terrorist organization “Islamic state” (banned in Russia — approx. ed.) and the Iranian “revolutionary guard” approaching its borders.
Moscow uses all possible maneuvers, and even attracted to Egypt to participate in the Syrian settlement, not wanting to acknowledge the fact that Syria has no future under the current regime. Russia and Iran are trying to preserve the regime, but you need to understand that what Iran is doing is not that other, as attempt to turn Syria into its zone of influence and strengthen the ligament Beirut-Tehran via Baghdad and Damascus. It is unclear in this situation what will Russia do. It’s time for her to realize that she’s not able to play the role of a superpower in the middle East or beyond, even doing everything necessary in order to reassure Israel and to provide him with the necessary guarantees.
Perhaps the most dangerous in the actions of Russia that they contribute to the continuing unstable situation in the middle East and the Persian Gulf. Russia allows Iran to work in search of alternatives in the case that the Iranians will be forced out of southern Syria. What we are seeing today, is the desire of Tehran to find alternative regions where they can secure their presence, special attention is paid to Lebanon and Syria, to associate the region under Iranian control in Syria, with those that are controlled by Hezbollah in Lebanon. The deal between Hezbollah and “An-Nusra” (banned in Russia — approx. ed.) in Jared Ursal is only part of the Iranian game, the outcome of which will be determined from the Iraqi-Syrian border. It is time for Russia to behave logically in Syria. She needs to remember that the size of its economy is less economy of a country such as South Korea and less than the size of the economy of Italy, France or Germany, whose economy is three times larger than the Russian economy.
Russia is suffering from many problems, can not act as a superpower in the long term. There is only one service that Russia can provide the Syrians in that case, if she really wants to help. Instead of having to put on a deal with the United States, a country whose policy is in the formative stage, and pull of time that only serves the interests of the Iranian expansionist project and detrimental to Lebanon, why not try to resort to logic?
#Cartoon: sells Assad #Syria to #Iran, #Russia pic.twitter.com/r2dRhJ9zsf
— The Baghdad Post (@TheBaghdadPostE) 25 Jan 2017
Logically, any attempt to restore Syrian state institutions will not be successful, while Bashar al-Assad is still in Damascus. First, Syria needs new policies that will take into account the characteristics of the Syrian state, the mentality of its people, as well as many of the events lately. The United States established a military presence in those areas in which are concentrated the wealth of the country (agriculture, gas, water), intensified the role of the Kurds, and Turkey also made a statement that she controls two thousand square kilometers of Syrian territory.
Russian policy in Syria is unsustainable. This is due to the fact that Moscow has no suggestions on how to resolve the situation without taking into account the claims of Israel and Iran. In addition, the Russian leadership seeks to deal with the United States over Ukraine and Crimea.
As soon as the first signs appear of this transaction, the situation in Syria is becoming more complex. There is no doubt only the fact that Bashar Assad has no place in Syria any solution, no matter how weak the Syrian opposition, and no matter how it is fragmented. Strong commitment to the man who is responsible for the deaths of more than half a million Syrians, reminiscent of the days when the Soviet authorities were as confident in the possibility of success of the Communist party in governing the country, with tribal and clan in nature, called the people’s Democratic Republic of Yemen.
Russia’s plans in Syria will suffer the same defeat that awaited the Soviet regime in South Yemen and other regions in the past. In Moscow there are those who do not want to realize that to learn from mistakes — for good!