Summer in Ukraine is traditionally stabiliziruemost the national currency. The seasonal factor in strengthening the hryvnia caused due to planting season (farmers imported foreign currency into the country) and the traditionally high export proceeds. This year there is an additional factor for revaluation of the hryvnia against the U.S. currency. Political destabilization in the USA, the scandals of President Donald trump led to the weakening of the dollar in foreign exchange markets. The rate of the American currency against the hryvnia steadily creeping down, at the same time the Euro this year have increased in price almost 70 cents. The website “Today” has found out, what will happen to the hryvnia in the last month of summer.
What happens to the Euro
The main reason for the growth of the Euro in Ukraine – strengthening of European currencies relative to the us. As a senior analyst at “Alpari” Vadim Iosub, this year the dollar/Euro rose from 1.03 to 1.19 – dollar “lost” in the price almost 15%. This trend is due to several factors. First, the European economy is growing faster than experts predicted, and the us – on the contrary. Also the dollar exchange rate affects the political situation in the United States. For example, in April, after an interview with an American President edition of TWSJ, in which he stated that “our dollar is too strong,” the U.S. currency in Asian markets sank to their lowest in six months and mark has dropped from 111 to 108,7 Japanese yen.
Earlier this week, the Euro in Ukraine were sold at 30.67 hryvnia, the official exchange rate stabilized at around 30,14 hryvnia. “The future behavior of the Euro in Ukraine will continue to fully depend on fluctuations in European currencies to the dollar. A very probable correction of the Euro after such a long period of growth, and this means that the Euro can fall in price in the fall to 28.5-29 UAH”, – says Vadim Iosub.
By the way, the Euro in Ukraine has risen above 30.7 UAH in February-March 2017. Then was recorded a historic high, the European currency was sold at 31,41 of the hryvnia.
What will happen to the dollar
At the same time with the dollar in Ukraine things are different. Stable strengthening of the hryvnia against the U.S. currency began in early summer and continues until now. In Alpari predict that by the end of August the dollar will be sold at 25.7 USD. “We expect a continued moderate strengthening of the hryvnia in August, and this month she’ll be in the range of 25.5-26.0 hryvnia per dollar, the most likely course for the market clearing by the end of the month – 25.7 UAH”, – analysts of the company.
Stable exchange rate of hryvnia against the dollar, I’m sure Vadim Iosub, will last at least until the end of the summer. From September to the end of the year is expected to steady rise of the dollar to 26.5 – 27 UAH. The devaluation of the hryvnia forecast and also in the Cabinet. Thus, according to the budget resolution, the dollar will go up the next three years. Next year the cost will rise to 27 hryvnia, and in 2019 – to 30.5 USD.
Note that the value of the dollar depends on the inflation level in Ukraine. According to experts, the fourth part of the consumer basket of Ukrainians – imported goods, including energy resources. The dollar on the cost of gas and gasoline. The prices of gasoline lay in the cost of transportation of goods. In Ukraine the dollar was “tied” prices for equipment of apartments in the secondary market, cars, etc.
Earlier, the website “Today” I wrote, why Ukrainians after the stabilization of the dollar to actively sell currency.