Can’t stay away: how do the differences trump and Tillerson will affect Ukraine

“Rexit” – so the American media described the possible resignation of Secretary of state USA Rex Tillerson (similar to Brexit). And though the head of the state Department the rumors about the departure denies media continue to speak about the growing tensions between the White house and the state Department. First, his statements trump often baffled his foreign policy advisers and personally, Rex Tillerson. The situation around North Korea is proof of this. While the Secretary calmed, they say, Americans can sleep well, trump said that the threats from Pyongyang risk to face “the fury and the fire (probably from the USA – Ed.) what the world has never seen.” Second, the state Department still has not completed more than 130 vacancies, including the key that requires approval in the Senate. The white house is blocking the appointment, Trump and his associates do not like candidates Tillerson. This further drives the state Department in uncontrolled chaos, and the administration of trump’s points are not added. According to the American experts and analysts, the White house in foreign policy matters is becoming more closed. Not having a clear foreign policy strategy, it all comes down to the fact that important decisions are taken personally by trump and his family in a hurry.

Those who spoke of the unpredictability of trump, not wrong. From the first days of his presidency, it became clear that the White house is not boring. His predecessor, Barack Obama has not decided to provide Ukraine with lethal defensive weapons, and the Administration trump is seriously considering the possibility. That only is the rocket attack on the airbase forces of President Bashar al – Assad in early April, the US released the 59 cruise missiles “Tomahawk” at the airport shirt. And the output States of the Paris climate agreement and a deteriorating relationship with the leader of the European Union Germany?

Most analysts and experts condemn the decision of trump, especially in foreign policy. Many explicitly say that, despite the determination of the 45th President of the United States, neither he nor his team has no clear foreign policy strategy. Until recently, it is visible in the policies of the new Administration in Ukraine. Six months, the state Department could not determine the successor of Victoria Nuland – assistant Secretary of state for Europe and Eurasia. In the end, for the first time in the history of relations between Kiev and Washington in the state Department a special representative for Ukraine Kurt Volker. This is great news for Ukraine. But assistant Secretary of state for Europe and Eurasia is still vacant. Trump agreed with the candidate harsh criticism of Putin, President of the Center for European policy analysis (CEPA) Wassa Mitchell to this post.

But the Senate has not yet voted. As for many other key assistants to the Secretary of state, for example, on arms control, international security and political-military Affairs. To date, the state Department is not filled more than 130 positions. Earlier, in an interview with the “Today” Director of the Institute of world policy Alyona Hetmanczuk said that the White house is blocking a lot of appointments in the state Department, which were filed by Rex Tillerson.

This, according to the American press, even became one of the main causes of the scandal, which the Secretary of state about six weeks ago staged at the White house, accusing Administration officials of the trump. It got to the point that at the end of July by CNN, citing sources, reported that due to disagreements with trump Tillerson can retire. First, according to interlocutors of the channel, the head of the state Department called unprofessional public criticisms trump addressed to attorney General Jeff and Roman sessions (trump outraged that sessions refused decisions related to the investigation of Russia’s intervention in the elections – Ed.). Second, Tillerson is very unhappy that the hotel trump continues to block appointments in the state Department. Like, Tillerson urging to take the post of Secretary of state, trump promised him complete freedom of action. In fact, the former head of Exxon Mobil should carve out a place in the sun, competing with trump’s assistants.

According to experts, Tillerson is not included in entourage of trump, but rather closer to the traditional establishment Republican party than to the Cabinet. “Trump in recent weeks is increasingly separated from the main “Republicans” and his foreign policy statements and tweets that to the other members of the American government was a surprise – all this makes the position of Tillerson (in the status of Secretary of state – Ed.) almost impossible. We recently saw this with the example of North Korea and before that in Qatar. In addition, poor management Tillerson, the state Department criticized in Washington and he (Tillerson – Ed.) don’t like this work. Therefore it would not be a surprise if he decided to resign,” – said the “Today” researcher, German Marshall Fund of the United States Nicolas Boucher.

About the bad management qualities Rex Tillerson writes The New York Times. According to the newspaper, now even the official congratulations of the foreign States on the occasion of their national holidays are being validated by the office Tillerson, which did not exist. Although he Tillerson came to the state Department, hastened to declare that he intends to reform it and get rid of unnecessary red tape, to reduce the budget of the Ministry by 31% and staff by 8%.

But perhaps the icing on the cake was the inconsistency of the statements trump and Tillerson on North Korea, which is not noticed just lazy. According to the New York Times, the answer is Donald trump North Korea has become a surprise not only for the assistants and advisers of the President, but are stumped by the Secretary of state.

The White house said that the United States will respond “fire and fury” if Pyongyang’s actions threaten America. Although Rex Tillerson a few hours earlier said that he sees that relations with North Korea in the last 24 hours something changed. According to the analyst of the Institute of world politics Nicholas Belenkova, trump his statements undermines the statements made by the Secretary of state and limits its room for maneuver. At the same time, according to Belenkova, Tillerson has not yet demonstrated itself as an effective negotiator, he has yet a diplomatic success, if you compare Tillerson with the feet of American diplomacy Kissinger, Baker, even with his predecessor Kerry.

According to the American press, in 2017, we can hardly expect the resignation of Rex Tillerson from the post of Secretary of state. Yes, and he said he worked in the state Department at least until the end of the year. Most likely, according to research fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States Nicholas Bush, it will happen in 2018, perhaps even at the beginning. But the name of the successor on Capitol hill sounds more and more. In place Tillerson designate US Ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley.

As for the Ukrainian issue here, according to the analyst of the Institute of world politics Nicholas Belezika, Tillerson and trump disagreements have that one, the other, for example, condemned the sanctions against Russia. But, according to experts, after the signing of the trump of the bill, which expanded sanctions against Russia, the room for maneuver on the Russian-Ukrainian direction is significantly decreased. Now the American President cannot unilaterally repeal or weaken the anti-Russian sanctions would require the consent of Congress. “It was a clear statement Tillerson last week that they are in fact limited in activities. To be honest, on the Ukrainian question is unclear, what can we talk now? I mean, you can talk, but Walker when you go to Moscow, can tell Surkov (or Tillerson Lavrov) only one thing: to cancel the sanctions and normalization of relations you withdraw your troops,” – said the “Today” Nicholas Beleskov.