Ukraine has a new window of opportunity

Now the main vector of American policy will be to isolate Russia, and attempt to limit its ties with Western countries under the pretext of countering Russia’s hybrid aggression. Of course, it will not come to a full trade embargo, but Washington is very interested in closing Russia’s access to advanced technologies, which Moscow is not independently able to develop and commercialize.

In America also understand that the further development of the national energy involves the expansion of the European market of shale oil and gas, and Russian companies here competitors, from which it would be good to get rid of. In addition, a painful moment for the Kremlin will be Washington’s response to Russian antics in cyberspace, that care today American politicians much more than the Russian aggression against Ukraine in this direction, I think, will be “concentrated the best forces,” and Moscow will face a lot of troubles.

Regarding Ukraine I Express limited optimism. Now Kiev may be the beneficiary of not only its own achievements, how much of a sharp deterioration in US relations to the Russian Federation. In this context, it is possible to expect activization of cooperation in the military sphere until the lifting of restrictions on the supply of lethal and offensive weapons; participation of American diplomacy in the process of peaceful settlement, which could replace the discredited Minsk format; pressure on European allies for the sake that they can provide more substantial assistance to the Ukrainian authorities.

However, I am convinced that Ukraine itself will not be for USA and the West in General more important partner than Russia, and therefore for the next few years Kiev will remain a kind of “bargaining chip” in the games between Washington and Moscow. For Ukraine, in my opinion, much more important than building relationships with Europe than with the United States: in Europe are the keys to investment to Ukraine, to the next stages of integration into Euro-Atlantic structures to a significant boost in economic development.

But Europe — and it is perfectly visible on the example of her reaction to new sanctions against Moscow — does not appreciate and will not appreciate the Ukrainian victims and Ukraine’s status as a “line of defence” of the West against the “Russian Horde”. In order to interest the Europeans that Ukraine should be economically successful and have to offer Europeans such ways of cooperation that will they simply best.

On the values in the dialogue with the EU is far not to go; need quite pragmatic suggestions. So a temporary Alliance with the US anti-Russian soil now possible and profitable to Kiev, but it is not necessary to amuse itself illusions that it will be very stable and long-term. Discord between Washington and Moscow — a good time for Ukraine to move closer to the West, but a long-term strategy is still needed.