New US sanctions against Russia complicate the relationship between the two countries. However, they will not keep President Vladimir Putin from the realization of its strategy, despite the warnings of his adviser Alexei Kudrin that it can be lead to serious consequences, which will lie heavily on Russia for decades, limiting the country’s economic growth and impeding its emergence as a leading economic power. The proof of this is the fact that the previous sanctions imposed by the West against Moscow after its intervention in the crisis in Ukraine and the “return” of Crimea, contributed to the softening of the Russian position, which only increased the fears of the Baltic States, Poland and other former members of the “Eastern bloc”. At the same time, these sanctions become the impetus for even greater intervention of Russia in other regions, particularly in the middle East.
Despite the fact that such policies aimed at restoring Russia’s position to the level of the Soviet Union, the situation is still far from being able to lead to a new cold war. If we talk about the balance of power between the two major powers, the advantage in military and economic terms belonged to the United States that does not allow opponents easy to defeat. In addition, there are rising powers. First, it is China that will no longer stand on the “side” of the conflict between the USA and Russia. Secondly, it is Europe that is looking for a way to independent policy away from a subordinate role within the Atlantic bloc in response to the protectionist policies of President Donald trump, who withdrew from the Paris agreement, trying to put pressure on Europe and does not take into account its interests. An example of this from recent sanctions, which have caused damage to the European economy and local companies. Note that European countries do not want to clash with its Eastern neighbor, on the contrary, they strive for cooperation and understanding with him on many issues in politics and security against the background of what is happening today in the middle East. Third, there are major regional powers such as India and Brazil.
The European trend for cooperation with Russia, strengthens the status of both parties. Moscow also does not want to boycott their neighbors to the West, including Washington, despite the uncertainty of the policy of the us administration, she is interested in continuing cooperation in order to protect their interests abroad. So, Minister of foreign Affairs of Russia Sergey Lavrov expressed a desire to communicate with his American colleague Rex Tillerson, to explain to the Russian requirement to reduce the number of staff of the US diplomatic mission in their country. He went further, and expressed readiness to normalize bilateral relations and cooperation on key international issues.
There is no doubt that Russia is interested in continuing bilateral cooperation in Syria, especially because this facilitates the implementation of Russia’s strategy in the country, allows it to strengthen its presence on the Mediterranean sea. Russia seeks to develop its relations with Cairo and all the capitals of the countries of the Persian Gulf who are also interested in expanding the Russian presence, as this would mean a reduction of Iranian influence in the region.
In addition, Moscow is aiming to play a greater role in the Libyan crisis, by establishing a strong relationship with the Khalifa the Haftarot, which is opposed to the Government of national consent headed by Faiz by Sarraj, who receives us and European support. You should pay attention to the fact that the commander of the national army, and political actors in Eastern Libya are a clear support from the Gulf States and Egypt. These countries do not oppose the relations between the Haftarot and Moscow, as they contribute to the strengthening of the position of the Libyan Marshal, his ability to resist political forces in the West of the country that receive support from Turkey and Qatar. All this hinders the settlement of the Libyan crisis.
As for Yemen, it is also one of the directions of Russian expansion. Moscow wants to return to the “democratic” Yemen Soviet times. She has a close relationship with the rebels, but at the same time, not abandoning relationships with legitimate authorities, as evidenced by the approval of Russia the Ambassador to Moscow, appointed by the President Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi. Such a wide range of relations that do not exclude the possibility of reaching an understanding with the government of Benjamin Netanyahu and the Palestinian authority, allows Russia to continue to expand its presence in the region.
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At this time in Iraq and Syria trump blind eye to the role of popular mobilization in the war on terror, the role of Hezbollah in the Levant and the battle for the Arsaliyev and Kalamun, which strengthens Iran’s position. Russia, in turn, it becomes easier to continue the work on creation of zones of de-escalation that ultimately reflect her vision for the future of Syria. It is enough that its troops guarantee a truce in these areas. With regard to the Pentagon plan to increase the presence of its troops in Syria and even in Iraq, they were adopted later. This step will not be able to limit Tehran’s influence in Syria, which is controlled by the regime, including Damascus, HOMS, Hama and Aleppo. Last week during the visit of Nouri al-Maliki to Moscow AGENTSTVO “Sputnik” reported that, according to the Iraqi President, Iraq wants political and military presence of Russia on its territory to balance American influence in the country. It became known that the Islamic Republic is concerned about the broad American support received by Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, and which may contribute to his reelection for a second term. Iran fears intensify with the approaching General elections, primarily in connection with the release of Omar al-Hakim of the “Supreme Islamic Council” and the creation of the National coalition, which aims to expand the relations with the neighboring countries, not limiting them to one Tehran.
At the same time, the satisfaction of a request of the leader of the coalition of “State law” has caused anger in Washington. Russia understands that the priority of the administration trump is to limit Iranian influence in the region, especially in Iraq. The means to achieve this goal are the new sanctions for the Commission of financial and banking operations, which will hit Hizbollah. There is no doubt that the tightening of sanctions by the U.S. Congress and trump against Iran in connection with its missile tests allows the Kremlin to use the wrath of the United States and their need for support at the international level, as was the case in previous years. Agreement on the Iranian nuclear program has allowed Moscow to develop relations with the White house on other issues.
© Ministry of defence Rfsuny de-escalation in Syria
There is no doubt that agreement on the area of the “East ghouta” in Damascus, just as it happened on the southern front, strengthen the role of Russia and its allies in the Levant. In particular, the military campaign, whose goal is to end the “Hayat Tahrir al-sham” (formerly “al-Nusra”, banned in Russia — approx. ed.) and LIH (banned in Russia — approx. ed.) in Qalamoun and the Lebanese border, the Syrian areas also serve their interests, and especially Iran. There are only HOMS and its suburbs, as well as the most complex area of Idlib province, which has “An-Nusra”. This region has become a test of the ability of Turkey to provide him security. Nothing prevents Russia to help Turkey to enter Afrin and prevent the accession of this region to the Kurdish regions of Kobani and al-Jazeera. Moscow may give Ankara what it wants, while Washington was not able to mitigate the concerns of Turkey regarding the establishment of the Kurdish autonomy with broad powers.
As for the four zones of de-escalation, they determined the image of the future Syria. This federalism, on the establishment of which the Kremlin is open from the beginning of Russian military intervention in Syria. Russia has a guarantee that the United States will not violate the plans, especially after they failed to cut the supply lines of Iran, going from Tehran to Beirut. Even the us-trained group, on which the States rely in the fight against ISIS in Tape and confrontation with the forces of the “Revolutionary guard”, began to rebel against the United States, refusing to obey their orders, demanding to stop fighting with the Syrian regime and to limit the terrorist organization.
It is important that getting in the near future, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan Russian missiles s-400 will exacerbate Turkey’s relations with Europe and the United States. Turkey increasingly feels under siege. Strained relations with Germany and other European countries more and more out of the European continent. The crisis involving Qatar and brotherly he States in the Persian Gulf, and also Egypt threatens Turkey’s close economic and political doors to the region. All this has prompted the Turkish leadership to expand cooperation with Moscow due to the collapse of relations with the West in General.
You need to take into account the fact that European countries supporting the policy of the tramp was angry with his decision to impose new sanctions against Russia. In particular, Germany, whose companies are working on pipeline to transport Russian gas to Europe, believe that the steps taken against Moscow, increasing the tensions in relations between Berlin and Washington. Thus, the German Committee on Eastern European economic relations calls on Europe to take action in response to the decision of the Congress. His position is explained by the fact that Germany understands that America aims to increase its energy exports to European countries to create jobs in the domestic market and the approval of its foreign policy. It is known that the energy sector is one of the pillars the strength of its foreign policy towards the European Union. These weapons have been used repeatedly both in the recent and distant past. This fact is one of the reasons of Russian activity in Syria, whose territory of Iran and Qatar were ready to use for gas pipelines to Europe to compete with Russian gas. Even China was dismayed by sanctions against Russia, Iran and North Korea, which was approved by the U.S. Congress, and criticized them, calling it “unilateral”. In addition, the Chinese leadership has warned that it will strongly oppose any similar acts which may affect the economic interests of the country. The Chinese are afraid of rising protectionism from the United States promoted by President trump since his arrival in the White house, despite the fact that he has repeatedly expressed his admiration for the President of China XI Jinping! American tougher sanctions, while Russia only expands its zone of influence in the middle East, in Europe and even in North Korea!