Pens in Tallinn

It is quite possible that in hindsight held this week by the visit of Vice-President Mike Pence in Estonia, Georgia and Montenegro will be possible to speak, as the moment when U.S. policy on security in Europe after six months of uncertainty has acquired a traditional shape. And who knows, maybe also the moment when Vice-President of the United States began to act like a President.

The white house was plagued by controversy and investigation, the President of Donald trump sometimes he acts chaotically, but from the Vice-President of the Pens we received the hardest so far, the signal current U.S. administration that Washington will remain true to the principles of collective security of NATO and will not tolerate the Imperial aspirations of Russia. Namely, US foreign policy will again be such that we could count and rely before trump’s statements about the “old NATO” and of friendship with Putin’s Russia had cast doubt on this score.

“Today there is no greater threat than the Ghost of aggression on the part of your unpredictable neighbor to the East,” said Pence on Monday in Tallinn at the meeting with the presidents of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. “Russia continues to look for opportunities to change international boundaries by force, to undermine the democracy of sovereign States, and split the free Nations of Europe, pitting them against each other,” he said. In this context, “a strong and United NATO is needed now more than ever after the collapse of communism a quarter century ago.” Vice-President of the United States stated that “the United States reject any attempt of use of force, threats, intimidation, or undue influence directed against the Baltic States or against any of our allies,” and “adhere to the promise of the 5th paragraph of our collective defence Treaty that an attack on one ally is an attack on us all.”

The Vice President Penny this message was more persuasive than trump a month ago in Warsaw and Brussels, when his words about the 5th paragraph of the NATO Treaty sounded like a good, but require effort on the level of thinking wishes to consider them plausible.

However, I changed the background for the statements of senior officials of the United States.

Visit a Penny in being in constant shadow of the Russian threat, States have taken place during an important turning point in relations between the US and Russia, some call it the end of the “honeymoon”, the other — the actual beginning of the “cold war 2.0”. But now we can say that there is no longer any reason to hope for improved relations between the U.S. and Russia or concerns about any of the “big geopolitical deal” between Washington and Moscow at the expense of Russia’s neighbors. The illusion dispelled, the temptation disappear.

Last week, the U.S. lawmakers have passed the most rigid is still the law on sanctions against Russia. Besides, the law provides that the President can’t lift sanctions against Russia without the consent of Congress. And in Congress and in the Senate the bill was supported by such an overwhelming majority that the President could not sign.

And on Monday, Vladimir Putin ordered to reduce the US diplomatic mission in Russia for 755 employees. This can be considered a response to the new law on sanctions and the decision taken by President Barack Obama in December of last year about the expulsion of America 35 Russian diplomats, or rather, of spies. Then, Russia has not responded with a similar expulsion of American diplomats. Now Putin hopes for gifts from the trump, apparently, has disappeared.

Serious aggravation of relations between America and Russia, of course, influenced the content and tone said Pence. But the timing of his visit, is probably associated with the scheduled mid-September the maneuvers of Russia and Belarus “West-2017” at the borders of the Baltic States.

According to military analysts, the scenario of these maneuvers — the war with NATO. The exercises can take up to 100 thousand soldiers of the Russian army, including the elite airborne units and new or upgraded 1st Panzer army, that is by far the offensive unit. In the opinion of NATO exercises designed to test the plans of Russia in the event of full-scale conflict with the Alliance. The NATO commanders warn that though we are in the eve of the war, increased military activity of Russia is fraught with unpredictable consequences.

Prime Minister of Estonia jüri Ratas said that Pensions were discussed upcoming exercises “West-217”, and also possibility of accommodation in Estonia American mobile systems of air defence Patriot. Information about what the US might plan to place in the Baltic States Patriot missiles for the first time seriously was made in may, when the Minister of defence of the USA James Mattis visited Lithuania. Insufficient capacity of air defense, make the Baltic States vulnerable to potential Russian aggression. The placement of Patriot missiles in the Baltics will significantly change the balance of power. From a political point of view, these plans are a signal to US that the words of the Vice-President on readiness to defend the Baltic States is not rhetoric.

Countries that have experienced Russian aggression, it is best to know how dangerous the thinking of the wishes in relations with the imperialists in the Kremlin. Penny said and done during this visit allows us to conclude that the U.S. relationship with Russia after six months of the illusions of the uncertainty of the return time of realism.