In Europe create a second League, Ukraine needs to be very careful

The Ukrainian government is walking on very thin ice. On the one hand, she managed to interest the President of the United States Donald trump. On the other hand, it is necessary to perform its obligations, in which you need to take unpopular measures. Simultaneously with the attempts to resolve the situation between Ukraine and Russia, the States are forced to look for the solution of two large-scale crises, in which Russia supports the enemies of the United States. About how to resolve existing crises and the prospects of new agreements between the major world players in the second part of an interview with “Apostrophe” said the expert of the Institute of social and economic research Julia Kurnyshova.

— Most of the major geopolitical events in varying degrees associated with the figure of the President of the United States Donald trump. However, full participation in international politics, complicated its alleged involvement with Russia and investigate accordingly. How trump will get out of this situation?

— In fact, the investigation of possible intervention of Russia in election campaign trump in the US is the most bright and visible process that is happening in the internal American politics. From the revolutionary campaign promises Trump failed to realize. The most striking failure can be called the situation with the abolition of Obamacare (a massive healthcare reform in the United States, which was implemented under President Barack Obama — “Apostrophe”) when the Republicans failed to gather a majority to undo this reform.

It is clear that the investigation in respect of trump and the need to respond to them requires a considerable time. It will benefit as the foreign opponents of the trump, the opponents inside the country — the Democrats. His reaction to the investigation is interesting for its spontaneity and originality. He said that he would never have appointed Jeff and Roman sessions United States attorney General, if he knew what he would do himself or herself during the investigation (in may 2017 sessions said that would not be relevant to the investigation into Russia’s interference in the American electoral process and contacts between Russian representatives with people from the entourage of the presidential candidates of the United States — “the Apostrophe”). In respect of spectracolor on investigation of Affairs about the Russian ties of the American President Robert Mueller trump said that, in investigating his connections and business, Mueller crosses all red lines. Where else but in a business environment, look for all threads that will lead to a more complete picture.

Now the FBI goes in three directions. The first — the Russians purchase apartments in buildings that belong to the Trump. The second is the joint organization of the contest “Miss universe” in 2013 in the suburbs. The third — development project to create a “trump SOHO” in new York. In addition, a separate line is process associated with money laundering Paul Manafort, head of the election headquarters of the tramp and a man notorious in Ukraine (by Paul Manafort was a political consultant for the “Party of regions”; for their services according to various estimates received from 12 to 17 million dollars from the so-called “black accounting” regionals — “Apostrophe”).

In an attempt to respond to the investigation and the political situation trump last week took some shuffling in its communication team, the position left press Secretary of the White house Sean Spicer, the head of all the communication direction was Anthony’s Scaramucci. He will oversee the entire information and propaganda policy of the White house. The identity of Scaramucci quite interesting: ardent trambouze he has become recently, and before that, allow themselves to critical statements in his address. But on the other hand, speaking at last year’s economic forum, he stated that anti-Russian sanctions was probably not the best solution, they helped to rally the Russians, and America reached the opposite effect. Now his appointment coincided with the process of adoption of sanctions in Congress.

— Investigation cornered trump in a trap that he cannot act in support of Russia or against the anti-Russian sanctions, which are likely to be taken. What to expect from these sanctions?

— Sanctions do large-scale, providing a codification of sanctions was President Barack Obama. First, it concerns sanctions for the annexation of Crimea and the conflict in Eastern Ukraine. Secondly, it is those sanctions that Obama took the curtain of the presidency, they concerned the real estate of Russia and individual sanctions. They become law. In fact, if President trump wants to reverse or revise, it will not be able to do so without consultation with Congress and provide Congress an explanatory note.

These sanctions are of interest because they are proactive with regard to third countries. They impose default restrictions against third countries that are willing to invest serious resources in the Russian energy projects. Here is a very interesting position of the Europeans as they involved in the creation of the “Nord stream-2”. Russia is now interested in the establishment of the “Turkish stream and Power of Siberia”. These sanctions suggests that countries or companies that have invested a single amount of more than a million dollars, or six months has invested more than five million dollars fall into this sanctions list. Of course, anyone in Europe or China or even Turkey does not want to have problems with the United States because their companies have business in the United States and sell their shares on the new York stock exchange. Already the Federal Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel, and representatives of the European Commission managed to Express their discontent over the planned sanctions. They stated that the United States should consult with Europe to keep the unity of the policy in the first place sanctions policy. We see that this is another round of conflict between Washington and Merkel, and her statement that Europe should rely on their own strength, takes on new meaning in light of these sanctions.

Moreover, the US plans to seriously enter the European energy market. In front of a loud statement trump in Warsaw, already supplies liquefied natural gas to Europe. There is already agreement on the supply of coal-anthracite. Therefore, we can say that sanctions are a kind of attempt to clean up European and first Eastern and Central European energy market and to reduce Russian influence in the region.

— With regard to the supply of American coal to Ukraine, there is not only a matter of diversification?

— When trump won the election, had a lot of questions about what we might find interesting as a businessman. And, it appears that these agreements on the supply of anthracite is one of the distinct moves that can be interested as a businessman. Another thing is that, of course, will be a very big price for Ukraine. Unaffordable from an economic point of view, and even more than Rotterdam+. But this is a political move that will interest and ensure a permanent presence of American policy in the Ukrainian direction.

In this situation Ukraine can only win. The United States gives a clear signal that the development of foreign economic relations is based on two pillars: anti-corruption and deregulation of business. Without these two things it is impossible to develop any relationship. For Ukraine, it is also two priority reforms, so the more the United States put pressure on Ukraine, the more our political elite will be something to implement. This effect of the sandwich with one hand pressed external partners, and on the other hand crushes our civil society.

— Agree to our terms of US or will equivocate, to look for new ways to get around agreements?

— There is very thin ice on which he walks our President and the government. On the one hand, they are interested in their political survival and on the other hand, Ukraine is in a situation of very strong external dependence. And this dependence as a military and political conflict, and financial. Since the same delay the next tranche of IMF to create a very big havoc. In fact, the reform process looks very much on the requirements of the European Union, the IMF and the United States. I think that we are entering a period when our government will require even more unpopular decisions and even stronger reforms.

— Such reforms may cause discontent in the society and increase the mood of protest. What is the probability that Russia will use this situation to destabilize Ukraine?

— Of course, Russia is interested to constantly destabilize our situation. She will do her best to speculate this. I can’t say that some political forces are its supporters here. But destabilization is the element in which Putin himself feels like a fish in water. The RAID is what Putin actually rose. In fact, this model has been tested everywhere in the former Soviet Union — Transnistria, Karabakh, Georgia. This is the familiar model of the behavior of Russia within post-Soviet space.

— When can we expect the effect of anti-Russian sanctions of the United States?

— The acceptance of the sanctions is a big plus for Ukraine. Because sanctions policy in the Ukrainian direction becomes more predictable. The sanctions also complicate the development of Russian gas, which, if implemented, could potentially lead to that Ukraine will lose its transit potential. But while the need to wait until sanctions were voted and signed by the President. Although there is confidence that this will be so. Second, the sanctions themselves the timing of their entry into force are clearly spelled out. Third, as for Europeans and their potential participation in the construction of the pipeline, perhaps they’ll find some workaround, the exception. Completely ignore the position of the European allies can not. We in the coming months will see how events will develop.

But it will provoke some disagreement between the US and the EU?

The differences are already apparent. Moreover, his Warsaw speech trump spent the dividing line and said that he was going to invest significant resources and attention to the Central-Eastern region, make Poland one of the closest partners in contrast to Germany and France who are trying to conduct its own game. And meeting “the Big twenty” is shown. First, France and Germany are trying to promote climate agreement. Secondly, they are not going to abandon comprehensive trade agreements they are currently working on signing such a Treaty with Japan. But trump, when he came to power, said that he is a protectionist and will review all multilateral treaties. We see that Europe is trying to keep its distinct political line, and this can lead to considerable disagreement with Washington.

— The creation of the States of this second centre of influence in Eastern Europe will not lead to fragmentation and disorganization of the EU?

— Of course. In fact, the summit of “the Three seas”, which took place on the eve of the summit of “Big twenty” is one of the signs of the processes you are talking about. I would say that Ukraine have to be quite careful, because all ideas associated with intermarium and timeriomem (concept of partnership bloc States from the Baltic to Black and Adriatic seas — “Apostrophe”), give the creation of the second League in Europe. We are now in the Minsk process, which involved France and Germany, and our very obvious part in such projects, although we didn’t ask last time, can lead to negative relations with old Europe.

— Judging by the recent agreement on Syria between US President Donald trump and the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin, the middle East also planned some reformatting and the creation of new centers of influence?

— As for Syria, it is one of the positive outcomes of the meeting between Putin and trump at the G-20 summit in Hamburg was the creation of a zone of stability in Syria. It should be noted that Putin and trump it was important to make arrangements in its foreign policy asset. Trump in domestic politics is almost full of seams, but foreign policy continues to be the resource from the point of view of achieving some success. Remember that the US decision to launch a missile attack on the Syrian base Shirt had a significant political effect. Immediately increased the ratings of trump. Even talking about the fact that he could become a normal American President in the spirit of the Republicans.

Therefore, the change in position of the trump in Syria expresses the desire to achieve tangible success that he can show his electorate. I must say that the U.S. position on Syria has changed significantly. If they had stated that under no circumstances will not work with the regime of [Syrian President Bashar] Assad, now a priority for the United States remains the fight against ISIS (banned in Russia, ed.), and second, reducing the influence of Iran in the region.

Moreover, the head of US special operations forces General Tony Thomas said that the US stop supporting rebel groups acting against Assad. Now the United States is adjusting its position on Syria, and this means that they fully adjust their position in the region. In fact, proclaiming that they continue to view Iran as a regional adversary, trump raises serious question of preserving the unity of Iraq.

Now in Iraq the authorities are Shiite forces, and if trump makes Iran the main target of their struggle, the key player in the region are the Kurds. The Kurds have long regarded the US as the main ally, and now they have decided that now is the time when it is necessary to achieve independence and the creation of the state. There is information that they are going to do it in September, and it is possible that USA, Israel can close its eyes to the disintegration of Iraq and establishment of a new independent state — Kurdistan.

But there’s Turkey, which has difficult relations with the Kurds?

Turkey now is not so clear. Turkey is now cooperating with the Kurds because they control the oil-rich province of Iraq — Kirkuk. In addition, on the territories controlled by the Kurds, can go through a pipeline. As Turkey seeks to be a hub, through which gas and oil pipelines.

Although the PKK is an enemy of Turkey for centuries, if the authorities in Kurdistan will more moderates, I think Turkey would be able to compromise in this regard.

And another critical region, where the interests of the major global players — the Korean Peninsula. While everyone is trying not to exert any pressure on North Korea, occupy the position of the observer and are awaiting what will happen next. Except that China is trying to influence its neighbor, through the energy sector. What’s next?

— In the direction of North Korea have been very interesting developments, which sometimes few people pay attention. The United States recognized that in order to seriously take this issue on they need an ally in the region, and that ally was recognized as China. During all bilateral meetings, the Americans say: “Here you are, the Chinese can help us. Please increase your efforts. And the high-handed the North Korean regime is generally not friends with the head”.

But world attention has gone to the point, that Russia is increasing its influence on the North Korean regime. Here are a few examples. In 2013, Russia forgave North Korea is almost completely Soviet debt. Was organized by the business Council between North Korea and Russia. At a recent vote at the UN security Council regarding the missile tests of the DPRK Russia vetoed.

I have the impression that after 2013, when Western countries imposed sanctions against Russia, she realized that she can act both in the direction of North Korea, and Syria. There are some Parallels — Russia wants to become the indispensable partner in the resolution of this crisis. And that she’s not too bad — recently the Central news Agency, North Korea declared it one of the most friendly countries towards them. And even more friendly than China.

When China, as you noted, in response to its nuclear program will limit the supply of fuel to North Korea, Russia has signaled that it is ready to partially compensate this shortage. It is impossible to compare the influence of Russia and China on North Korea, but Russia can significantly undermine the process of consolidated responses of all interested global players in this nuclear issue.

— What is the likelihood that Russia, except for the supply of fuel can pass the North Korean regime some technologies?

— You see, the transfer of such dual-use technologies is always very difficult to track. There is a fairly strong opinion that the missile program of North Korea became possible in many respects thanks to Russian technology. They went in there? This is a question for serious investigators. Uniquely so far in the creation of Intercontinental ballistic missiles, North Korea would not be able without external support and without external technologies.

— Supporting the regime of Kim Jong-UN, Russia may fall into the trap due to the fact that will be responsible for his ward?

— The main threat of the DPRK for Japan and South Korea, and these countries are US allies. This Union is really formalized, so the US can’t just ignore this threat — they have direct obligations.

Here is the scenario when the problem will leave at the mercy of Russia does not work. It is the West imposes on North Korea sanctions, it is the West, according to the North Koreans, complicates their lives and creates a hostile atmosphere. The main enemy of Pyongyang — Washington, not Moscow. I don’t think this problem will leave at the mercy of Russia. Especially since there intersect the interests of many players.

The North Korean nuclear issue, starting with bill Clinton only got worse, and was passed to each new American President with even more problems. Now, despite trump’s statement that the North Korean program will not be held, North Korea carried out another missile launch. In fact, trump even undermined your credibility when put on the line his statement against the statements of Pyongyang.

Today, given that South Korea is stationed a considerable American military presence, given that South Korea and Japan rely on US protection, it’s all very complicated ways of solving this problem.

I’ve heard the opinion that the decision of the North Korean problem lies in two directions: need something to do with the North Korean regime and need something to do with the North Korean nuclear program. Moreover, these two planes do not necessarily intersect.

— What is the probability that a decision will be made on the shift of the regime of Kim Jong-UN?

Responses will be few. Do not have to go to it directly. You can, for example, to promote a “North Korean spring” or “autumn”. Although the level of maturity of the society, the DPRK can not compare with the countries of the Arab East or Eastern Europe — people live in absolute isolation. However, there is a certain number of defectors, there are covert channels of information. In fact, it will require more time to work, but this is an option.

As for the physical removal of Kim Jong-UN, someone needs to muster the political will to go for such a decision.

— Assume that a “North Korean spring” took place in the country that will?

— The situation is unpredictable. This whole stream of refugees poured into South Korea, China. This will create incredible problems. South Korea last 10-15 years relied on policy “solar heat” is peaceful unification with its Northern neighbor. Because she understands that from an economic point of view, the probable domestic political explosion in North Korea able to hit both Seoul and Beijing.

In South Korea in may this year came to power, President moon Jae-In, who is a supporter of soft approach.

Yes. He such moderate views. He is forced to respond to the electoral inquiry — the South Koreans are very unhappy with the developments with the deployment of U.S. air defense and troops that are designed to protect them.

— With the change of power in North Korea, one of the biggest problems is the control of nuclear weapons, is there a solution to this problem?

Is one of the main problems faced by those who are planning an operation to offset the regime of Kim Jong-UN. No guarantee can not be here. How will the events develop on the inside, who eventually comes to the control of these nuclear weapons is a very delicate moment. I think that just the possibility of unauthorized nuclear launches and nuclear non-proliferation is one of the main factors that hinders the current American administration from a military solution to the problem.