The situation in the East of Ukraine is changing. Will there be a “Crimea 2.0?

Military groups in Eastern Ukraine seem to be United in a common goal, but in fact there are some differences. Alexander Zakharchenko said that the Donetsk national Republic and Lugansk people’s Republic form a government based on “friendly relations”. The news of the formation of the new state Ruthenia made a lot of noise, and there is no doubt that relations with Ukraine and Minsk will undergo some changes.

According to ITAR-TASS, a few days ago, the leaders of military factions in Eastern Ukraine, the self-proclaimed Donetsk Republic, made a statement about the creation of the new state Ruthenia.

They say that this issue was one of the main during the signing of the Minsk agreement. Since then two years have passed, but the Ukrainian crisis continues to attract widespread attention.

The conflict escalates again

“It’s not a revolution, but merely a return to history” — said Zakharchenko in an interview to the Los Angeles Times. He also made a new flag that will represent the state. Based on the politician took the flag, in the XVII century belonged to the Russian Cossacks.

7 APR 2014 in Donetsk held a nationwide meeting on the establishment of Donetsk people’s Republic, and on 11 may a referendum was held on joining Russia. In September 2016, the Ukrainian Parliament adopted the law on the special status of these regions by providing broad autonomy for three years, but stressed that the regions remain part of Ukraine.

In less than three years as “a storm again lifted all the stones from the bottom”


Was raised again “sensitive nerve” of Ukraine. “Alexander Zakharchenko — not a politician, he is only a “puppet of Moscow Kremlin”” — said Petro Poroshenko during an official visit to Georgia.


According to the Agency ITAR-TASS reported, Petro Poroshenko stressed that Ukraine is waiting for “split” and that Kiev will regain control over Eastern Ukraine and Crimea. Vice-speaker of the Ukrainian Parliament the same day said: “it is Obvious that the initiative does not belong to Alexander Zakharchenko, and this is not the first time Russia has resorted to such methods”.

Russia calmly responds to open criticism of Ukraine to Russia. Dmitry Peskov said the Agency Sputnik: “the Russian side faithfully fulfilling the Minsk agreements. As for the other issues, they have not yet been discussed.”

The United States and Europe have expressed concern in relation to these events. Based on the report of the European free media, OSCE Chairman Sebastian Kurz warned that all parties must comply with the terms of the contract.

According to Reuters, Germany and France have criticized Russia’s actions in Ukraine. France asked Russia to take measures to prevent the escalation of conflict.

In addition, in military groups in Eastern Ukraine, there are many differences. Neither Donetsk nor Lugansk people’s Republic not recognized. According to Ukrainian TV channel 112, Luhansk side knows nothing about these intentions, and calls into question the feasibility of such action.

One agreement cannot resolve the conflict

“At the moment, the establishment of the state of Ukraine do not comply with the provisions that were set out in the course of the Minsk agreements”, — said the expert on the study of Russia, Europe and Central Asia of the Chinese Academy of social Sciences Jiang in an interview for our newspaper.

In April 2014, the armed conflict began in the Donbass in the East of Ukraine. In September of the same year in Minsk, the three parties reached an agreement on resolving the Ukraine crisis and a ceasefire, but armed clashes continue. In February 2015 was signed by the new Minsk agreements. According to the Agency BBC, the main question was “an immediate ceasefire by all parties to the conflict” were also adopted a number of policy measures to implement the agreements.

Even now, the forecast for the implementation of the Minsk agreements is far from optimistic

A few days after the regular talks in the East of Ukraine happened again military conflict, which led to losses. “Interfax” reported that the special representative of the OSCE said in an interview that the military conflict in Eastern Ukraine being “too cruel”. Donetsk announced the creation of a new, separate state on July 16. According to the Agency ITAR-TASS that Ukrainian military per day broke the cease fire about 57 times, firing in the direction of Donetsk about 240 shells.

According to the latest data of the UN Committee on human rights, since the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis in the East has killed more than 10 thousand people and about 24 thousand were injured.

“Besides the fact that conflict is very difficult to stop some key provisions of the Minsk agreements — the conduct of the elections in the East of Ukraine, the reform of the Constitution was never implemented,” said Jiang in an interview for the newspaper “the Phoenix”.

The noise that rose in connection with the formation of the new state little Russia will affect relations with Ukraine. According to the Ukrainian independent news Agency, the Ukrainian delegation during talks on June 19 stressed that the statements Zakharchenko on the creation of new States violate the implementation plan of the Minsk agreements.

The Los Angeles Times also published an article saying that due to the ongoing conflict in the region the Minsk agreement can be considered broken. European free media commented on the event as follows: “the Minsk agreement on the cessation of hostilities are unlikely to occur and likely won’t be able to stop the military conflict”.

The situation temporarily stabilized, but it won’t help

At the very beginning of the military conflict in Eastern Ukraine, the British newspaper Financial Times wrote: “a week after the annexation of the Crimea situation in Eastern Ukraine escalated, if Donbas wanted to go through the same scenario.”

Will the Donbas on the Crimean scenario?

“I think it’s very unlikely, says Professor of the Diplomatic Academy of Gao FEI. — It is unlikely that Kiev and East Ukraine will be able to leave each other. I think it’s kind of a political move”. Presidential Plenipotentiary envoy in the contact group Boris Gryzlov admitted that the Foundation of the state Malorossiya is an attempt Zakharchenko to challenge the Kiev government.


Gao FEI said: “If the Donbass will remain part of Ukraine, then Russia will receive a huge impact in the region and thus increase the number “of their players on the field.” For Eastern Ukraine will become even more important entry into Russia”.


Ukrainian official said in an interview with Reuters: “Russia wants to achieve peace, especially in the USA, because in crisis countries will be able to support each other and exert influence on other States.”

Jiang And believes that the probability of occurrence of the state Ruthenia is very small. “The local people’s armed factions have no control and are divided into two camps. Russia will not agree on such a serious political risk.”

The Associated Press commented: “Despite the fact that the separatists in Eastern Ukraine have broad support, they have no normal government and strong candidates.”

“The Ukrainian crisis has deeply affected relations between the major powers. The conflict between Russia and the West deepens, and the resolution of the Ukrainian crisis becomes one of the main questions,” said Jiang I.

American analytical centre of Company strategic forecasting published an article which stated: “America supports the confrontation of Russia and Ukraine. The US is deadlocked in talks on resolving the Ukraine crisis. The creation of the state of Ruthenia can be interpreted as the destabilization of the world order”.

Gao FEI believes that the real reason for the Ukrainian crisis lies in domestic economic and social problems of the country. People are disappointed with the actions of the government that led to the current political chaos. According to the Polish newspaper, the New Eastern Europe, 73% of people in Ukraine believe that the conditions of life are deteriorating.

“That is why the Ukrainian crisis cannot be solved quickly, it takes a lot of time, says Gao FEI. Now the parties must faithfully comply with the Minsk agreement, in order to achieve effective conflict resolution.”