These days Turkey is dealing with intense internal and external agenda. Our southern borders there are important events that will affect the next years. The Iraqi army announced the sweep of Mosul by ISIS (banned in Russia — approx. ed.) with the support of the United States and Iran. During the war a city with a population of 1.7 million people was in ruins. In the battle for the city was defeated, but it is unclear when the war will be won.
There is a weak emotional ties and lack of trust between those who liberated the town, and those who have “been liberated” from ISIS. Would that make us witness to the world or another struggle — view. Experts mainly divide the second view. They predict that ISIS will continue to carry out attacks, and the humanitarian drama in Mosul, the sectarian approach of the government can fuel the desire to join the organization. Moreover, they say that this will also impact the increasing influence of Iran in Iraq.
No need to lose sight of that in a period of chaos in the region and the weakness of Iraq Barzani continued preparations for the referendum on independence for Kurds. The implementation of this decision will increase tensions in the region and significantly change the balance sheets.
Meanwhile, on the Syrian front, which is a natural extension of the war with ISIS, formed a very mixed picture. The United States, which went to the West of the Euphrates, looking for ways to push the Shiite militants backed by Iran and on the Syrian border. For the security of its allies — Jordan and Israel — the US is trying to create a zone of de-escalation. In this regard, implementing a model that does not bring relations with Russia to hot conflict, but does not allow warm cooperation with it.
To understand the situation from the point of view of Turkey, should look at closer. 14 July, the head of the Central command of the armed forces of the United States in the middle East Joseph Votel (Joseph Votel) in an interview with Tampa Bay Times made an interesting statement on the nature of the operation in raqqa. Votel said that the operation in raqqa differs from the operation in Mosul. Because of the preparation of LIH, as well as the pressure exerted on the organization of its defeat in Mosul and the loss of territory, the fight can be longer and more fierce. After comparison with the interaction with the Iraqi army Votel said about the convenience of working with “local forces”.
It is noteworthy that, when Votel said that Turkey has legitimate concerns about the Kurdistan workers ‘ party (PKK), he drew attention to the fact that the second and third waves of effects generated by their actions in Syria, are superimposed on the existing complex problems and difficult task. To overcome this, they, as becomes clear, pursue strategies of expression understanding of the concerns of the Turkish side, the transparency of its objectives and measures aimed at reducing the likelihood of conflict.
In this regard, a political decision of the US administration — on the one hand, to continue military cooperation with the PKK / Party “Democratic Union” (PYD) on the battlefield, on the other to continue talking to the Turkish side about the validity of her concerns. And in parallel to isolate a possible military confrontation between Turkey with the PKK in Syria, which will complicate their own operations.
All these arguments and events remind one important historical experience that took place in our region. The Palestinian Jews who fought in the British army during the Second world war, later used the acquired military skills for the creation of Israel. On their radar was the British and the Arabs. Although Americans continue to make “soothing” statements, there is no guarantee that in the next few years learned to fight the PKK / PYD will not go a similar path.
