International Putin’s ambitions in the light of meetings with the presidents of China and the United States

Russia is a neighbor of China, and the neighbors need to get along with. In 2017, the presidents of Russia and China met for the third time, and Russian media enthusiastically reported exceptional personal relations and friendly atmosphere that prevails in the negotiations. The media portrayed everything so that it seems good mood cares first and foremost Putin, when, for example, brings Russian ice cream.

This time the focus was not the menu, and the ceremony in the Kremlin, during which, in recognition of personal contribution to the development of relations between Putin presented XI Jinping, the highest Russian state award — the “Royal” Order of St. Andrew the Apostle. This was followed by a discussion of the 40 bilateral agreements, and the contract was signed more than ten billion dollars…

No “unbreakable” friendship between Russia and China, publicly proclaimed since the annexation of Crimea, nor the presence of the Chinese President in Moscow could not hide the fact how anxious the Kremlin, and with it all Russian media, is looking forward to meeting with trump.

Moscow influenced the course of history?

We will remind that Moscow claimed that trump will meet with Putin before his inauguration. Then said that trump will be right behind her or invite Putin to Washington. However, if XI Jinping Donald trump was found in Mar-a-Lago back in April, Putin continued to wait. We can only speculate whether the award of the order of the notorious Russian “maskirovka”, which was supposed to hide something that would not be enough even the whole fridge stuffed with ice cream, namely, Moscow is asleep and sees the return of former times…

Because of the Russian aggression against Ukraine and Syria, Putin managed to radically change the situation in the sphere of security in Europe and to influence the course of history in the middle East. However, his “successes” ended. Moscow claims that thanks to the genius of its President feels in the changed geopolitical situation, like a fish in water, but none of the basic attributes, which could support geopolitical analysis have not changed.

Russia, the United States remains one of the two nuclear superpowers, but in regard to other attributes of power, she loses more and more. This is most noticeable in the constant, and at worst, declining, the share of global GDP, failure to modernize the economy, on sustainable depending on the extraction and export of raw materials, especially hydrocarbons, and growing demographic challenges. (Not threatened at all by the collapse?)

The capture of the Crimea, maintaining control over Sevastopol and the bombing of Syria is a suitable material for the enthusiastic reporting that make a good impression on the audience, however, in the medium — and especially in the long — term, all this is useless, if Russia does not want to continue just to scare the neighbors, and wants to get some weight in the world.

According to data collected by the world Bank in early 2017, the maximum share in the world GDP belongs to the United States (24 and 32%), in second place — China (14,84%). The share of Russia made up only 1.8% (13th place). It toured not only Japan, Germany and France, but even India, finished seventh with 2.8%.

No one doubts that in the early 21st century the world is changing faster than ever before, but what makes Putin’s Russia? Moscow claims that she “turned” to Asia. Leave aside that example for the Russian “support for Asia” was clearly sending Obama, and refer to some indicators. Russia has managed to make China its second largest trading partner, but it still lags behind the European Union (!). Russia itself has not yet entered the top ten largest partners of China.

Putin clearly did not understand that, despite the political declarations, ice cream, and order Russia to China becomes a more attractive place for investment, because the demand is not so great, the trade relations are hopelessly politicized, burdened by monstrous corruption and very low level of enforcement.

China is principally interested in the establishment of land transport corridors to Europe, but Russia is not the only transit option for the Chinese. The longer sanction, the more likely that the Chinese “go” to other countries. Why do they need to develop those tracks that — due to the recently conquered territories lead to locked doors?

Remember how shortly before the annexation of Crimea, Putin has announced plans to build a Eurasian Union. He was supposed to be based on the same principles as the European Union. But already today it is clear that just as Russia has mastered “free elections, a pluralist democracy and a market economy” will be implemented and the four freedoms of EAS.

Shortly before the annexation of Crimea, Putin proposed to link the Russia-led EAC with the EU and to create a “unified economic and humanitarian space” from Lisbon to Vladivostok. Even after glancing at the map, understand that in case of implementation of this plan will occur megablok which would include not only the United States and Canada (all NATO members and the participants of the negotiations on CETA and the TTIP agreements), but also China and India.

Controlled by Russia, the EAS would provide the territory and raw materials, and EU — rest. Moreover, the impact would be distributed in half. I should get a “geopolitical” is a masterpiece, but all the “cards” Putin mixed Maidan. What will happen in the territory from Lisbon to Vladivostok, unknown to us, but at the end of June, while Putin expected his meeting with trump and told Oliver stone, how strong is Russia, the White house took the Indian Prime Minister modi. Trump confirmed to him that the United States considers India its strategic partner.

If Russia wants to play an important role, she needs to stop trying to divide Europe and America and to stop achieving bipolar in one form or another. Russia needs to focus on new, emerging models of economic and political relations in Asia. It seems, instead of the old-new axis, like the axis of Lissabon to Vladivostok, in Asia, a brand new 3D model, in which, for example, India wants to add to the base triangle (Russia — India — China) and the fourth “peak”, that is the United States.

Most likely, Moscow can be sure that this prospect is not pleasing and Beijing. But as long as China proves able to adapt to changing conditions much better than Russia. As the extension of Putin’s rule, its ability to adapt, likely to tend to zero.

It is important, what powers and what means will be to accelerate the current changes. Now, all the evidence suggests that China, which in recent years adheres to the formula of peaceful development, there is no desire (or capability?) to intensify the action. Let’s see how events will develop in the South China sea, and whether to change the decision of the Indians, who at a summit in Beijing abandoned its stated strategy for the construction of infrastructure in the framework of the project “New silk way”.

However, at the meeting in Moscow, a clear priority was the situation on the Korean Peninsula. Moscow and Beijing came to a common opinion on the necessity of negotiations, condemned the actions of North Korea, but it also criticized South Korea and the United States. It seems that Russia and China hopes that the U.S. and South Korea stop “provoking” North Korea joint military exercises, and the Americans withdraw missile defense system THAAD.

The first is to create leverage in talks with Pyongyang, and the second should motivate Moscow and Beijing to put pressure on the lever. If the United States will continue active actions (not only in the region of the Korean Peninsula), which will affect the Russian-American strategic balance and the doctrine of nuclear deterrence, that Moscow and Beijing will leave a strong argument to yourself.

It is natural that the security issues dominated the meeting between Putin and the tramp. If in the case of China, Russia has little to offer in the field of Economics, in the case of the United States — and less. However, the fight against international terrorism and the war in Syria and the Ukraine — those issues on which Russia has something to say.

However, on these fronts Moscow — even some of the issues her views and shares, for example, Iran — is opposed by Washington alone. Rather, it is opposed by both Paris and Berlin. Prior to the meeting in Hamburg trump spoke very sharply against Russia in Warsaw after talks with Putin on any of the issues discussed had not happened to fracture.

However, the parties indicated that they were interested in dialogue. How (not)to be effective, this dialogue, can show a ceasefire in parts of Syria that was agreed to in Hamburg.