During the visit trump in Warsaw, a new, as yet slight, but noticeable feeling that this is not America meets with Poland, and some part of America fraternizing with some part of Poland, but other parts in both countries is fraternization not approve. Liberal poles begin to consider the liberal Americans more than their than their own conservative countrymen.
Even during the election campaign before the presidential elections in the USA it was possible to notice that, contrary to the stereotypes hypothetical victory trump will be delighted not only in Russia. Saudi princes, Israeli law, Iranian conservatives — and without the Kremlin, the world has accumulated a lot of power, who the President trump seemed much more comfortable option than Hillary Clinton. Not last among them was the national-populists in Eastern Europe, who had hoped that the Republican President would help them to ease the pressure of the liberal Berlin and Brussels.
After winning trump’s many Eastern European leaders did not conceal his joy, enthusiastically arguing that in the near future they will try to meet your new Washington soul mate. Then this talk looked naive bravado, because under Obama it seemed that Eastern Europe is gone from the list of priorities of US foreign policy. But trump loves to refute what everyone thinks. First, he was one of the first took the White house of the President of Romania, and then began its second international tour of Poland.
Everything seems to have ceased for anything to be surprised after Saudi Arabia became the first country visited by the new US President. But trump didn’t disappoint this time: what are in quarrel with the EU has put Poland ahead of all other European countries and even of the G20 summit, was not less unexpected.
On the wrong side of history
The last couple of years, after coming to power of the party “law and justice” Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the foreign policy of Warsaw looked very sad. If neighboring Hungary was still able to balance the conflict with the EU development of relations in the East, Poland found itself in complete isolation. Latest foreign policy triumph of Warsaw was the election of the President of the European Council, when 27 out of 28 EU countries voted to extend the powers of the pole Donald Tusk, and only one vote was against Poland.
The loss of 27 to 1 significantly downgraded the ratings of the ruling party, but suddenly it had fallen to is unprecedented in Polish history triumph: the new President of the United States chooses Poland the first country to visit in Europe.
Knowing the quality of the current foreign policy of Warsaw, the choice of trump cannot be explained by the success of the Polish foreign Ministry. Rather, it has tried the Polish Diaspora in the US, did a lot for the victory of the Republicans in the last election. But the major role is clearly played personal views trump about beauty. Poland is the best in Europe fit in the main slogans of his election program, and the requirements of the current political moment.
Arriving in Warsaw, trump supported a country that regularly spends on defense in NATO required 2% of GDP; before the meeting with Putin, has proven its willingness to confront Russia; demonstrated Berlin and Paris, he has allies in Europe; treated poles on the subject of buying American weapons and liquefied gas. That is, has fulfilled all the required points, without any risk to face some kind of criticism or dissatisfaction is only guaranteed bathing in universal love, admiration and gratitude. Dose of pure positive before an unpleasant conversation at the G20 summit.
The poles, for their part, brought, brought thousands of people with buses from all over Poland — in Warsaw listening to the speech of the American President. Trump’s speech was made perfect. It fully took into account the fact that the Polish audience is very low raises all sorts of questions of the economy, the potential gains from cooperation, plans for the future. For the poles it is more important that a foreign leader showed the right attitude to key moments of Polish history.
At the time no discount on gas or plans joint projects worth billions of dollars would not have been able to improve the reputation of Putin in Poland is stronger than quite a restrained condemnation of the Molotov — Ribbentrop Pact and the Katyn executions. Also trump has now won the popular Polish love is not talking about LNG or loyalty to the fifth article of the NATO, and the fact that in one speech mentioned and a thousand years of Polish history, and the eternal love of the poles for freedom, and the miracle on the Vistula in 1920, and the meanness of the Molotov — Ribbentrop Pact, and the heroism of the Warsaw uprising, John Paul II, and Polish piety, and even Chopin with Copernicus. There were all the main elements of the Polish historical narrative, and in the right, the nationalist interpretation. How can you compare this story with Barack Obama, who has inadvertently managed to call the Nazi concentration camps “Polish”.
In addition to the correct description of Polish history, speech, trump was more targeted moments for the current Polish and European leadership. Contrary to the Brussels criticism he supported Warsaw in its reluctance to accept refugees from Islamic countries, in defending family values in the pursuit of national traditions and in “fight with bureaucracy”. The latter clearly meant that the Polish national leadership must continue bravely to defend their positions in the conflict with the supranational structures of the European Union. Explicit references to the EU in General is not rewarded.
Finally, the most pleasing to the current Polish leaders: trump has not made the slightest allusion to the fact that Poland is now the problem with democracy, media freedom, separation of powers. These problems were, in fact, the only topic in the conversations of Warsaw with the leaders of Western Europe and then the US President stands in front of the Supreme court and says not a word about the creeping subordination of the courts to the Executive power, which is in Poland last year and a half.
Trump has brought to Poland a complete revolution of the world picture. There will be no more isolation, marginality, and the more of Putinism. Now, the United States together with Poland defending Western civilization from Islamic radicals and the malicious intrigues of Russia. Poland is not a pariah, and “heart” and “soul” of Europe, the true guardian of Western values. And, of course, in Poland there are no problems with democracy, but only a proper understanding of the freedoms and traditions, than completely forgot to fascinated by the liberalism of Western Europe.
One visit trump allowed the main psychological conflict not only in Poland, but throughout Eastern Europe in recent years. He explained that it is possible to love Putin’s methods and do not like Putin at the same time. The talk of Brussels on the putinization of Eastern Europe is nonsense. In fact, there is TransAsia Eastern Europe. Western Europe went astray, and the United States and Eastern Europe on the right side of history, they remain true Western American values.
Gas and guns
After trump gave Poland and Eastern Europe this wonderful new picture of the world, to talk about the practical side of the visit would be something small. The only relatively practical document signed during the negotiations was the agreement to purchase Poland American anti-missile complexes “patriot”. The total amount of the contract is impressive — about $8 billion, But the negotiations about the purchase began in 2015 between the previous presidents Komorowski and Obama. And this document adds nothing fundamentally new, it’s still a Declaration of intent that no obligation of the United States.
Summit Creemore, which was attended by the trump — quite vague initiative. It’s only the second such summit in history, and the last in 2016, did not consider it necessary to come even many Eastern European leaders, and suddenly a US President. The poles did not expect so high the guests, and they had to move the event from Wroclaw to the capital.
Apparently, trump has made happy by his presence Treemore because the initiators of this format, which should encourage the cooperation of the twelve countries in Central and Eastern Europe, were made by Poland and Croatia. That is, two countries that are actively promoting the idea of importing liquefied natural gas to Eastern Europe. Poland in the past year has launched the LNG terminal in świnoujście, and Croatia is planning to build in the coming years on the island of Krk.
Theme import liquefied natural gas from USA allowed Trump to simultaneously support the American manufacturer and to once again deny their ties with Russia — they say that it saves Europe from Russian gas dependence, and the “Nord stream — 2”.
Occasional supplies of American liquefied natural gas to Eastern Europe is quite possible — they were already in June this year in Poland. But the prospect of a mass import yet look very distant. Twelve States Creemore (almost all are heavily dependent on imports from Russia) consume annually about 40 billion cubic meters of gas. Launched last year, the Polish terminal is able to accept 5 billion cubic meters per year. Perhaps by 2020 this figure will increase to 7.5 billion cubic meters, but construction of new terminals is not planned — this was built more than ten years.
In Croatia, the project of LNG terminal on Krk island to discuss with the 1990-ies. Since 2008 discuss the subject, with specific investors. But even while construction has not begun — the final decision should be taken only in the beginning of 2018, and the last time was postponed several times. Along with shifts and decreased capacity of the terminal. At first, talking about 10 and even 15 billion cubic meters per year. Then six, then three, now we are talking about 2.6 million cubic meters.
This is not to mention the fact that poles did not manage to achieve from Qatar where they purchase liquefied gas prices more low, than at “Gazprom”. Moreover, long-term agreement with Qatar for the supply of 1.4 billion cubic meters per year was concluded on the terms of take-or-pay, and the period for which the terminal is behind the scheduled date of opening, Poland had to pay the Qataris the difference between the price in the contract and the price at which Qatar was able to sell this gas on the market, although no real supply in the terminal under construction at this time was not yet.
In principle, States don’t need a large market — they only open a single terminal, which last year exported 4.4 billion cubic meters. But the Polish side is clearly willing to pay in exchange for colorful stories trump about the Warsaw uprising.
In the end, trump’s trip to Poland was extremely pleasant for both sides, but still there was one flaw that bothered what is going to turn into a full idyll. The visit was very party.
When it became known that trump will go to Warsaw to the G20 summit, all at once remembered how, in 2003, Germany and France refused to support American intervention in Iraq. Then Washington announced that there is a new Europe, led by Poland, which as a true American allies, and there is an old, questionable loyalty. And now trump, as once Bush wants to play on intra-European contradictions, win over the more Pro-American Eastern Europe, to stand together against the West, which he did not exactly succeed relationship.
The situation is indeed similar in many ways, but Poland has changed a lot since 2003. Then the country was non-partisan consensus: of course, it is necessary to keep the United States because Germany and France at any time will betray us for the sake of collusion with Russia. The American President was considered the absolute authority, and his visits to Poland — the universal joy.
Another thing — 2017. Not all the poles were glad of trump. The unprecedented case — in Warsaw several hundred people came out to protest against the visit of the American President, and under the typical Western slogans against sexism, racism, the environment.
In the major media and among the opposition sounded skeptical voices that the Alliance with Washington is, of course, good, but more important for us than Brussels and Berlin. What trump is a politician of dubious merit. What most rejoice his arrival obscurantist fringe, which, moreover, had been brought on buses, like in Soviet times.
During the visit trump in Warsaw, a new, yet very slight, but noticeable feeling that this is not America meets with Poland, and some part of America fraternizing with some part of Poland, but other parts in both countries is fraternization not approve. Of course national identity remains basic at the international level, but gradually loses its monopoly. Liberal poles begin to consider the liberal Germans and the liberal Americans more than their than their own conservative countrymen. An ardent nationalist trump destroys the psychological national boundaries much better than the most fanatical cosmopolitans.