Moscow — the President of the United States Donald trump must be dizzy from happiness. This week on the sidelines of the summit of “Big twenty” in Hamburg he will finally meet with his authoritarian character and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.
It is very rare when a person who has attained such high office — President of the United States — retains the ability, not to mention the desire, to bow before anyone. But it is equally rare, if not unprecedented, when people in this post to be so beholden to one single foreign leader. Likely Putin’s intervention in the presidential campaign of 2016 could help the victory of trump, while at the same time this has caused his presidency and significant damage.
Trump began to Express his admiration for Putin before the election, he even fantasized on the subject of meeting him. His dreams was so strong that, apparently, they forced trump to claim that he actually met with Putin at the contest “Miss universe” in Moscow in 2013. (On the eve of the competition, trump turned to his readers to “tweet” the question comes whether, in their opinion, Putin on a show, and if you come, whether it will be for trump’s “new best friend”).
This post was refuted, but trump was not ready to give up the dream. In 2015, he hinted that he was with Putin in the “green room” during the filming of the American news program “60 minutes”, where both were interviewed. However, he quickly took his words back, because these interviews are in reality carried out on different continents, it was easy to check. And then trump said that he talked to Putin on the phone, but later contributed to this story correction: he was talking to someone from the inner circle of Putin.
Anyway, the fantasy trump will now become a reality. But at the moment the special Prosecutor investigating the case of possible collusion of the electoral headquarters of the trump of Russia intervened in the election. Against this background, the abolition of all sanctions, even the lungs, which Barack Obama has imposed to punish Russia for its intervention in the elections, may not look the most reasonable idea. However, rumor has it that trump can do it. And given his complicated relationship with prudence, such a scenario is not far-fetched.
If trump will take that step, Putin, of course, will be an occasion for celebration. But one has to wonder, what else brought Russia from the point of view of Putin, it is a clear effort to help Trump to get elected.
Yes, trump is wreaking havoc in the West. We can imagine how happy Russian generals every time trump refuses to confirm the fifth article of the NATO Charter (the fundamental point about the collective defense of the Alliance) and weakens the block, criticizing the leadership of the NATO countries for inadequate defence spending.
Create deep uncertainty and disagreement trump with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, announced after the may summit “the Big seven” that the United States can no longer be considered a “reliable partner” that they once were. Left alone to lead the efforts to resolve the ongoing Ukrainian crisis, Germany, of course, feels a bit outstretched, and Russia, on the contrary, partly excited.
But explicit belief of three of the chaos theory in public administration in Russia is not very profitable, especially now when the economy is gasping after three years of sanctions and low oil prices. Putin fails to fulfil their obligations in an unspoken deal with the Russian middle class: “you keep quiet, and I improve the quality of your life.” Stemming from this dissatisfaction becomes more visible on the streets of Russian cities. The emergence of a new source of uncertainty — the last thing I would like to Putin, and what should the Russian economy.
Of course, it is highly unlikely that the growing resentment will force Putin to abandon re-election next spring. Moreover, he probably believes that he simply has no other choice but to remain President for the rest of my life for their own safety.
But without this very important transaction (it provided Putin a special legitimacy, which in Russia was much more reliable any election) it will be harder to control the various factions of the Russian elite. Incredulous members of these factions may start to question the long term viability of the system built by Putin.
No one knows what will happen when these questions will begin to attract more attention. In 1998, a year before Putin first became President, few people outside of Russia (or even domestically for that matter) heard of it. This touchy ex-KGB Colonel appeared on the political map of Russia due to a sharp decline in the legitimacy of Boris Yeltsin in the last year of his reign.
The essence of the similarities trump and Putin that both are essentially authoritarian leaders. But this similarity (and their relationships, whatever they may be) may be the source of their weakness. Putin’s intervention in the election campaign in the United States weaken the presidential position of trump (this is reflected in the record low level it support), and chaotic behavior trump detrimental to the position of Putin, which are already weakened due to his poor management of the economy. Now Putin has to be nervous even more than usual — because of problems on the streets and may be internal problems.
At the upcoming summit of “Big twenty” trump will enjoy the long-awaited handshake with Putin. But soon the tramp and his authoritarian character can regret that all decided to find each other.