While Washington was preparing to strike at the Assad regime, accusing him of preparing to attack with chemical weapons, reported that the beginning of Ankara’s “second operation “shield of the Euphrates”” — only a matter of time.
At the same time, followed by identifying areas of de-escalation in Idlib and after the Turkish armed forces opened artillery fire on Afrino, news agencies reported that Turkey and Russia have agreed on missiles s-400, but the matter of the loan has not yet been resolved. It is significant that this statement was made immediately after the Secretary of defense Mattis (Mattis) said that the US continues to give weapons to the people’s protection Units (YPG) and after Raqqa.
Let us remember how, in his last speech, President erdoğan stressed that support for YPG, “he finds unthinkable in the framework of the Alliance for NATO.” In this case, of these events related to Syria, we can draw two conclusions.
First, the regression started in Turkish-American relations in may 2013, had still not been overcome and, in contrast, is showing signs of acceleration. The main reason for this regression was the fact that the Obama administration did not treat the security problems of Turkey, caused by the civil war in Syria (such as the threat and needs of the YPG defense), with a sensitivity of ally.
Summit trump Erdogan also failed to meet expectations. The new administration continued the patented CENTCOM policy of “education YPG as a Trustee.” The open support of a terrorist organization (YPG — the Kurdish workers party (PKK)), which represents “a threat to the survival” of Turkey, a NATO member, was not considered contrary to the “Alliance”. I left the Turkey in a situation of “fend for yourself”. So if you want to buy the s-400 will become a source of tension for the benefit of “Alliance”, it will be unfair reaction.
What prompted Ankara to cooperate with Moscow in Syria was a policy of discrimination from the United States, not to mention the fact that Greece uses the s-300. Turkey, which, in addition to the systems of NATO, planning to buy s-400 for national purposes, still not abandoned the search for cooperation with the United States in Syria. Ankara puts forward Washington’s proposal to combat ISIS (banned in Russia — approx. ed.), including an operation in raqqa. The main reason for the setback in Turkish-American relations is that Washington has never had a comprehensive Syria policy. Neither in the period of Obama, nor the administration of the trump… moreover, trump has set another big goal like the encirclement of Iran.
Weaken hard power acquired by Iran through the Shiite militants without committing even more American troops in Syria is an illusion. After Obama has turned Russia into “a force that changed the game” in Syria, Trump is very difficult to strike a balance.
In future, the US is the alienation of Turkey and pushing it to the axis Russia — Iran, it seems, will not be able to take matters into their own hands in Syria. The administration of the trump, it seems, is at an impasse. If trump will be removed in the style of Obama or, making another step forward, strike on Assad’s forces because of “the preparation of a chemical attack”, it doesn’t change the equation in Syria.
And trump any decisive and long-term plan for Syria, will feed the fear of “involvement of American troops in the war.” The institutions in Washington are considering the possibility of “going to war” with Russia and Iran as a nightmare scenario. The second plane of recent events — the gradual clarification of the new equation in Syria. “Short-sighted” US policy in Syria only strengthens the axis of Russia — Iran, but also with every day more and more urges Turkey to cooperate with Russia.
In conditions where support for terrorist organizations YPG, Mattis defines as “short-term temporary situation, which is the result of forced necessity, not preference”, Ankara has a lot to say about “necessity”.
That is why the search for Turkey opportunities to buy s-400 from Russia and talks about the surgery in ‘ afrīn not portend any new balances. On the contrary, when trump only accelerated the process begun by Obama.
It “forced” the steps that Ankara is planning to do in accordance with the new concept of Washington about “Alliance”.
