Relations between the US and Russia, the middle East and Turkey: where do we go

Some observers, pay attention to the election campaign of Donald trump and his rhetoric, which survived long after his election victory, believed that the relations between the US and Russia will be on our honeymoon.

And in contrast to political observers, are passionate about this conviction and believe that at the global level, there will come some discharge, was another point of view. Its proponents assumed that the visibility of our honeymoon after some time will disappear and relations between the two major powers will move in the direction of the new polarization. Someone even called this view “tread new cold war”.

Those who held the second view, in support of his thesis drew attention to the fact that the new senior person, making decisions and occupying important places in the close environment of trump, have military origins. Among these important entities point to the Minister of defense of Mattis (Mattis) and the national security adviser McMaster (McMaster).

In the estimates for foreign Affairs and security policy, which was announced by the commanders who took part in missions in the middle East and included in the new American administration, as the main parameters was called as follows: strengthen the fight against ISIL (banned in Russia — approx. ed.); in relations with Iran do not show such understanding, as Obama; in relations with Russia to stay away and to tread carefully. When viewed from this perspective it was easy to see that the US, despite the rhetoric trump will not be able to survive the honeymoon in relations with Russia.

Developments in international relations, sometimes advancing rapidly, sometimes very slowly and stretch out over time. Did not escape the attention of the fact that relations of the USA and Russia evolyutsioniruet differently than described trump. The fact that this conversion occurs faster than expected, due to several important events.

The first event is started in USA the investigation associated with the trump decision to fire former head of the FBI, and, as becomes clear, this investigation will gradually deepen, accelerate, increasingly important. It has been alleged that this investigation can occur when some persons from the administration of the trump of Russia, data of Russian interference in presidential elections in the United States and that trump has taken the position that contributed to the investigation, and contributed to the concealment of it all. The positive atmosphere observed in relations between the US and Russia immediately after the election trump, as you move this investigation forward is beginning to be replaced by a negative Outlook.

The second event is due to the fact that the U.S. is faster than expected, presented its position on the Iranian issue. The fact that Iran, despite the agreement signed with him on the nuclear program, continuing missile tests, they did even Obama. The administration of the tramp, on this basis, quickly began to give signals that its view on Iran will not be as constructive as they did Obama.

To believe that the crisis with Qatar, came suddenly — so not fully assess what is happening and to bring this new event in the Persian Gulf only to the tensions Saudi Arabia and Qatar. However, it would be more realistic to interpret this crisis as a reflection of the positions of the US and Saudi Arabia against Iran.

The third event — the situation in Syria. Lately there are more and more “incidents” in the United States against elements of the Syrian regime. The regime is trying to respond to attacks on actions “of the Democratic forces of Syria.”

Some time ago the United States declared that the departure of Assad as President is not treated as “inherent” condition from the point of view of the future of Syria. Some observers believe that this event limits the ability of Russia to bargain with US about Assad in Syria.

The fourth event takes place in the framework of the fight against ISIS and shows that operations in Iraq’s Mosul and Syria’s raqqa narrow the encirclement and complicate the position of LIH. To expect that this situation will provide a more stable atmosphere in the neighboring regions, is wrong. After all, for something to fill the space, which will free ISIS, apparently, will be fought in the full sense of the laws of the wolf.


© Ministry of defence Rfsuny de-escalation in Syria

The situation in Turkey is gradually complicated. Turkey, which along with Russia has assumed control over the areas of de-escalation in Idlib, will try to maintain a balance on the critical line of fire between regime forces and the Syrian opposition. The whole world knows that the Damascus regime wants to make a cleaning in Idlib. In this regard, the question arises: how the unity of the understanding, which Russia failed to hold with the United States, will be in force with Turkey?

On the other hand, it is unclear what the balance will arise in Mosul in the aftermath of ISIS. It is unknown whether to leave the “Democratic forces of Syria” from the region after an operation in raqqa. In this regard, it is difficult to say that the problems in relations between the US and Turkey to fully overcome.

Finally, an increasing number of those who believe that the Qatari crisis is the Overture to a new polarization in Turkish-American relations. Henceforth it becomes impossible to find a convincing answer to the question, where does our us foreign policy in the Middle East.