Russia supports the regime of Bashar al-Assad for the past six years since the start of the Syrian revolution, however, raises a number of questions that still have no clear answers. What Russia wants from Syria in the middle East? Why she insists on maintaining the regime, leading a desperate fight that seems soon will be forgiving of his people? Whether or not this intervention for the sake of Bashar al-Assad or is it all in the interests of Russia itself?
The origins of Moscow’s interference in the Syrian problem
Russia began to interfere in the Affairs of Syria since the beginning of the Syrian revolution in 2011 through the use of its veto on a resolution on sanctions against the Assad regime if he continued to use violence to civilians of the Syrian people.
Right of veto of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (Russia, China, France, UK and USA), which allows each of them to reject any solution, represented by the Security Council, without explanation. Any of these five countries to reject the resolution adopted by the 15 member countries, even if this decision is approved by the other 14 States.
The veto, the first for Russia on the Syrian problem, it has been used by that state eight times, most of which were supported more from China.
The use of the veto is not the only thing that makes Russia to support Bashar al-Assad. It also plays a crucial role in many international resolutions against the regime, always supporting and protecting him even when he was accused of using chemical weapons.
By military intervention in Syria, Moscow has continued to maintain political support for the regime of Bashar al-Assad. In addition, before 2015, Russia supplied large quantities of their weapons and anti-aircraft defense troops of the government, and on September 30 of the same year, the international community was surprised and discouraged by the fact that she was under the pretext of fighting terrorism, sent its warplanes to bomb sites of the opposition in Syria. Such actions the state has taken without coordination with the international coalition led by the United States against the “Islamic state” (banned in Russia — approx. ed.) in the course of the year and prikladyvaya effort to stop military action inside Syria.
What distinguishes Russia’s military intervention?
Russia’s military intervention differs from similar operations in other countries. Moscow has taken such action after the deterioration of the situation in the ranks of the government army and fighters supporting the Assad regime. In addition, they lost more than 70% of the territory of Syria after the failed invasion of the United States, whose goal was the elimination of ISIS.
Why Russia intervened in the Affairs of Syria at this time?
After the deterioration of the Syrian army and significantly reduce its combat readiness Moscow was visited by Qasem Soleimani — the commander of the special unit of the Islamic revolutionary guard Corps “al-Quds”, meaning to draw Moscow’s attention to dangerous changes in the military situation, which at that time happened in Syria. After a few trips, most of which were secret, Soleimani failed to convince Russians of the credibility of his concerns about the possibility of the overthrow of Assad.
This confirms the Iranian newspaper “Kiyan”: Soleimani — architect of Russia’s intervention in Syria, he is a key figure in the cooperation agreement between Russia, Syria, Iraq and Iran.
© AP Photo, the Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader via Ayatolla Ali Khamenei at the graduation ceremony at the Islamic revolutionary guard Corps
Russia’s intervention in the conflict has increased gradually: at first only partially recognized this fact, to analyze the reaction of the world community, then fully recognized, and then altogether confessed that Moscow has its own political interests in Syria.
First said about preparing for a permanent military presence on Syrian territory, and then announced that the execution of military contracts, which were concluded by Moscow with the Assad regime.
The Assad regime has become a fiction, and took the reins of Moscow
In connection with the interference in the internal Affairs of Syria of a large number of States, of which one of the most significant is Russia, the independence of Syria is expressed at the moment only inscription on the world map. So, Foreign Policy magazine writes: “After Damascus fully obeyed the Russians and the Iranians, and Washington began to support the armed opposition, Syria has ceased to exist, and the division of its territory has become a tangible reality due to the lack of someone who’d be able to merge.”
In his report from Damascus magazine says the following: “after six years of war, it is clear that the Assad regime will remain. But he was a dummy, which has no strategy how to get unity in the country which was tore by war.
This report echoed those statements coming from Russia that Damascus does not possess the political will and unable to defend themselves, and that Russia now decides on the domestic and international agenda on Syria.
The weakness of the Syrian regime is not confined to the military-political sphere, it is comprehensive. It is evident even in failing at something does not agree with the Russian. Foreign Policy has published an article by Israeli journalist with British citizenship Jonathan Sabira of the Israeli center Herzl, in which he says about Syria: “the Country is subject to the Assad regime and his allies — Iran and Russia — at the time, as the US arming its allies, but none of them really has no control over the situation.”
Sabir continues: “last night I spent in Damascus, young officials from the Ministry of information was accompanied by a delegation, of which I was one, invited us to go out to drink, it was at the end of April, all the places were crowded, cool wind blew, one Russian journalist was drunk, he was accompanied by a man in Russian military uniform, which led him to a nearby restaurant opposite the hotel, where he sat by my colleagues. They and the reporter exchanged a few words, and then broke out a verbal sparring”.
In his article, the author continues: “At one point Russian journalist abruptly pulled out a pistol and pointed it at one of the members of the delegation then went to the hotel and threatened one of its employees in the form of all this time was beside him and remained silent.” In conclusion, Sabir says: “what ended this verbal sparring says about what is really going on in areas controlled by the regime. When the members of the delegation contacted law enforcement to report the incident, they are asked about the nationality of the attackers, when he heard that the Russian, then said that not to do anything”.
The position of Russia serves only its interests, not Assad, as it may seem
For anyone dedicated to the Syrian problem is not a secret the fact that Russia supports the Assad regime and is doing everything to ensure that he remained in power, but some of the statements made by officials, confirmed by concrete actions, prove otherwise.
In material of “Russia today” with reference to Austrian newspaper Die Presse and the author of Martin kileen says about the prospects of military cooperation between Russia and Iran and the political dialogue on Syria after the agreement between Moscow and Ankara. According to Killeen, “Russia can not long remain a participant in the war in Syria, particularly after complications of relations with some countries in the region, which made it almost impossible for the existence of the Syrian state”.
© AFP 2017, Louai Were of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Central Damascus. 7 APR 2017
Killeen also writes: “It would be absolutely natural if the Assad regime gradually began to find a replacement through an agreement that takes into account Russian interests on the one hand, and which would have reduced tensions between Moscow and countries that are wary of its role in Syria, on the other hand”.
On the same occasion the Minister of foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov during a press conference with his us counterpart John Kerry and UN envoy for Syria De Mistura said: “We are in General terms discussed the ceasefire in Syria, but did not come to an agreement on this issue, we disagree with the departure of Assad, and Russia believes that it may be solved only by the Syrians themselves”.
These statements came after several allegations, some of which came from Iran, particularly from the commander of the Islamic revolutionary guards Corps, Mohammad Ali ja’afari: “Our Northern friend, who recently came to Syria to provide military support to the country only serves their interests, he, unlike us, does not interest Assad and the preservation of his power, but in any case, at the moment he’s here and maybe forced to act as for Assad for some other reasons.”
It is obvious that the difference in the positions of Iran and Russia could cause Moscow to take its own measures to guarantee the preservation of already achieved in Syria results. Iran for Russia is a heavy burden in light of its relations with the rest of the world, and the position of Tehran are not the only support Assad and contain the expansionist ideas based on religious factor. This only exacerbates the political isolation of Moscow.
In Syria, Russia has achieved most of the goals that it set for itself. One of the most important security Hamim military base in Latakia province and the inviolability of the positions of the allies, as well as confirmation of the effectiveness of its weapons in order to eventually, this resulted in something similar to the cold war with the United States.
The Russian statement confirms the illegitimacy of the Assad regime: it would have been overthrown if not for her intervention
The rhetoric of Russian officials has changed, it became audible condemnation and even threats against the Syrian regime, which caused ridicule from the enemies of Assad.
So, the words of Sergey Lavrov, Minister of foreign Affairs of Russia, caused a wave of jokes on the part of the Syrian opposition, much of which took his words as a recognition of the power of the revolutionary groups from the lips of an enemy. One of the phrases in his speech, Lavrov said that the resistance of Damascus would be broken within two or three weeks, if not for Russian intervention. But from the members of the Iranian militias and Hezbollah, the statement caused a wave of negativity, as it is possible to calculate the lack of recognition of their efforts in preserving Assad in power. The mouthpieces of their discontent became social media. So, the journalist Hussein Murtada, Director of the Syrian branch of the Iranian TV channel Al Alam in his Twitter account thus said Lavrov: “If not for the Syrian army, Hezbollah, the resistance and the steadfastness of Syria, then Ukraine would have conquered Moscow for a few days.”
لافروف: لولا روسيا لسقطت دمشق خلال اسبوعين
اقول: لولا الجيش السوري سورية الله وحزب وصمود لاحتلت اوكرانيا موسكو بأيام pic.twitter.com/QwkEjAnRLT
— #حسين_مرتضى (@HoseinMortada) 17 Jan 2017
Lavrov: if not for Russia, Damascus would have fallen in two weeks
I: if not the Syrian army, Hezbollah and the resistance forces, Ukraine would be occupied Moscow
The head of the Committee for international Affairs Konstantin Kosachev responding to statements by the U.S. representative to the UN Nikki Haley said in an interview with CNN: “In Syria there is no political solution if Assad will remain in power,” Assad, he said, is “destruction.”
This statement does not correspond to the statements Lavrov, it confirms the fact that Russia and America are trying to find a political solution to the crisis in which Assad has no place. Thus, it became necessary to find a replacement for the regime of the incumbent President.
The statements of Russia on Syria briefly disappeared from political discourse, but soon re sounded with greater clarity. The website “Tabnak”, which is headed by General Mohsen Rezai close to the Islamic revolutionary guard Corps, writes: “According to the Russian-American plan, which was discussed by the Minister of foreign Affairs USA John Kerry with his Russian counterpart Lavrov, it is assumed the removal from power of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.”
Analyzing the words of Lavrov, “Tabnak” adds: “Bashar Assad is not our ally — this is the first time Moscow in a similar manner speaks about President Assad.”
Open military intervention of Russia in the Syrian land
Russian military invasion in Syria occurred 5 years after the beginning of the revolution, but the Russia has supported the Assad regime in the international arena. In early 2015, Russian armed forces openly invaded Syria ignoring the operations that were carried out by the coalition against the ISIL terrorists, as well as not putting the issue of his intervention to the discussion in the UN Security Council.
First, the transactions were used videoconferencing, based at the airfield Hamim, but then were held and land operations in several regions of Syria.
The first provinces, to the land which fell Russian shells 30 September 2015 were HOMS and Hama, and on October 7 of that year Russian ships on the Caspian sea made a start 26 Intercontinental missiles at targets in Syria, which, according to Moscow, struck targets in the territories controlled by ISIL. In the province of HOMS, Russia was equipped with a second airfield — the “Sirat”.
© RIA Novosti, the Russian defense Ministry | go to fotomancer of defence of Russia Sergey Shoigu at the airbase “Hamim”
In Aleppo Russia under cover from the air for the first time participated in the operation of clearing Aleppo from the opposition forces, together with Hezbollah and the Syrian army on 8 February 2016.
But not only in these areas was conducted bombing VKS RF, not only were launched Intercontinental missile. All this was in the rural areas of Idlib and Deir ezzor.
District al-Vaer in HOMS witnessed the Russian intervention of another kind, when with the mediation of Russia had concluded agreements with the opposition forces, which assumed evacuation of 30,000 people, all those who have expressed a desire to the North in Idlib province. The district came under the control of the regime, and his patrols came the Russian military police, armed with large-caliber machine guns. This is the first military intervention of its kind in Syria from Russia.
After the complete transfer of all of the districts of Aleppo under the control of the Syrian army and her allied forces, Russia has deployed a battalion of the military police in Aleppo, according to Moscow, to support the process of political settlement and peace in the region. All of these steps is a lot of evidence of how Russia is turning the Assad regime into a dummy mode.