Visit of Petro Poroshenko in the United States and meeting with Donald trump became a strong blow to Russia’s foreign policy and demonstrated a foreign policy strategy at the White house on the Ukrainian-Russian crisis. What steps will need to be taken by Russia in connection with such failure?
All the necessary assurances of the American side of this. I have the feeling that the strategy (on the Ukrainian question, — approx. ed.) not only exists, but is already enshrined as the foreign policy concept of the United States. Existing concerns that trump can use Ukraine as a subject for bargaining, are gradually removed. Statement of the American side that sanctions against Russia will continue until the de-occupation of Ukraine, is a very serious statement and in the framework of international agreements, the obligations under the Budapest Memorandum. It seems that the US are committed to the rapid solution of this problem. The danger was that the occupation of Crimea and the presence of armed forces of Russia in the East of Ukraine can pass in the chronic stage. Just as in Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria. But, apparently, this will not happen. Russia was given the opportunity to begin to correct the situation with Ukraine.
Putin now the main political and diplomatic challenge is not to negotiate, but simply to meet with the President of the United States. While this failed, it is expected that the meeting will be held during the summit of “Big twenty” on 7 July. But there is no clarity, especially after the statements of the defense Ministry that they will shoot down in Syria all the flying objects. Can result in the fact that trump would refuse such a meeting. This probability is very high, because any provocation could disrupt the meeting, and the defense Ministry much to the provocation.
Now significantly increases the likelihood of isolation of Russia, but in the hands of Putin. As long as the will to continue aggression against Ukraine, the economic situation in Russia will deteriorate. The undisputed political isolation of Putin, who until recently was a member of the “Big eight” leading States, and now with him, on the one hand, are not considered, and on the other, meeting with Putin is a serious loss of image for foreign politicians.
Another important point that you need to pay attention to military-technical cooperation. There were several very harsh statements from the Russian side about the possibility of nuclear war if the United States will be present in Ukraine. Fright took Russian propagandists, but that does not scare the United States, and a statement on the expansion of military-technical cooperation with Ukraine, President Poroshenko met with U.S. Secretary of defense James Mattis, the application of the trump of cooperation only confirmed this failure. Therefore, the situation in the region changes significantly. United States involved in the conflict.
Earlier there was a statement about the necessity of direct contacts between Ukraine and Russia. I understand how hard it is for Putin and his entourage. But, apparently, the call had some action and maybe with time we will see this format of direct negotiations. These will be direct negotiations about the de-occupation of Ukraine.