8 June in Britain were held early parliamentary elections. Following the vote, the Conservative party headed by Prime Minister Theresa may has lost the majority in the House of Commons. According to experts, this suggests that British society since the vote on the referendum on withdrawal from the EU is split, and the elections were a tactical defeat may.
The conservative party failed to obtain a majority in Parliament
In 2015 in the UK held parliamentary elections, and the next vote was due in 2020. However, in 2016, the referendum, the British people voted for the country’s withdrawal from the EU (Brexit) and the Prime Minister of great Britain David Cameron has resigned. Its post was held by Theresa may. In April 2017, it was announced the holding of early parliamentary elections in order that British Cabinet could receive a solid mandate for negotiations with the EU on secession from the Union. However, the results of the vote showed that the plan failed – the Conservative party was unable to obtain a majority (322 seats) in the British Parliament.
So, the Conservative party received 318 mandates labour party – 261 Scottish national party 35, liberal Democrats 12, the Democratic unionist party 10, others 13.
If we compare the results demonstrated by the Conservative party, led by may with their results in previous elections, the elections are like and got the biggest faction, but at the same time, lost the majority in Parliament. On the other hand the labour party was partly won on the outcome of the vote, increasing the number of seats in Parliament, but this is not enough to form a ruling coalition, told “Today” the expert of the Ukrainian Institute of policy analysis and management Mr Will. This result of the Conservative party, perhaps, is the result of a too hard line on the issue of Brexit, which recently conducted may. Yet its role could play and three of the attack, which occurred in Britain in 2017, he said.
“Theresa may went to the polls in order to strengthen its mandate, and reaffirm its legitimacy as Prime Minister. And so that seems to be confirmed, but, however, there is such an unfortunate thing, as the decrease in the representation of parties in Parliament, says, Will, If we talk about balance, it turns out that the results of these elections did not allow the internal political problems that arose by referendum in 2016 on Brexit, when British society was actually divided in half – for the country’s withdrawal from the EU vote is 51.9% versus 48.1 percent”
Now this ratio could be slightly changed, but the 50/50 split remained, he said. This means that still the UK is not a solid “Yes” regarding the implementation of Brexit.
As the Director of the Institute of socio-political designing “Dialogue” Andriy Miselyuk, the election results can be called a tactical defeat Theresa may. Announcing early elections, she expected to get a convincing majority in Parliament to lead a course on the implementation of Brexit without regard to the possible political allies. However, this plan was unsuccessful, he said.
“The reason for this is that the UK has a protracted and very serious political crisis which stems from the fact that during the vote for secession from the EU the country was split into two approximately equal parts. And this conflict until the time was latent, hidden state. And now he came out, and it affected how I voted British,” he said Miseluk.
The British were not given a vote of confidence to those who insist on Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union, and especially to those who speak about the possibility of the “hard” way, he said.
So, the Conservatives, headed by Mae in favor of “hard” Brexit with the rejection of the single market and open borders, and the labour party under the leadership of Jeremy Corbin – “soft” Brexit preserving a certain level of integration with the European Union.
Given the fact that the balance has changed in favour of the conservatives, headed by Mei, now aktiviziruyutsya and opponents of Brexit, and those who insist on his variant of solution of the problem – not that which sees the Prime Minister. And it will further increase political instability, said Miseluk.
What about Brexit?
Direct negotiations about conditions of withdrawal from the EU will begin, as scheduled earlier, after the parliamentary elections on 19 June. But based on the results of the early parliamentary elections, may may try to adjust his position on the “hard” output, says an expert on international Affairs Vladimir Will.
“It is clear Theresa may will be forced to reckon with these results (the elections – Ed.). She’ll probably try to adjust its position on the EU that Brexit was more “soft”. But, along with that British society remains divided almost equally. And in this case preserved the political “vicious circle” – 50/50,” said Will.
Analyst Andrew Miseluk sure now the process of a British exit from the EU will go the way I wanted Mei – the probability that it will be “hard” Brexit, is reduced. Supporters of the “soft” way out will be to lobby this idea and may have to reckon with them, he said.
The resignation may now not be – experts
In connection with the results of early parliamentary elections, the leader of the British labour party Jeremy Corbyn called on Theresa may to consider the resignation. According to Andrei Miselyuk, from the point of view of political logic of this decision would be warranted – if the leader of the party announces early elections, intending to get a majority, and, as a result, loses even the majority, which was, it is a tactical defeat. However, such a defeat does not mean resignation, although opponents of the Prime Minister will urge her to it, observes the analyst.
“I think she will not take advantage of this offer, as it has its own program, their vision of the future relations of great Britain with the European Union, the country’s withdrawal from the EU, etc, as a politician, ambitious and possessing a strategic vision, will try to realize them. To leave now means to completely admit defeat, the inconsistency of his course,” says Miseluk.
She may have received from Queen Elizabeth II’s permission to form government. According to her, the new Cabinet will deal with the preparation and negotiation of Brexit. In addition, it stated that the British Parliament will be a coalition of the deputies of the Conservative party (318 seats) and the Democratic unionist party (10 seats).
Thus, according to Mr Rein, Mei is a very powerful opposition and, by and large, it cannot be excluded that at a certain stage can again be held early parliamentary elections in the autumn or winter of 2017.
Recall that, according to preliminary data, the UK can leave the EU in March 2019. It is expected that negotiations on secession from the Union will last about two years.