In the middle East is a moment of historical importance. All the unions and alliances of States, groups, and antagonists of the authorities — in disarray. And this is happening across the region.
In General, the United States failed its objectives, Iran and Russia have strengthened their power, and who suffer the most are the ones for which ISIS (a terrorist organization banned in Russia — approx. lane) wanted to create a state, and which are fighting against ISIS want, as they say, to liberate Sunni.
In fact, they’re not free, and generally destroy, and no one has any plan for their future.
All this results in the strengthening of terrorism in Europe and could lead to the creation of the new ISIS in the middle East, despite the fact that today was first attacked by the “capital” of the current ISIS.
Here is what’s happening right now:
1. Mosul fell almost
From ISIS in Mosul was only a small territory, mainly the old town and the urban areas to the North. These parts of Mosul, the most difficult to capture, as there are crowded, the streets are narrow, and geographically to the East of this area limits the Tigris river.
Remnants of the ISIS terrorists fiercely fought during the day, but, according to the calculations, especially for a long time they do not hold.
The majority of Sunnis who lost their homes in Mosul, lost his city. What was left, destroyed in the fighting, many have lost property and family members in clashes between ISIS and other forces, safe places left.
© AFP 2017, Ahmad Al-RubayeИракская girl near tents in a camp for internally displaced persons Hammam El Alil South of Mosul
If the Sunnis will remain in Mosul they face violence from all sides, and if they become refugees, they road in the campground.
An acute shortage of food continues from the beginning of the siege of Mosul, about nine months ago, people exhausted by war, many were wounded.
In Iraq and Syria they have no political power in Iraq — and no natural resources, by which to live. They are more closely Shiite soldiers.
There is no resettlement plan Sunnis. If Iraq is divided into three parts — Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish — in a bid to put an end to the religious conflicts that erupted after the US invasion in 2003, Shiites and Kurds will have everything necessary for survival, i.e. oil, fresh water and fertile land, and the Sunnis will not be anything.
Simply put, they will once again be in the same situation which was before the emergence of ISIS. The situation was so desperate that they then supported the ISIS to come and said that you would save them.
Therefore, it is likely that there will be a new Sunni terrorist organization — a new ISIS.
2. The Iraqi government can take back the land that the Kurds have won in Iraq.
The greatest benefit from the war against ISIL in Iraq were the Kurds. They strengthened its government and expanded territory.
The Iraqi government recognized Kurdish as a Federation of three regions — Erbil, Sulaymaniyah and Duhok. However, in the course of the war, the Kurds have expanded their land and now they include also Sinjar and Kirkuk.
This area has historically been controversial, they have been arabized under Saddam Hussein, so the Kurds believe that they have a right to them.
The problem for the Kurds is to be able to preserve these extended areas after the fall of ISIL. Iraqi government forces have now started to Express the intention to return them.
Iraqi popular front for the Forces of popular mobilization (Hashd al-SHAABI), mainly consisting of Shiite soldiers and the Shiite are the majority in Iraq over the last week has been included in many occupied the Kurdish Yezidi villages in Sinjar, one of the contentious areas.
The Yezidis, a minority, severely affected by ISIS. The Forces of popular mobilization are saying that is only going to protect Sinjar from ISIS, but they also want to push out the Kurdistan workers ‘ party, the Kurdish and the Peshmerga-Kurdish Yazidi YBS Alliance.
The forces of popular mobilization argue that the Yazidis have a right to these villages, but there must not be present Kurdish armed forces or political parties.
Kirkuk is another controversial area, which the Kurds occupied during the war and where are going the participants of the people’s mobilization. In this area there is oil, so that there is an even higher probability can arise in a military conflict, if the Kurds and Iraqi government forces will not find a political solution.
The Hawija region in the neighborhood of Kirkuk is controlled by ISIS, so that soon the forces of popular mobilization appears nearby. Soon the planned attack on Hawija. If Kurds will be able to conduct an offensive, it will decide the fate of Kirkuk. Then the Kurds will be able to leave it behind. However, this is unlikely, given the military capabilities of the Kurds, and therefore, the forces of popular mobilization in support of the Iraqi army, too, will fight in Hawija.
When ISIS is finished, the next step is to Kirkuk.
Thus, the Kurds run the risk of losing the newly occupied lands, and this can lead to new wars in Iraq.
3. Kurdish troops entered the “capital” of ISIS Raqqa
This day will go down in history as the day began the attack on ISIS in raqqa. Offensive against ISIS in Iraq’s Mosul started on 17 October 2016, and it seems to end it is 6 June, which is symbolic: the day launched an offensive on ISIL in Syria’s raqqa.
Forces that are offensive in raqqa, called the Democratic forces of Syria and mostly made up of Kurds, with the support of about a thousand elite American soldiers. Also, the Alliance are the Sunnis and Yazidis.
© AP Photo by Raqqa Media Center – FileБоевики Islamic state during a parade in raqqa, Syria
The democratic forces of Syria attacking Raqqa from the North, West and East.
Raqqa is the most important military and political stronghold of ISIS, and if ISIS loses here, they will have no “state” in Iraq or Syria.
This offensive means a lot for the future of Kurds in Syria.
If Assad will remain in power after the fall of ISIL, the Kurds can get recognized Federation in the North-East of Syria — the Kurdish region Rozhava (Syrian Kurdistan).
This is a big victory for the Kurds and a great loss for Turkey, as Turkey does not want to have a Kurdish self-government close to its borders. Turkey and PKK fighting each other for close to three decades, and strengthening the power of this Kurdish faction in Syria threatens the Turkish government, both politically and from a military point of view.
Turkey therefore many months, bombed the Kurds, trying not to let them get into Raqqa, but here it is, the war seems lost.
The fact that the Democratic forces of Syria can now conduct the offensive is in part thanks to the United States.
4. The U.S. is losing power — but earn money
Therefore, the United States and NATO ally Turkey are now fighting in Syria against different opponents.
USA long delayed with the support of the Kurds in Syria. Under Obama America has supported the FSA, the Free Syrian army, which fought in particular against the Kurds allied with Turkey.
SSA is also associated with sunitsch-extremist terrorism in Syria. The US supported the FSA in the hope that it will overthrow Assad, but apparently, Assad will remain in power with the support of Iran and Russia. Assad’s forces, in addition, get help from Lebanese Hezbollah, a Shiite army, which, in turn, is supported by Iran.
The Iraqi Forces of popular mobilization are also getting some support from Iran. This means that military and political influence the US has continued unabated throughout this journey from Iran through Iraq and Syria to Lebanon. Whatever the US strategy to weaken the influence of Iran and Russia, they all failed, and the influence of Iran and Russia, on the contrary, increased.
On the other hand, the US signed a deal for trillions of dollars by selling weapons to the regional enemy of Iran, Saudi Arabia.
5. Qatar was expelled from Saudi coalition and the GCC
Qatar — the richest country in the world per capita, and one of the most controversial. They take all from an American military base to the Taliban and the “Muslim brotherhood” (a terrorist organization banned in Russia — approx. ed.).
The latter led to the fact that Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries have excluded Qatar from their alliances.
All these countries are Sunni, and the “Muslim brotherhood” — also Sunnis, so why is because of this organization was expelled to Qatar?
© RIA Novosti, Alexei Nikolsky | go to fotobanka of the state of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani
The reason is that “Muslim Brothers” to promote their position in society through political organizations and seize power through popular vote. When they get power, they may resort to violence to keep it. In this way they seized government power during the Arab spring in Egypt.
They were later overthrown by the military and declared a terrorist.
Organization that shapes political opinion and calls for an uprising of the people is a big threat to dictatorships like Saudi Arabia. But the fact that Saudi Arabia has gone so far as to stop transport to Qatar, a sign of desperation.
The Sunni extremist movement that Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States financed as their “proxy army” to lose territory, oil prices fell, the Arab spring cost a lot of money — and despite all these wars, Iran gets more and more power in the middle East, with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries feel backed into a corner.
The fact that Qatar in this situation, sheltered by an organization that wants to influence the opinion of the people, is regarded almost as a betrayal of the country even said that it fulfil the instructions of Shiite Iran.
The “Muslim Brothers” have exactly the same goal as ISIL, the Islamic Caliphate for Sunnis.
In Sweden this terrorist organization is not considered, but rather give her the benefit of the state, according to the report of the Organization on public safety and preparedness (MSB).
The development of these wars to such organizations creates favorable conditions for recruiting future extremists and terrorism.