Putin’s annoying even its supporters — the political scientist Oreshkin on Ukraine and Kremlin methods cheap

June 5, Montenegro officially became a member of NATO. As stated by the defense Minister Predrag Boskovic, its entry into the Alliance is not anti-Russian essence. However, the worsening of relations between the two countries is gaining momentum, there is growing evidence of Russian involvement in a failed coup attempt in Montenegro last year, which failed to stop the path of the Balkan States in NATO. According to Russian political analyst Dmitry Oreshkin, the Kremlin should expect more attempts to prevent rapprochement of the Balkan countries with the West and NATO.

In an interview with “Apostrophe”. … also suggested that the insults that sound from Russia to other Nations, particularly Ukrainians, are perceived as a sign of strength, in fact, shows the weakness of the Putin regime and starting to annoy supporters of the Russian President.

Apostrophe: Now Montenegro is officially in NATO. Why Russia, despite the attempts of destabilization of the Balkan countries, are unable to prevent its entry into the Alliance?

Dmitry Oreshkin:
the Main reason: Russia does not have enough resources. In the broadest sense of the word resources. Russia, unfortunately, is unable to create an attractive model for the countries of Eastern Europe, and they naturally pereorientirovanija in the opposite direction — to the West. Russia is quite annoying, destroys it, but not Russia, and current Russian elite. Because they have in mind the Soviet model still holds: the security zone between Western Europe and Russia. At the time it was a socialist country, like the sovereign, but dependent on Russia. And now you’re trying to recreate the same thing, and the world.

If Russia had enough money to provide the Montenegrin elites enough money there was, would probably have more of a split within elite circles. But it is clear that the Russian economic, social, political model unattractive. So we had to act to try non-violent coup. Naturally, this has backfired and only strengthened the roll of Montenegro to NATO. This is a General trend: the Baltic States have long departed toward Europe, Ukraine is only now beginning to move away. Well and, accordingly, the countries of former Yugoslavia too… Someone clearly moved towards the West as Slovenia, for example, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina. The last remained, in essence, Serbia.

The same Greece failed to draw into the sphere of influence of Russia, like Turkey, although that is not a European country. It is normal that political groups want to conduct their own, independent policy and solve their own problems. NATO allows to do it. But the Soviet model involves a definite subordination of Moscow. And pay for it obedience nothing.

— Can we expect from the Kremlin of trying to destabilize other countries in the region, the Balkan States do not have obvious prospects of a speedy entry into NATO and the EU? Is there any sense in such attempts now?

The question here is not even whether it makes sense — from my point of view, it makes no sense. In the same way as it makes no sense to put pressure on Ukraine. But nothing well no more! Because of Putin’s Vertikal is built on the primacy of force, it is able to establish power control, but can not develop these territories. She can take control of the territory — as it was in socialist times in Poland, Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Hungary, and many others — starts their gap from the neighbors, from those who, according to Soviet terminology, remained in the sphere of influence of the West, and, in fact, to preserve state sovereignty. Austria fared better than Hungary; West Germany better than East Germany; Finland — better than Karelia, which was annexed [to the USSR] in 1940.

This is a system lag obviously, but admit it is impossible. After all, it means that the model of Putin’s ineffective, unpopular with the population and regional elites. Therefore, it remains to spoil the lives of those who seceded from the Eastern bloc. In Ukraine, it is clearest to read.

Mode so arranged that he come to terms with this can not, and to present a positive competitive program is also not capable. It remains to destabilize, to avoid the feeling among Russian citizens that there is an alternative way of development. So, of course, expect any destabilizing actions. Thank God this is cheap propaganda and sabotage groups are pennies compared to what is called a serious investment. Such cheap methods in Putin’s pocket full. And to improve the situation, he can not. And in Russia can not. The last ten years is a waste of time. But yet due to propaganda stories about the “rise from knees” and “the machinations of the West” all this fails to deter. And the backlog, in fact, accumulate.

Very important would be, of course, the example of Ukraine. If Ukraine were able to show the same growth as Poland, for twenty years, it would be a very strong argument against the Putin regime. But there are two things. Firstly, Ukraine is still a post-Soviet country, so deeply affected by a tumor nomenclature capitalism and associated corruption. Therefore, it is very difficult to make a transparent and competitive economy with good growth potential, in the same Poland. And, secondly, of course, struggling will interfere. About Poland already forgotten, and Ukraine is the closest country to the mentality and history. If she shows a good example of growth, it will be very painful. I hope that it will happen, but it takes decades. Well, now (Russia is “Apostrophe”) struggled to slow down the development processes: the infiltration of subversive groups, to maintain the tension in the Donbass. It all hinders economic growth. So the strategy is clear. Also clear about what she and hopeless. But another it is not.

— During the St. Petersburg international economic forum was held interview of the President of Russia with the journalist of the American TV channel NBC Megyn Kelly. How Vladimir Putin held a conversation with her, looked like rudeness. Itself Kelly later in the interview claimed that behind the scenes the Russian leader behaved politely, and only the camera was sharp. So this rudeness for them, for Western people, or is it your Russian audience?

— For her, of course. Because now there is such a degradation scenario, rudeness is perceived as a sign of strength. Although this is actually certainly not true. The same America that works, so that appropriate image of the steel fist in a white glove. That is, if the state or some international player has the resources, it is not necessary to be rude in words, he behaves politely, but rather firmly holds its line. If there are no resources and you have to pretend you’re cool, you’re slipping into boorish terminology.

We have now all the media are full of the same attitude towards Ukraine: call “some”, “gastroenerology”, and it has become almost the norm. On Federal channels compete this rudeness. At least a significant part of people is perceived as such a manifestation of power. In actual fact, this is a sign of weakness. The failure to really influence the situation is replaced by a boy’s slang. It’s starting to irritate even those people who sympathize with Vladimir Putin. But it is the style, the same corridor into which they maneuvered themselves: they have to pretend to be the cool kids.

Of course, it is for internal use. Because the world outside just understands the difference between words and deeds. All this is reminiscent of North Korea, which once in two weeks pummeling the United States “sea of fire”.

— Can’t sidestep the attention of a major diplomatic row between the countries of the Persian Gulf: neighbors accused Qatar of financing terrorism and established a blockade, though, most likely, the reason in its relations with Iran. What this scandal could lead?

We see that the situation has turned quite tough. Qatar, in General, a very influential player, a lot of money — he’s third in the world in gas reserves. So what is it that billion dollars that he paid for members of his Royal family — such little money. And for Iran, which for the most part the money received and which is under sanctions. Qatar is thought that it will pass without problems. Well, got the problem. I think, not without a blessing from the trump, because it all started after his visit to Saudi Arabia.

From the Russian side, probably, again played the old Soviet conceptions of reality: if oil suddenly begins to fall, it is necessary to do a little something in Palestine or somewhere else in the middle East to disrupt oil supply to increase its price. It is still in the 70-80-ies was used in the Soviet Union as oil geopolitics. And now the same as in Moscow I think that if the instability affects oil monarchies of the Persian Gulf, it will increase the price of oil. This is very misleading, because the technology has changed, be possible to extract oil in Nigeria, and in Canada and in the United States — anywhere. But the aggravation in Qatar is joyfully received here as an excuse to raise oil prices. And the price take it and not go up one bit. International powers, apparently, have calculated risks and I don’t think it will be due to the global rise in oil prices.

The zone of instability is evident, and it is obvious that the deterioration will continue, because there are internal resources, the conflict between Sunnis and Shiites escalates over time.

— Why Western countries do not trigger pressure on Qatar as a country sponsoring terrorism? Although, of course, is not the only state that is suspected of funding terrorist organizations.

Simply because not everything can be controlled. USA can’t order Qatar or Saudi Arabia to do and not to do it. If they try to do it, this will involve too great cost to the United States. Trump called for a distancing of the US from world politics and refocus on internal Affairs. So seriously interfere in the conflict in the middle East the US is not very interested, including in Syria. To strike — Yes. To send troops there. Therefore, the United States also has limited resources. They are more concerned about the development of their economies, than the participation in all these local issues.

In the Soviet system of values, the US rule the world. Not quite: they do not want too deeply involved. Let them sort it out Saudi Arabia Qatar Saudi Arabia Syria — that’s their business. Actually, it is very correct. Because, for example, it is possible to overcome terrorism in Afghanistan? You can support the Central government — they support. The question is the price — it is very high.

If enhanced Iran, need to maintain its geopolitical opponents. In this case, Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is not a democratic and not the most sympathetic monarchy in the world. But Iran, from the US point of view, more dangerous. Because Saudi Arabia is not trying to build an atomic bomb and, therefore, not a threat to the Western world, and Iran is threatening. On this basis, the USA think it is right to support the Saudis in their fight with Iran. Although both countries are models of democracy in the Western sense of the word. Those and support those who can be called terrorists. Politics is so constituted that used sabotage and terrorist methods. And with that, and on the other hand work quite frostbitten are people who for the sake of their beliefs about Allah in Sunni or Shiite versions — ready to cut each other’s heads. To establish a peaceful life in the middle East is impossible, because there is a different value system, different priorities and political objectives.

In the UK for a short period of time staged several attacks. Do you think the intensity of terrorist attacks in Europe will continue to grow? What caused it?

I think the terrorist attacks will be something of a natural disasters. That is unavoidable, it should be ready, but that cannot be avoided. I would like to mention the degradation of the style of terrorist acts: even explosions can’t do because of security and are quite effective. But to detain three of the men who take knives and just cut people, even theoretically impossible. If it is a bomber who is on death previously trying to stab as many people as possible, then it is devilishly difficult.

When a person tries to make a bomb, he should at least buy the ingredients to attract specialists. This implies membership in the social network, which can be traced, which can be agents. That is, large-scale explosions can be prevented, and such actions almost individuals who buy a knife or take the car and hit the crowd as hard as in Russia to stop a madman who shot nine people due to the fact that it was suspected that he did not serve in the Marines.

I think the modern world is so constituted that there are a large number of people in the borderline mental condition, who are ready to act. And the specificity of religious terrorism is that are specially prepared to educate such people. To find such training centers to destroy them is quite difficult, but necessary. But I think still somehow the attacks will happen in Germany, then in France, England or Austria. This process is inevitable.