France: to win both candidates?

In order to understand the long and intense debates between marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron on Wednesday evening, did not have a good understanding of French: the candidate of the right-wing radicals have relied on numerous, often bitter and emotional attacks, while the candidate of the centrist answered mainly based on the facts counterattacks, sometimes a little arrogant.

There is some temptation to recall the three duel between Donald trump and Hillary Clinton last year, though Le Pen is more experienced and behaved more worthy than trump, but the macron is not as explicit representative of the traditional authority as Clinton.

Politically, trump and Le Pen are close to each other and represent the same protest white underclass and the middle class against globalization and immigration.

And macron, roughly speaking, says the same as Clinton: they are all against Le Pen and the tramp.

The same assess who looks best on TV. Clinton won all three of last year’s debate with trump, if you believe the so called experts and polls of public opinion after the show ended.

You can succeed for yourself

And now the same thing: in the battle with Le Pen tipped the victory to the Makron. The same can be said about all those who questioned the centres of studying of public opinion.

But the US experience also suggests that one should exercise caution in making too far-reaching conclusions in this matter.

Of course, Le Pen would have been better if the winner of the debates declared it, but the loser does not necessarily lose. As in the case with trump, it may still sound like ourselves lucky: in the debates and in the campaign in General.

Trump wanted a full mobilization of its major constituents and at the same time sought to put Clinton in such a negative light that it in the election day are unable to the same extent to mobilize their. And he did it

Attempts to attract the left voters

And such a strategy Le Pen. It demonizes the opponent, exposing his representative banks and the rich, a supporter of the “wild globalization”, “social atrocities” and “war of all against all”, the person defending the Euro and freedom of immigration.

Trump made several half-hearted attempts to win over voters from the left flank, namely, the supporters of Bernie Sanders, which is only a bit behind Clinton at the national Convention of the Democrats.

Le Pen acts more purposefully and decisively in their efforts to entice candidates who voted for the extreme left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon in the first round. And his rhetoric about social differences, globalization and the EU, she attracted many located on the left flank.

Himself Melenchon long kept silent about whom he will support in the second round. However, two days ago, he warned against the election of Le Pen, not suggesting, however, openly to vote for the Macron.

She wants to deprive voters of motivation

And again, for Le Pen is not only important to “take away” votes, but also demotivate those voters, which calculates the Makron. A socialist who on Sunday will prefer to couch the polling station because he or she believes that the macron is something quite inedible, in fact, would give half their vote Le Pen. Such is the logic.

Makron, of course, understand what happened in the US, and learned this lesson. Therefore, in the debate he attacked Le Pen, in particular, as the “true heir” right-wing extremists. The point of this was to interfere with her attempts to alleviate the most acute angles of his party, the front national. He wants thus to make a moderate right-wing voters make it harder to vote for it.

So, everything will be decided on Sunday. Judging by opinion polls, Emmanuel macron a clear favorite, this was Hillary Clinton in the U.S. last fall.

Become important figures

I don’t want to say that the outcome of the French elections is also unclear. The superiority of Macron much more 60% against 40% according to all the polls. Besides those in France conducts surveys of public opinion, guess with their numbers in the first round.

To marine Le Pen scored a sensational victory, need and unexpectedly low voter turnout, and major changes in the preferences of voters. It is difficult to imagine her victory, at least without some kind of major terrorist attack or something equally dramatic on the finish.

But if trump was at the election of one of the biggest parties of the USA, Le Pen is a radical party. And all that will be more than 40%, it can be regarded as a victory not only for himself, his party and the far right across Europe.