The Ukrainian economy more and more comes to life after the crisis. Exports of goods and services rose in the first quarter by 34% compared to the first quarter of 2016, according as the Ministry of economic development and trade, and civil service statistics. The main changes that our manufacturers not only pereorientirovanija on new markets, but also changing the range of sales: first place confidently holds the agribusiness and heavy industry, as before, and increases the share of exports of services. More than a third, or 36.4% of our deliveries now go to the EU, more than 16% in Asia and only 14% — in Russia (here the fall for the year almost doubled).
DUE TO WHAT. As we explained in the Ministry, the increase in exports was due to price increases in world markets for iron ore, metals and record sales of grain. Money have the largest increase in iron ore — $332 million, sunflower oil — $316 million, soybeans — $226 million and sheet hire — $190 million, the Ministry forecast that in the second quarter, export growth will continue. With it experts agree.
“The increase was primarily due to the production of the agricultural sector, says economist Ivan Nikitchenko. — On the one hand, domestic producers have learned to work better with European customers, more actively passed the certification for access to EU markets. On the other — is a favorable pricing environment as on agricultural products and metal. And since exports are measured in money, even in the absence of export growth in product quantity, in monetary terms, there would be growth.”
RESULTS AND FORECASTS. But while to speak about stable success and that the Ukrainian enterprises and the business regrouped and conquered the European market earlier, the Director of the economic and social programs Razumkov Center Basil yurchishin.
“You have to understand that everything happens on the background of a large drop in trade volumes that was Ukraine in the post-crisis period analyzes yurchishin. — Therefore, improvements that have a need to be treated cautiously. The second point: a couple of months or even a few blocks is not a term that can say that drastic changes have occurred. The structure of exports remains low competitive, polusyrevyh, and just as it was, we export mainly polusyrevyh or materials, or metals. The task to export wheat, and even flour, and spaghetti, not yet done. But well, that is reoriented, not only in the EU market and the markets of third countries”.
The President Ukranalittsentra Alexander Ohrimenko drew attention to the fact that among the trade partners of Ukraine first appeared on the third place India. This happened due to the increase in the food supply, not only of grain and sunflower oil, but also meat, canned. “But data on exports for April show that the rate of export decline, primarily metal and ore,” — says Okhrimenko.
Nikitchenko noted that the increase in sales abroad affected the rate of the national currency, the hryvnia in April and may, strengthened from 27 to 26 UAH/$ due to this period. “This allowed the NBU to increase international reserves that will help it better keep the exchange rate from sharp fluctuations in the second half,” he reassured the expert.
Services: transport and tailoring
Grew by 9% yoy and exports of services. Still more than half of them — transport, in the top three in exports of IT services and processing of raw materials. “Ukraine remains a major transit country for Russian energy to Europe, but due to the decrease in metal production, the decline in engineering, the blockade of the Donbas is already possible to predict the decrease in the second quarter of transit of goods by rail — analyzes Okhrimenko. — Will increase the volume of services in the IT sector and processing of raw materials, this refers to the manufacture of clothing from fabrics imported on tolling schemes, picking components for the European automotive industry. May be the growth of business services for foreign investors.”
Yurchishin also expects that the volume of highly services this year will increase: “we Have good schools, good IT professionals, but the industry is poorly supported by the state”. But the market of foreign Stroilov becoming less so as our workers leave Russia. Experts don’t see the growth of services in the tourism industry, repair and maintenance of equipment.