Where to stop the mad flow of revolutions, sensations, leaks and premature talk of impeachment? Before tramp — two scenario, and both are the Kremlin on hand.
“I don’t understand why they just do not realize it. Every day I open the newspaper and read exactly what I would like to see there members of the Russian government. I could just imagine how Putin is laughing with his intelligence people, commenting on the American liberal Newspapers are attacking trump for his ties with Moscow. Nothing is more profitable for them, it is impossible even to imagine.” So says the intellectual, a supporter of trump, who, to freely discuss the prospects of the presidential administration, prefers to remain anonymous.
It does not occupy government positions, but is in the range of people of different ranks and values that influence (or attempt to influence) the direction of White house policy. He is neither a loyalist nor an enthusiastic supporter of trump, but he supported him and gave him a voice, believing that his candidacy is preferable to Hillary Clinton. After four months in power and the many obstacles encountered on the way to the President, he still sees no sufficient reason to repent the choice.
The real problem, he argues, is that “this atmosphere of hysteria, the constant insults, revelations that never anything definitively does not result in a continuous stream of scandals, fueled by a national obsession with the expulsion of the President, are the most desirable scenario for Russia. I can’t say whether they have acted deliberately to achieve this result, and if so, they are much more deftly than we think”.
To understand the reasoning of our interlocutor, you need a brief distraction from the hectic flow of revelations, sensations, leaks and early requirements of impeachment, thereby extending the focus to see the broader scenario. Big picture, as the Americans say. There are only two ways a reasonable completion of the investigation (or investigations: in addition to which leads a special Prosecutor, Robert Mueller (Robert Mueller) conducted a separate independent investigation of Congress), the center of which was when trump with Russia.
The first option is a full admission of guilt. The feds can prove, beyond any reasonable doubt that team trump systematically coordinated their actions with the Kremlin, there was a constant exchange of information, and this Alliance was based on common goals and interests, bridging agents, machines, propaganda, Russian hackers, acting on behalf of the election campaign of the candidate and Vice versa. In short, it was an obvious Alliance between trump and Putin, organized at the highest level and implemented in order to, first, get rid of Hillary Clinton, and, secondly, to impose policies dictated by the interests of the Kremlin. So the final will inevitably lead to the expulsion of the trump and the collapse of his administration under the influence of incredibly serious allegations. If this is all true, this outcome is only a matter of time. Criticism of the President, seeking to evict him from the White house, as soon as possible to ensure that the control mechanisms of the democratic system work, and investigators can independently exercise their responsibilities. The appointment of a special Prosecutor, which all parties consider to be unbiased, and the consequences of the gap between trump and James Komi (James Comey) do not give reason to believe that the FBI today is acting on the orders of the President.
© AP Photo, J. Scott ApplewhiteДиректор of the FBI James Komi
The second scenario: the investigation detected signs of collusion are defined close to the Trump people who have had unacceptable and criminal relations with Russia, and may temporarily far from the circle of the President. Identified occasional contacts with figures of mid-level, parallel lines of communication, ways of influence, organized without the participation of the head of state, with no obvious mutually beneficial scheme, found the cash flow needed to lubricate the mechanisms, the imposition of position of questionable advisers and Russian intelligence services, which are always — regardless of trump’s ready and apt to influence Washington’s policy.
The investigation, however, does not prove that trump wanted to enter into any agreement with Putin and made this, it reveals the fact that some of his staff and entourage were involved in compromising relations with Moscow. Business results in numerous convictions and sentences, but without evidence of direct responsibility of the President. Grounds for impeachment — which, by the way, vote the House of representatives and two-thirds of the Senate, and he and the other body are in the hands of the Republicans, becoming more shaky, the administration comes under fire, but not destroyed completely. Trump remains in the saddle, despite a sharp decline in the level of confidence and doubts about its ability to control the most powerful government in the world.
The second scenario will confirm in court what is happening these days, weeks and months of constant accusations against the White house. The last dose of the charges stems from the fact that last summer, us intelligence listened as Russian agents discussing the people around the headquarters of the trump, with whom we could cooperate. Between the layout and printing of this article the focus will be a new, even more juicy details. We are faced with a kind of swamp which bogged down the policy and information, they hardly move due to accusations and counter-accusations, attacks, humiliations, tweets, memes, and never reach the final resolution. This is the new norm, typical of the era trump. We already exist in it and continue to exist, if the investigation will end with any arrests, seizure, changes in the White house need only to be cleansed of toxins, but no more.
You may receive third scenario, where the President is totally innocent, and the investigation will conclude that the whole thing was fabricated by the enemies of the trump, wishing to banish him from the White house, but the mass of evidence, of facts, not suspicions, and in some cases, concrete evidence of ties with Russia, makes this option highly unlikely. Thus, in the field of view remain the first two options, no middle ground, as always, minus those that Donald Rumsfeld (Donald Rumsfeld) would call “unknown ignorance”, that is, the facts, the ignorance of which we are not aware of. All the intermediate shades, which may take the case with all available today, elements, in essence, boil down to one of the presented alternatives.
Our close to Trump the interviewee said that the second outcome is better from the point of view of the Kremlin, not only because exile, trump will take his “friend”. “It is pointless to believe that Putin began his attack in order to take control of American democracy, driving a tramp, like a puppet. He’s not stupid enough to think that it is indeed possible. And even if she were able to control the President of the most powerful nation in the world, it would be impossible to capture all of the organs, which are in turn kept under control by the Executive. To put too high goals undermines their own hands own project of hegemony, because then there is the FBI, finds all the garbage, and everything collapses”.
The Kremlin wants to call American democracy status ailment, it works to escalate a constant anxiety, a kind of sea-sickness that prevents reasonable thought and move he arranges a short circuit in the systems of the enemy, conducting a low-intensity attack, using his weakness and internal division to cause maximum harm. Why he prefers this strategy to provide direct influence on the political system? “Because the goal of Putin — says our source — is not to corner Hillary and support trump, but to discredit Western liberal democracy, to show the world that this model is becoming obsolete. If we open any newspaper, or any source of information over the past few weeks, we have to admit that there is a temptation to recognize the victory of Russia. The investigation will show, whether they were thoughtful enough to interfere in our Affairs too deeply, not to be caught by the hand”.
The fact that someone has defined as “a syndrome of disequilibrium trump” — a kind of compulsive pathology, which drew the attention of critics of the President — is an effective proof of the weakening of democratic structures. Russia in this scheme was the catalyst that ignited a firecracker in a gunpowder warehouse foreign policy, already a highly polarized environment. A “select all mastimovie media and watching them the public opinion of behavior, which is in a constant frontal assault and full legitimization of the President, is exactly what Russia needs. Putin wants to see the country torn by disputes, devoid of logic, closed, occupied with its internal problems, which do not lead her anywhere. I am convinced that the columnists of the New York Times is the most favorite reading in the Kremlin,” explains our source.
Bob Woodward (Bob Woodward) in some ways takes a similar position. From the giant Watergate, one would expect support for colleagues proud, fiercely leading the investigation in search of a new scandal Nixon scale, but the veteran investigative journalism expresses cautious: “There are many people who consider a trump presidency as a kind of test, as if this is a temporary measure. However, it is likely that he will retain his presidential post for a full term, that is, for four years, and possibly more. We are faced with hyperventilation: too many people write too much. When it comes to the impeachment, how long will the President whether he will stand up to summer and so on… I worry for our profession, understanding of the profession, all this arrogance is seen not only supporters of the trump. I think you can do both: to conduct a painstaking investigation, not to leave anything unattended, and at the same time to understand that it is not our task to turn it all into editorial.”
© AFP 2017, Derek R. HenkleАкция protest in Chicago
Woodward says openly that the atmosphere — into the hands of the enemies of America, but he certainly does not consider this stage of the accusations point, reflecting the functioning of democracy and its watchdogs from the government. He does not call to continue to dig furiously. Rather, he offers to take a deep breath, to practice his profession without making any mysterious accents, typical of those who feel a calling to change the course of history.
All of these hypothetical constructions destroyed (of course), if it is proved by direct and systematic collusion in the presence of irrefutable evidence. If confirmed another possibility, there would be a serious scandal that will not affect directly the President: many people forget that the administration is able long to withstand the turbulent state. George Bush Junior was sitting firmly in the White house, even when it was opened by a special investigation Valerie Plame (Valerie Plame), a CIA agent, where personal data have been disclosed of retaliation against her husband, the diplomat who testified that in the arsenals of Saddam Hussein did not have weapons of mass destruction. Led the investigation of the most severe Prosecutor, which only could find, Pat Fitzgerald (Pat Fitzgerald), and the head of the office of the Vice President Scooter Libby (Scooter Libby) was sentenced to 30 months in prison for crimes not of the second plan: perjury, perjury, perverting the course of justice. This gave rise to great scandal, but Bush and his administration have managed to stay in the saddle. I must say that at that time in the offices, but also in many intelligence agencies, expressed such a negative attitude to the President that it would be difficult to imagine that it was even worse.
The procedure of impeachment, in fact, used only two times in American history, and in none of these two cases it is not ended with the removal of the President. When Nixon was forced to resign, over it faced grave charges, supported by evidence, gathered over several years. The President has gone as a result of the blitzkrieg. “It is clear that they find out, says our source. But it is much more realistic to imagine an administration that will stand at least four years, but will move, limping, constant strikes, paralyzing the political process and at the same time does not lead to the expulsion of the trump.” Limping gait of a wounded animal is the most welcome sight for the Kremlin, the phenomenon of generating an unwanted Union between the most militant sectors antithrombosis press and Putin, anti-liberal prophet postzapadnoy the world.