If you think that one day, sitting behind the wheel of a Hyundai or Kia, will be able to observe on the screen of your mobile phone brand Samsung or LG the war in Korea as a science fiction film, loosely based on the invasion of Iraq in 2003, don’t forget, it’s all Korean products. And if war breaks out in Korea, it will affect these companies.
If you use an iPhone, too, do not relax, because, although American, many of his parts are made in South Korea, and the apparatus is assembled in China, which is indirectly affected by the conflict. The same can be said if you sit behind the wheel of a Renault. This factory owns a 43.4% stake in Japanese carmaker Nissan, and the last 15% of Renault shares. And if war breaks out between the two Koreas, then it is possible that Japan will get their portion missiles.
The consequences of the conflict between the United States and South Korea, on the one hand, and North Korea, on the other it is impossible to estimate. The participants can be two nuclear powers: the first and eleventh economy in the world (South Korea’s GDP equal to Russia). Directly or indirectly, the conflict will affect the second and third world economies — China and Japan — and the country has the largest nuclear Arsenal, that is Russia. This will be the largest war with conventional weapons after the Second world war.
As a political observer thinks The Atlantic magazine Steven Clemons (Steven Clemons), “if there will be a strike on North Korea, it should be noted that thus were sentenced to death a quarter of a million people in South Korea”.
“Air strike on Syria was ‘kind of bombing’. With North Korea it will not work, because it has much more sophisticated technology,” explains Clemons. Air force, Navy and a large part of the land forces of the DPRK will be amazed by the shock troops of the U.S. and South Korea. Therefore, Pyongyang set their hopes on nuclear, chemical and biological weapons, the infiltration of subversive groups, and heavy shelling. His goal is not to win but to damage his enemies, so they decided not to get involved in the conflict.
Ten thousand North Korean guns aimed at Seoul
North Korea has at its disposal about ten thousand guns, more than half of them deployed on the border and aimed to the South, or to be more precise, the Seoul with its ten million population. This artillery “has the ability to cause serious damage to Seoul, and 28 thousand American troops stationed in this city,” explains Eric Altbach (Eric Altbach), Vice-President of consultancy Albright Stonebridge Group (ASG) and a former member of the Council of national security of the United States. “The Minister of defense in the Administration of George Bush, Donald Rumsfeld (Donald Rumsfeld) these troops moved from the border to Seoul, in order to protect them from the effects of the shelling,” added Clemons.
© REUTERS KCNA/ via REUTERSСеверокорейский leader Kim Jong UN inspects defense detachment
From a strategic point of view, this barbaric shelling will not bring tangible results, even if accompanied with actions of subversive groups that use weapons of mass destruction. The DPRK will be able to keep the initiative at most four days, said the U.S. retired General James marks (James Marks).
Others believe that the threat is exaggerated. “The United States has for many years used for flights in the airspace of North Korea, helicopters are invisible, so they are well aware of what is happening in this country, at least on the border,” said EL MUNDO, a famous journalist, Pulitzer prize winner Seymour Hersh (Seymour Hersh). But Pyongyang has missiles of distant radius of action, which can fly to Japan and GUAM (one of the Islands of the Marianas archipelago, which was previously a Spanish colony, but now belongs to the United States). GUAM is one of the world’s largest air bases Andersen (Andersen).
Missiles with chemical or biological warhead?
The question is if missiles to targets or destroyed during the flight, or they will be destroyed by the missile defense systems of the United States. But there is another question even more disturbing. What kind of warheads they will be equipped with: conventional, chemical, biological or nuclear? “Given that North Korea has the ability to strike at South Korea and Japan, many experts are inclined to think that a military solution is unlikely,” concludes Altbach.
© REUTERS KCNA/via REUTERS the Soldiers of the Korean people’s army welcomed North Korean leader Kim Jong-UN
This fact suggests that the Korean war is unlikely, but it also is the reason that over time the conflict escalates. “The problem with North Korea similar to the one that was with Iran until an agreement was reached on the nuclear program of the country. If you do not take action now, what combat capabilities will have the DPRK in a year or two?”, — said Clemons.
Now let’s assume that the war has already begun. The DPRK destroyed part of Seoul, attacked Japan, and possibly GUAM, and China ceased to provide her any help. Its artillery is suppressed. Began a counteroffensive. With logistical support from Japan part of the armies of the United States and South Korea enter the territory of the DPRK.
This phase of the war is also not going to be easy. “North Korea is a big problem. There is not flat terrain, as in Iraq, and some solid mountains,” says a prominent American military expert. The regime of Kim Jong-UN is building his defense on the retention of two objects: hydroelectric Nampo and the country’s capital of Pyongyang. To calculate the time required us-South Korean contingent to take both objects, it is impossible, because this operation needs to proceed in parallel with control centers, launch rockets, stockpiles of chemical, biological and nuclear weapons of the DPRK. According to Pentagon estimates, performing only this task will require 46 days and the participation of 90 thousand American servicemen.
Meanwhile, at least 200 thousand troops, the DPRK will prepare for a guerrilla war, although there is a strong likelihood that by this time in the event China would intervene under the pretext of conducting humanitarian operations and create a neutral zone to prevent the US and South Korea to its borders. So the war is over. And there will be another truce.