“There was not and there is no power that can defeat our people”, — said Russian President Vladimir Putin on may 9 in the square of the Kremlin during a military parade. On the one hand his statement was consistent with his “Imperial” or “great” spirit, on the other hand, sounded from defensive positions. Putin is not talking about victories, and States that they can not be beat. That is, Putin’s speech either in the political or in the subconscious implication is defensive in nature.
It is especially interesting sounds in the background of the visit of the foreign Minister of the Russian Federation Sergey Lavrov in the United States, the 10th of may, where he held a meeting with the President of the United States Donald trump. Before the visit of Lavrov and Putin it sounds like he wants to stop before his society in brave, not surrendering and not losing the image, if sensing or knowing the current stage of Russian-American relations from the Russian society is perceived as a retreat.
The fact that the President and his policies formed a new and contradictory situation, which is manifested in the internal and external aspects.
Russia has serious economic problems that not only aggravate the social situation, but also the fight between the branches of government for diminishing resources. Informal the speaker of these internal moods and relationship Zhirinovsky said that Putin could not put his candidacy in 2018, as the “dozen” which shall decide on the presidential candidates is not yet final decisions regarding Putin.
Zhirinovsky did not say who these ten people making the decision, but it is possible that “ten” through him, trying to probe the public mood, the reactions of different segments of the population on the possible non or not to nominate a candidate for the candidacy of Putin.
Recent Russian polls show that in the case of extension, he will receive 75 percent of the vote or more. However, operating in Russia and independent from the government “Levada-the centre” have declared that this is invented data, and valid according to the poll, Putin’s rating barely reaches 40 percent and the holding of free elections will he even concede the opposition candidate Navalny.
In this case, the issue is that the government can not make Putin President. The question is that Russia cannot afford to have an illegitimate President. It is “genetically” associated with the “Russian spirit” phenomenon. Another question is how Russian society is formed, which is composed of legitimacy. But illegitimate President can’t manage the Russian and Russia.
Accordingly, the task is not to obtain the necessary sociological data or the results of the election, and then manage to control the situation. Because the life of the illegitimate President in Russia will inevitably end with either “regicide” or revolution, or both. For example, the problem of Yeltsin was in poor health, namely a lack of legitimacy, and surrendering the government, he saved his life.
Now facing the same problem turned out to Putin and “a dozen”, though it is definitely more healthy than Yeltsin.
Moreover, in addition to domestic economic problems, the situation seems to have changed in the sphere of foreign policy. The administration of new US President Donald trump was not the Russian Agency, and Vice versa.
The administration of the tramp took a few steps, which fundamentally changed the situation, or in other words, essentially turned the situation back.
After the Ukrainian crisis in the world has changed “center of power”, one who uses force. If the US used force that could solve the issue of preservation of world order within the various regions through the application of military capabilities of the United States, beginning in 2013-14-ies, it became the centre of Russia. Putin became the center of the decisive questions even by using military force. In this position, he especially strengthened after practice this was not followed answer democratic administration. Moreover, the impression that the administration in all possible ways avoiding having to respond to Putin’s face it, content with only economic sanctions.
Trump changed the situation and quite specific steps returns the situation back.
Trump administration or a new Republican administration did not succumb to “blackmail” or “bluff”, had hoped that Putin and justified under the democratic administration.
Causing in Syria, the attack on Assad, but in reality, in Moscow, trump raised the issue directly — either Moscow with us or against us.
Putin does not have the necessary resources to select the option “against”, in order not to make such a choice it is enough of pragmatism, and even government thinking. He obviously chose the option that agreed with trump.
In the framework of the so-called common sense, is realistic and right choices, but the perception differs significantly from the great-circles of Russian society, which since the days of abundance of petrodollars supported Putin himself and brought to almost the maximum historic peak in the years of good luck “blackmail” and “bluff”.
Consequently, it is very difficult to change things, which is why the Day of Victory, he tried to gently make it clear to Russian society — not that we give up.
It is not excluded that Putin is hoping to win time, unless of course, the new us administration will give him this time. At least the wheel of the foreign policy of this administration is gaining momentum, restoring the international situation has shifted from the axis that corresponds to the natural balance of forces.
It is possible that if Putin will not have time to save their life and control of Russia or it “ten” decides that he has to go. Especially when you consider that is the question of saving billions.
If this is the situation, Putin’s position was based on what will go or not go Assad, on present trends, it is not excluded that Putin may go before Assad is still in the Wake of the so-called luck, in the form of the President of Moldova Igor Dodon. Dodon was the only foreign high-ranking official at the red Square during a Victory day, perhaps as the last of Putin’s victory.