Macron and Ukraine

As predicted (sociologists, political experts) it is a young and charismatic politician, Emmanuel macron. As for predictions, it is fair to note that back in February I even heard from experts, that this is not the election Rules, he could shoot only in the next election. But the crisis of the current political elites in France, the socialists, the scandal Francois Fillon (the candidate of the center-right), gave the chance to Him and he perfectly used.

Already before the first round he was among the top favorites, and when I came out in the second round, all the polls gave him the edge over marine Le Pen is not less than 20%. And not because Makron be super popular, but because in the second round the majority of the French were going to vote against Le Pen, which saw a greater evil and greater risks. Yes, after Brexit and the presidential elections in the United States there were fears that the vote may be surprising, for example, due to the low turnout of opponents of the radical populist nationalism of Le Pen. But the unpleasant surprise did not happen, the predictions were confirmed. Europe and Ukraine breathed a sigh of relief. Of all the favorites of the presidential elections in France, the macron was the only one who criticized Putin, and in this sense he was an acceptable candidate for the presidency of France in comparison with other candidates, especially in contrast to Le Pen.

In Ukraine, of course, everyone who is interested in politics, concerned about the change of French foreign policy, especially toward Russia and our country. With high probability we can say that there. Changes if they were, the stylistic and tactical. Macron during the election campaign showed himself a consistent supporter of European values and European unity, preservation of the Franco-German tandem in European politics. According to various reports and expert estimates, he said it sincerely, and this policy will hold the post of the President of France. Hence, perhaps, the tandem of Germany and France will continue to operate in the Normandy format talks on settling the conflict in the Donbass. Merkel is the more experienced politician than the macron, besides Germany and played a leading role in these negotiations. Let’s also consider that for Macron, as for French foreign policy in General, Ukraine has not been and will not be one of the main priorities. So do not expect that the macron is Pro-Ukrainian politician. But he likely will not be anti-Ukrainian politician. For us it is much more important that he be a supporter of European unity and a common European policy that meets our interests.

Likewise, do not expect that macron will become anti-Russian President and supporter of the international isolation of Putin. Criticality and distrust of Putin, he will, but he will negotiate with the President of the Russian Federation in exactly the same way as does Angela Merkel. This will push the objective economic interests and long-standing historical ties of France with Russia, and strong Pro-Russian lobby in France. But Putin will be forced to build more or less constructive relationship with Macron.

It is important to keep relations with France, even if the President was not his candidate. But at the same time, both Putin and Lavrov certainly will not deny myself the pleasure of lightly trolling new French colleagues (and the Macron, and the future Minister for foreign Affairs of France), to sneer at their inexperience or dependence on a “senior comrades”. And it may not like the new French leaders. Therefore, at least at the start of the presidency of the Macron, his relationship with Putin will be rather cool and alert.

In conclusion, another factor of influence of the victory of the Macron to Ukraine. In Ukrainian political coterie there is the question: “will there be Ukrainian Makron?” But this topic deserves a separate and more detailed discussion.