On April 26, the anniversary of the Chernobyl disaster, Alexander Lukashenko and Petro Poroshenko, strongly energetically promoting bilateral positive. Talked about the unbreakable friendship of their peoples, and emphasized that nobody can divide and split. The Belarusian leader recalled that “isn’t far from here, between Kiev and Chernihiv, and buried the roots of my ancestors.”
Major Paphos meeting of presidents (first in Chernobyl, and then on the territory of Belarus, in the residence “Lyaskovichi”) a surprising contrast to the dark, negative tone of Lukashenka and Belarusian propaganda on the Ukrainian theme in the previous weeks.
If Ukraine appeared in the context of horror stories about “resistance” (the words of Lukashenko) militants, who allegedly recruited the extremist spirit and experience from its southern neighbors.
Phantoms of the official Belarusian propaganda
So, in a sensational statement of the Belarusian leader as of March 21, about the capture of dozens of militants (de facto then began the arrests in the case of the “White Legion”) was that their camps were, in particular, in Ukraine.
Ukrainian trail was exaggerated and propaganda films of the Belarusian state television — “call a friend”, “White Legion of black souls.”
For example, bloated story with the breakthrough of a certain jeep with a gun across the border from Ukraine. The promoters have agreed to the fact that he compared the situation on the border before the freedom Day on March 25 of this year with that which was on the eve of 22 June 1941.
It would seem that such an intense subversive activity from neighboring areas had to at least cause a move of the Belarusian foreign Ministry: what are you, dear neighbors, podlyanki build the blue-eyed country? Demand an end to, explanations, etc., and relations with Kiev, logically, should have been marred, contacts at the highest level — freeze to the showdown.
However, the ominous picture quickly began to wither and crumble. In particular, the Ukrainian border service has proved that from them a jeep to drive us couldn’t. Was it all a hoax?
In any case, by the competent Belarusian authorities and to this day remain silent about the journalistic questions, what happened to the jeep, where he is detained passengers, what is the fate instituted on the occasion of the criminal case.
In the Ukrainian foreign Ministry, apparently, was very surprised with the statements about the presence on their territory for training camps for the Belarusian fighters. Hot on the heels of press Secretary of the Agency Marian Betz delicately noted: “We can say beforehand that such statements, in our opinion, do not correspond to reality”. And added that “Russia is actually training camps for mercenaries and fighters in the occupied territory of Ukraine”.
Surprised, it seems, and the security Service of Ukraine. Asked our Belarusian colleagues to explain what they were referring to their President, speaking about the existence in Ukraine of camps for militants. What was (if any) response we do not know.
Interestingly, the evening of 23 March, immediately after the scandalous passages about Ukraine, Lukashenko spoke with Poroshenko by phone. Moreover, the press service of the Belarusian President reported on the conversation in a completely positive way — “heads of States agreed to intensify bilateral political dialogue at all levels” and all that. In a similar spirit gave the message and press service Poroshenko.
In short, the jeep camps and fighters — no GU-GU. So whether “the boys”?
Kiev is forced to accept the overtures of Minsk to Moscow
Anyway, it’s a no brainer that official Kiev, there is no reason to conduct subversive activities against the Belarusian regime.
The Ukrainian leadership appreciates the position occupied Minsk in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict (not supported aggression, did not join economic sanctions against Moscow, Kiev).
Of course, the neutrality is not necessary to speak. In March 2014 Belarus voted against the UN resolution on the territorial integrity of Ukraine, in December 2016 — against the resolution on human rights in Crimea. But, though you wince, but take these steps (has little influence on the real situation) without excessive emotion — as a minimum a symbolic tribute to the Minsk harsh Eastern ally.
But on the other scale is an even more important promise Lukashenko that the Belarusian territory will not be a blow to Ukraine (read: not miss the Russian troops). Today in Chernobyl about it openly Poroshenko said: “I emphasize, got a firm assurance from the President of Belarus. No one will be able to involve Belarus in the war against Ukraine.”
It is significant that the Ukrainian trace in the horror stories about the militants preparing de the bloody events in Belarus, did not appear immediately. Initially, Lukashenko and state-run media vaguely hinted at Moscow’s hand in the protests “parasites”.
And in this time continued oil and gas conflict with Russia. But then, it seems the Kremlin, the signal was received that a possible compromise. And figures of the Belarusian regime immediately switched version — began to assert that the attempts to blow up the situation in the country there are some forces and structures in the Ukraine, Lithuania, Poland…
Moreover, these legends such as anti-Ukrainian and anti-Western conceptual matrix of the Russian special services and Russian propaganda.
The Belarusian regime will try to maneuver and continue
Poroshenko is an experienced politician and therefore probably a pragmatic separates the wheat from the chaff in relations with Minsk. Heck, with this sneer, the economy (and safety) is incomparably more important. And for both sides.
Ukraine, in particular, gets us to a critically large volumes of gasoline and diesel fuel. And it gave some Moscow politicians a reason to blame Lukashenko for the fact that its local go “tanks of the punitive.” But whatever said and Belarus, as announced today after talks Poroshenko, will increase the supply of oil products to Ukraine. Business, nothing personal.
In 2016 in terms of turnover and exports, Ukraine ranked the second place among the trade partners of Belarus. Moreover, the trade turnover last year grew by 10.5%, Belarusian exports — by 13.2%, the positive balance amounted to almost $ 1.9 billion.
In the first months of this year, as noted today by the President, the trade turnover has grown by as much as 40%. Yeah, it’s hard to find another foreign area in which Belarus would have looked just as successfully in the current crisis.
“Belarus is ready to increase deliveries to Ukraine of automotive and agricultural machinery, fertilizers and building materials. In turn, we are interested in procurement of metal products, production of crops and livestock,” — said Lukashenko on the outcome of today’s talks. We talked about the creation of new joint ventures.
So both political and economic interests will force Minsk to continue close contact with Kiev, no matter how irritated someone in Moscow is “yakshanie with the Bandera regime”.
In fact it is one of the elements of the geopolitical maneuvering of the leadership of Belarus, which is not very desirable, in the words of Lukashenka to fly on one wing. That is, be in excessive dependence on Russia.
Repression against the organizers and activists of the street protests of February — March and the recent agreement Lukashenko and Vladimir Putin do not supersede the needs of Minsk in this maneuvering. Here are well aware that the reconciliation with Moscow shaky and does not provide the desired dividends.
Another thing is that the repressive disruption and the fear of reforms crippled the possibility of a multi-vector foreign policy, threaten a stronger tie Belarus to Russia, to strengthen the same inclination to one side.