The national Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has made a forecast of the cost of imported gas. For several years, thousand cubic meters of gas will rise from 247,7 to 292 dollars. The price of foreign gas affects the rate and for ordinary Ukrainians. In the Memorandum with the IMF, the Ukrainian government has made a commitment to keep tariffs at the level of import parity. The website “Today” to find out why you may increase in price of gas for Ukrainians.
Why the gas can rise
The current gas tariff for the population – 6879 hryvnia per thousand cubic meters. As explained by the head of the Supervisory Board of “Naftogaz” Yulia Kovaliv, the rate is formed according to the following formula: cost of imported gas × dollar exchange rate + VAT + transport + distribution margin.
The price of gas as a commodity (excluding the cost of transportation, distribution, and margin) is 6078,66 hryvnia ($185 * 26,7 (estimated hryvnia exchange rate) + 20% VAT). The Ministry of economic development in the summer of 2016 is assumed that the rate of the national currency this year is 26.7 hryvnia. However, the budget for 2017 laid down the course of 27.2 hryvnia per dollar, and the cost of gas – at the level of 245 dollars.
If you count the cost of gas as a commodity based on the updated indicators, a thousand cubic meters will cost about eight thousand hryvnia. And given the margins and the cost of transportation and distribution – about nine thousand hryvnias per thousand cubic meters, which is about 30% more expensive.
In 2018 natural gas imports, according to the forecast, the NBU will cost RUB 273.3 dollars per thousand cubic meters, and the dollar will reach 29,95 hryvnia. As a result, the Ukrainians will have to pay for blue fuel for almost 11 thousand hryvnia.
Last year the Ministry of economy assumed: if the imported gas will be too expensive or the exchange rate of hryvnia “fall”, the officials will consider the possibility to buy gas in Russia. “We have another backlash if the dollar will rise or European gas will be more expensive than $ 185 per thousand cubic meters. Is “Gazprom”, – said a senior official of the Cabinet after the decision on increase in gas tariff from 3600 to 6900 UAH per thousand cubic meters.
At the moment, and in “Naftogaz”, and the Cabinet say: buy the blue fuel from Russia is not going to. If the price of gas not to revise, economists say, the government will have to subsidize “Naftogaz”.
The government will not increase the tariff due to political considerations, explains the head of the Supervisory Council of the Institute of energy strategies Yuri Korolchuk. In addition, after the price hike the Cabinet would have to allocate more funds for the payment of subsidies.
“Indeed, we are tied to the import price, but on the other hand, we see manual control from the government. Actually the price should have been revised to 10-11 thousand UAH per thousand cubic meters”, – said Yuri Korolchuk.
What the government will do
The price of gas in Ukraine will be reviewed twice a year, according to government resolution No. 90 of February 21. Before the first of April until the first of October. The revision of the tariff will take into account the monthly average gas prices in the German hub NCG (per semester) taking into account transportation costs to the Ukrainian border and the entrance to the CTA in terms of the official rate of the NBU, as well as tariffs for transportation, distribution, and margin of “Naftogaz”.
If you find that the price of delivered natural gas imports more than ten percent from the current rate, the cost of natural gas will increase. This commitment of the Ukrainian government also took the Memorandum with the IMF. For this purpose, as stated in the document introduced a temporary mechanism for automatic correction.
The Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman said – the reasons for the increase in the cost of gas at the moment. “No increase in the prices of natural gas for the population will not. I will not allow any raise of gas tariffs for the population’s needs. And those who claim a possible price increase by 40%, needs or responsible work, or to write the application on dismissal”, – said in February the Prime Minister.
Recall that the main consumer of gas in Ukraine – the population. The vast majority of apartment buildings require heat modernization. In fact, the Ukrainians not only heat their homes and apartments, and streets. Due to the non-insulated walls, leaky Windows, basements, roofs annually “lost” nine billion cubic meters of gas. This is more than a year, mined all Ukrainian private companies. This amount of gas costs Ukraine $ 2.2 billion (a thousand cubic meters of imported gas this year is $ 245, said the country’s budget).
What else might appreciate
Gas tariff sets the Cabinet on other utilities – national Commission carrying out regulation in the sphere of energy and utilities (NKREKU). A few weeks ago, the head of the national Commission Dmitry Vovk in the broadcast of a television said the rate of heating depends 90% on the cost of gas. “If we talk about the centralized heating – we can influence 10% of the fare. 90% of the rate is natural gas, which is determined by decision of the government,” – said Vovk. In proportion to gas will also rise hot water and heating.
Tariffs for heating and hot water expect providers after these calculations passed the national Commission, which adopted the final decision on increase of tariffs.
Also in 2017, as stated in the presentation NKREKU, on average, for Ukrainians, the cold water will rise by 9%. Kyivvodokanal plans to raise the rate of 16.4%, the largest rise in prices is planned in the “Zhytomyrvodokanal” – 18.2%. At the same time in the southern water will rise by only 6.2%.
As explained in the Commission, businesses must submit applications to establish new tariffs up to August 10. After that NKREKU new tariffs approved.