Whether trump will attack North Korea?

While this side of US hatched the idea of the resolution of the Korean problem by military means, and demonstrate 18 weapons — aircraft carriers, nuclear attack submarines, cruisers and torpedo boats, loaded to the brim with missiles, fighter jets, drones and chemical protection troops on the other side, the DPRK held a solemn military parade in honor of the 105th anniversary of Kim Il sung, which is also struggling to boast the heritage of the army. Bringing troops to combat readiness forces people to constantly indulge in fantasies and to exist in a world of illusions and fear.

A new round of tensions on the Korean Peninsula began in February of this year. After winning trump’s elections, North Korean leader Kim Jong UN took a wait and see attitude in the hope that trump would fulfill the promise of the election campaign: trump will give him a call, they meet, eat a hamburger and decide all disputes. However, a month later, as President, February 2, trump sent the U.S. Secretary of defense James Mattis in South Korea. Despite the fact that Mattis did not make any loud statements that the trip to Seoul was almost not connected with the DPRK, it is quite possible to consider as the action of the United States, aimed at strengthening relations with its allies in the Asia Pacific region.

February 12, Kim Jong-UN seems to have finally stopped waiting for a call and a hamburger from trump and after more than three months of silence has tested a ballistic missile “polar star”, which caused another round of confrontation between the USA and the Republic of Korea. February 17, U.S. Secretary of state Rex Tillerson, getting off the plane, immediately went to the demilitarized zone (DMZ) between North and South Korea. After lunch with the officers and soldiers of the American army, he again glanced at DMZ. In Seoul, he said that the era of “strategic patience” of the United States against the DPRK has reached the limit. To force North Korea to abandon nuclear weapons, the U.S. is considering “various options”, including military force. The above position is considered part of the policy of trump. In addition to preserving allied relations with South Korea will also be pressure on North Korea that will lead to the change of the political course of the country and not for war. Meanwhile, the United States and the Republic of Korea continue to conduct large-scale joint military exercises in South Korea.

The last thread of hope was cut short in February after the assassination in Malaysia notorious Korean. United States invited a delegation from the DPRK to come on March 1 in new York for a formal dialogue with the American side. However, in the end, the United States refused the Korean delegation a visa, and the dialogue stopped and started. The DPRK has finally lost patience waiting for improvement of relations with America at the trump. This time in a fierce confrontation between the U.S. and North Korea should pay attention not only to existed for a long time differences between countries, but two important details.

First, North Korea still lives in the feeling of almost complete victory in the confrontation with the United States after the Korean war. If you look at some of the direct conflicts that happened honey, the DPRK and the U.S. for more than 60 years, we find that the DPRK almost never lost. In 1968, Korea seized the U.S. intelligence ship “Pueblo”. This ship is still in North Korea and is used as a Museum. In 1969, the Korean people’s army with one blow brought down a us spy plane EC-121. In 1976, due to the fact that the us army destroyed the trees in the demilitarized zone between the Korean and American soldiers, there was a bloody incident, in which two American officers were hacked to death. Also killed four American and five Korean soldiers. In 1994, Korea shot down a us helicopter OH-58, caught in its airspace. According to the DPRK in every such clash, she was victorious. USA also once sent four of its aircraft carrier in northeast Asia, but to truly overcome the DPRK failed.

Another reason for the escalation of the new crisis on the Korean Peninsula is the new President of the United States. Since the arrival of trump in the White house less than three months, however, he has already twice used military force, striking at Syria and Afghanistan and forced to tremble with fear other countries in the region. Resorting to arms, trump can say, killed several birds with one stone. First, he is a little focus has shifted from constant internal political disputes. Due to the serious foreign policy step he could turn the political pressure in another direction. Second, he established its credibility in the international arena. As during the election campaign, trump said that after coming to power, he must “adopt authority”. Thirdly, the beats performed the function of deterrence and demonstrate its strength. After all, running on Syria under the pretext of Assad use of chemical weapons, cruise missiles and “mother of all bombs” explosive aerial bomb may in the future be used against the DPRK.
When compared with the “strategic patience” Obama, trump’s current policy towards the DPRK returns to the old path of pressure and force to change. The United States hopes that political pressure, diplomatic isolation, economic sanctions, backed by increasing military action will ultimately be able to crush the political power of the DPRK. At this time, the DPRK always retains equanimity and conducts the largest in the history of the military parade, exposing a lot of weapons. Obviously, this is not a simple military parade. Kim Jong-UN wants to tell US that, faced with a military threat, North Korea is in any case will not compromise.

From the point of view of military Affairs administration trump has already demonstrated the intent to preempt. Whether it’s special forces, missiles or warships, as soon as we receive an order, the US army immediately took a defensive position and strike at the DPRK. The style of trump, does not consider the opinions of others, forcing Japan and South Korea do not feel safe.

At the moment there are at least two reasons why trump is hesitating. First, the UN security Council can’t pass a resolution allowing the US or any country to attack another sovereign state. Second, North Korea could inflict massive retaliation, which in the first place will be seriously affected South Korea.

After the strike on the DPRK trump may be considered as “showing determination”, he can mitigate the political struggle and establish the credibility in the international arena. But is he ready to pay such a high price, and let South Korea and Japan to fight America alone. On these issues Trump should seriously think and only then make a final decision.