The fate of the government, the outcome of his work does not depend

On Friday, April 14, the government of Vladimir Groisman is celebrating its first anniversary. From now on, the Cabinet becomes vulnerable — expired immunity, and that means that the government at any time may be dismissed by the Verkhovna Rada. However, it is not seem upset Groisman and his team. She demonstrate enviable optimism. Or rather, the belief that now in Parliament there is no power to declare a vote of no confidence in the government.

Without a lot of experience

In the appointment of Prime Minister Vladimir Groisman promised MPs to show how to govern. He never banged his Shoe on the podium Nikita Khrushchev, but was set up no less menacing. However, in most cases, further words business did not go. How much would the Prime Minister kept saying his favorite word “reform”, this is sweeter than the Ukrainians did not.

To understand why Groisman failed to show their unique method of governance, it is necessary to recall the career of the current Prime Minister. Until February 2014 he was the mayor of Vinnitsa, then half a year worked as Deputy Prime Minister in the government of Arseniy Yatsenyuk and a half years chaired the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. Experience in managing large enterprises or ministries he had not, and therefore show how to lead the country, Groisman simply could not.

The current Prime Minister is proud of raising the minimum wage to 3200 UAH (about 110 Euro), the reformation of the system of subsidies Ukrainians and plans for pension reform. Actually, all of this is routine work for any other head of government. But not Groisman. For him it’s a matter of pride, about which he endlessly willing to talk, avoiding talking about what really needs reform the Ukrainian economy.

There are levers, there are no results

The current Prime Minister has big ambitions, but unfortunately, no opportunities to realize them. Reasons to something different. One of them is the dependence on the main political player. His career Groysman should be grateful Petro Poroshenko. Without him we would never see in Kyiv Volodymyr Groysman.

However, showing determination and autonomy in addressing social issues — for example, about double increase of the minimum wage, Vladimir Borisovich sometimes forgets that the presidential faction recommended him for the post of Prime Minister that due to Poroshenko, he made a quick career in Ukrainian politics. But the President also quickly it can be completed.

A year in the Premiership Volodymyr Groysman learned to say the right things about social justice, decent pensions and the welfare of Ukrainians, from which emanates the banal populism. The Prime Minister can now compete in rhetoric with Oleg Lyashko or with Yulia Tymoshenko. Only, unlike them, he is the head of government.

It has real levers of influence on decision making. In Parliament there is a majority which appointed Groysman as Prime Minister. There is support for the President, who through faction controls a third of the Parliament. It seems that it prevents only one thing — the ceiling of its capabilities.

The government as a bargaining chip

Over the past year, Volodymyr Groysman has changed quite a bit. In rhetoric he became more confident and peremptory. As a political sparring partner he has chosen Yulia Tymoshenko. He called the mother of Ukrainian corruption. Groisman sincerely wants to be one of the country’s political leaders.

The question of his nomination for the presidency of Ukraine today is probably ridiculous. Vladimir Borisovich jokes. Say, in 2019 presidential elections he will go, but as an ordinary voter. But this does not mean that in 2024 it will not run. It all depends on the political situation in the country.

And yet the future of the current government of Ukraine and its Chairman, depends on the political plans of President Poroshenko. It is not excluded that this autumn or next spring, the Cabinet of Ministers headed by Volodymyr Groysman can turn into a bargaining chip in the big game of the President with the Ukrainian oligarchs. To be or not to be the government, not directly depend on the results of his work.