Terrorism in recent weeks, returned to Russia. 3 April for the first time there was a terrorist attack in the European city, St. Petersburg. Residents always thought they were safe, so thought the inhabitants of Western Europe before the terrorist attacks in Paris, Brussels, Berlin. “We in St. Petersburg are accustomed to feeling that they live in security,” wrote a few days ago, publicist Tatyana hruleva.
The current situation is a threat not only scares citizens. President Vladimir Putin is concerned. Because next year it needs to be re-elected. And even if the loss of power is extremely unlikely, it needs to instill a sense of security to its citizens, but also foreign investors and visitors before upcoming major economic and sporting events. It will take a lot of money — money which is now the Russian state does not. Only one world Cup will cost the country nearly 640 billion rubles.
© AP Photo, Pavel GlolovkinЧасы countdown to the start of the world Cup 2018 in Moscow
“In the past terrorist acts in Russian cities were committed by rebels from the North Caucasus, with well-known motifs, a clear sender and the relatively easily traceable social ties,” says Nabi Abdullaev, head of the Moscow office of the international consulting company for risk management Control Risks. Now the country is faced with an entirely new threat.
The alleged terrorist Akbarjon Jalilov — from Kyrgyzstan. From this country originally and many other suspected terrorists, who recently was detained by Russian security forces. “In contrast to militants from the North Caucasus, these people were most likely radicalized by promoting jihadism, and not regional problems”, — said Abdullayev.
This is confirmed by Scott Bolton, an expert on terrorism international insurance broker Aon. And he believes that the terrorist organization “Islamic state” (banned in Russia — approx. ed.), encouraging various groups to commit terrorist acts. The problem is that the so-called low-tech attacks such as in London, nice, Berlin and Stockholm when the weapons used trucks or cars, much more difficult to prevent.
“On the one hand, the reason is that criminals may not be available at the special services the lists of dangerous individuals. it is Also more difficult to restrict access of vehicles. Even for those who have previously come to the attention,” says Bolton. Every populous city is a potential target of the attack. Major events such as the football world Cup, it is hard to protect. “And the cost to make the place safe, become higher.”
The Russian economy is gradually recovering
But this poses a problem for Putin. The national budget for security for 2017 is 1852 billion rubles. In 2013, a year before the Olympic games in Sochi, with a budget of $ 2029 billion rubles. During the economic crisis of 2014 caused by falling oil prices, the Treasury was empty, which led to the rapid depreciation of the national currency. And yet more than two years the recession in the country left behind, starts a small rise. Forecasts for the current year ranged from one to two percent growth. Recently, the Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov said that the budget deficit in 2017 will amount to 3.2, and only 2% of GDP, that is 1,89 trillion rubles.
In the previous year the deficit amounted to 1,967 trillion — 3.5% of GDP. To patch holes in the budget, Russia can take advantage of the reserve Fund, as the total national debt is still relatively low. According to the Russian audit chamber, it is 11.16 trillion rudders of 12.9% of GDP.
The budgeted oil price to $ 40. Now a barrel costs $ 55. At a price of 60 dollars, the budget would be aligned. About 37% of the budget accounted for oil exports.
A new group of response must be fast and cheap
Despite some improvements in the financial sector, the government is trying to first take steps that do not require cost. So, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev instructed to create a special Department in the Ministry responsible for transport security, including the rapid response team. It should be equipped with special tools, to be mobile and to be ready for operation at any time of the day to respond to training or the implementation of “illegal actions”. But these organized groups must be owners and operators of underground facilities and adjacent areas.
The head of the FSB Alexander Bortnikov said a week after the terrorist attack in St. Petersburg that the operational work is not fully consistent with the terrorist threat. It sounds like self-criticism, and may indicate that the Kremlin is dissatisfied with the work, as the newspaper “Vedomosti”. Still an alleged terrorist for the last 16 years had Russian citizenship, had been in Turkey and probably in Syria and was deported from Turkey to Russia.
© RIA Novosti, Victoria Viatris | go to fotobanka in the subway in Saint Petersburg
According to Bortnikov, a range of terrorist groups are CIS citizens arriving in Russia in the flow of work migrants. He suggested to strengthen control of the borders and tighter control of individuals and companies who work with migrants or provide them with housing.
As in St. Petersburg have a number of major international events security measures on the borders have already been tightened. At the SPIEF, to be held in June and is the most important event of the Russian economy with hundreds of guests of the highest level from all over the world, should be involved, including surveillance technology and face recognition.
Because of the increased danger that visitors are not coming?
Even more of a headache to the authorities delivers the world championship on football of 2018. Does Russia need to fear that — in addition to the political accusations — because of security reasons from a trip to Russia will be foreign fans? It would be the second defeat Putin after the Olympic games in Sochi.
The Russian football Union is now preparing recommendations on security measures for holding of the confederations Cup 2017 and world Cup 2018, said Vladimir Markin, the head of the RFU Committee on security, the newspaper “RBC”. FIFA has already recorded in the minutes that he fully trusts the Russian state authorities. Over security measures at the eleven objects of the world championship work from the moment of approval of the application for the competition.
Russia remains realistic. “Metro is a special kind of transport in Moscow and St. Petersburg metro is used by millions of passengers,” — said Sergey Goncharov, the President of the Association of veterans antiterrorist unit “Alfa”. “No intelligence Agency in the world can guarantee that the terrorists there will be denied access.” Expert Bolton adheres to similar opinion: “Today it is much easier to predict the likelihood of a hurricane in some other place than the probability of a terrorist act”.