For Vladimir Putin’s Syria has been an endless gift. Implemented in 2015 military invasion has returned Russia to its important place in world diplomacy — the return, awesome for the country, who spent two decades in poverty and the universal contempt on the margins of world negotiations. On the home front the war had become a new support for Putin’s prestige after the euphoria of the annexation of Crimea undermined problems with the economy, caused by low oil prices and sanctions. In the middle East, Russia has managed to demonstrate how the allies, and rivals that it can once again send its power as effectively as did the Soviet Union. And in Europe caused by the refugee crisis shook the EU when the Union has agreed sanctions against Moscow, and strengthened the position of fighting against immigration and Brussels parties the Kremlin supports in France, Hungary, the Netherlands and Italy. There is another wave of refugees could permanently split the EU. As George Soros (George Soros) wrote this Monday in the Guardian, “the easiest way to avoid falling for the Putin regime to bring down the EU first.”
Thus, until last week the situation in Syria was Russia’s win-win. The continuation of the war would sow further chaos in Europe and Russia manage to achieve peace, it would have led to further growth of its influence, and it would be important for Putin strategic victory.
And then went not so two things: Assad has gone too far, and trump changed his views. These events are connected. The fact that Assad’s forces used sarin gas in a rebel-held town of Khan Sheyhun still not set for sure. However, if this is indeed the responsible generals of al-Assad, as implying the growing evidence of the UN, apparently they made a mistake and believed Donald Trump’s word for it. They did not expect that the American President himself declared isolationist, to intervene in the Syrian conflict, whatever crime they did not commit.
Assad was not the only one for whom it was a surprise (albeit relative — the US has warned Russia over 90 minutes before kick according to established four years ago, the Protocol, and apparently, the Russian command immediately notify the Syrians). The Kremlin was shocked too. The Russian political elite have convinced themselves that the election trump lead to the Golden age of laissez-faire. “We are satisfied with America minding his own business”, — said the Deputy of the state Duma Vyacheslav Nikonov after the inauguration of the trump. Some Russian politicians dreamed that trump and Putin agreed about the big deal that will allow Moscow to do what she pleases in the Ukraine and middle Russia abroad in exchange for Putin’s help in Syria and Iran.
However, after this week trump bombed air bases of the regime, Syria has suddenly ceased to be useful for Russia and has turned into a dangerous problem. If she had previously served as a universal diplomatic tools, the effects of the us RAID in Syria threaten a number of vital Russian interests. First, America and the UK are discussing the introduction of new and more comprehensive sanctions as punishment for supporting Assad Moscow — when the Kremlin is expected to split the unity among the Europeans in the extension of the sanctions for the annexation of Crimea. Second, the RAID marked the beginning of the split in the barely existing relationship between trump and Putin, which Putin laid and probably still has high hopes.
And that was Russia’s most serious strike, cruise missiles, usmivka last week in the heavens, said a silent coup in the White House. Isolationist Stephen Bannon (Steve Bannon) — hard admirer of conservatism Putin and follower of the beloved philosopher-Eurasian Alexander Dugin the Kremlin — lost his place in the Council of national security of the United States, whereas many of the new heads of intelligence and generals trump’s aggressive attitude towards Russia. Even the Minister of foreign Affairs Rex Tillerson (Rex Tillerson), who ran the Affairs of the American oil giant Exxon, has not yet become its CEO and has maintained a close relationship with Putin ally Igor Sechin, has unequivocally condemned the defense of Assad by Moscow at the G7 meeting. In General, the trump turned out to be anything but just not friendly to the Kremlin, but because of the accusations of meddling in the U.S. election of any ties with Russia became for Washington politicians threat.
Actually, Putin was not too worried about Assad; Russia has no really significant interests in Syria. The so-called “naval base” in Tartus Russia in fact is a 300-yard UTL Marina with a gas station and a garrison of 30 people. Syria is important to the Kremlin rather as a symbol, a place where Putin had his own red line and finally gave the world back.
After two decades of Western intrusion, which began in Belgrade and Kosovo and ended arranged the US (according to the Kremlin) the Arab Spring and the change of power in Ukraine, Russia has finally opposed the US monopoly on military invasion and regime change. Intervention in Syria has become a model of opportunism Putin — regional war, which did not want to understand Obama, has become a stage on which the Kremlin was able to demonstrate military might, to accumulate diplomatic capital to feed its population with news of military victories. And all this at the cost of placing a single squad of 35 or so aircraft.
The problem of Moscow that the war is easier to get involved than to get out of it. Moscow’s relations with the tramp and the future of sanctions for Putin’s have much more importance than the future of the Assad regime. However, the rules are Pottery Barn (furniture store, approx. transl.) — who is broke, he pays. Although Syria no longer brings political benefits Putin has no easy way out of conflict without losing face. Moreover, it becomes apparent that Russia cannot manage even charges her with Assad, who, apparently, has violated the agreement on the surrender of chemical weapons, which is so proudly made Russia in 2013.
The situation on the front line is also nearing a critical turn. Air power in Russia was the decisive factor in the fall of Aleppo is under pressure from Assad’s forces — but unfortunately, Moscow and Damascus, the rebels are reluctant to give up. More importantly, U.S.-backed and led by Kurdish rebels are likely to take by storm Raqqa, where ISIL has strengthened (banned in Russia as a terrorist organization — approx. ed.). When Rakka — and then lying in neighboring Iraq Mosul — fall, and the vast territory in Syria will be under the control of the Union to the Americans and hostile to the Assad forces protected American aviation. From the outset it was clear that Assad will not be able to win a decisive victory in this war, but after the American RAID, again incited against it the balance of power, even the conclusion of a peace Treaty on it (and Russian) looks less likely. The Syrian war, Putin became so prestigious that slips out of control.
