A cunning captain

The Chairman of the people’s Republic of China XI Jinping in recent days demonstrates the visionary art of political maneuvering in a complex global environment. The renewed confrontation between Washington and Moscow over the Kremlin’s support of Bashar al-Assad at a military base which the U.S. armed forces suddenly for the first time launched a missile attack. Hot debate in the UN security Council on this topic. A personal visit of the Chinese leader to Florida for Donald Trump, earlier, during his election campaign, brusilovskogo to Beijing thunder and lightning. Finally, the voltage due to the threat of a major war on the Korean Peninsula. Each of the conflict situations, XI has managed to use with the maximum benefit for China, and for myself.

Armed conflict the United States and the DPRK, contrary to expectations, has not yet begun. In the capital of North Korea on 15 April held a large military parade on the occasion of the 105th anniversary of the birth of Kim Il sung, which was first shown samples of the new Intercontinental ballistic missiles. It is apparent that this demonstration not possible new nuclear test, and was the “big memorable event” to which Pyongyang warned foreign journalists.

However, the official North Korean news Agency today, declared that “war hysteria trump’s administration has reached a dangerous phase” and the President of the United States trump at the same time in an interview with Fox Business Network said that in North Korea the “strategic patience” has been exhausted. Earlier official representatives of China made a statement that, in their opinion, the conflict on the Korean Peninsula “could erupt at any moment.” Beijing also said that from April 17 suspends all flights to North Korea.

April 11, Donald trump wrote on his Twitter account: “North Korea looking for trouble. If China is willing to help us, that would be great. If not — will solve this problem without it!” Then, after talking with the head of China XI Jinping on the phone, said the same: “China will communicate with the DPRK in the right way. Or we’ll do it ourselves”.

Even before trump tweeted that during the talks in Washington and Florida, he explained to Chinese President XI Jinping that the terms of a future major trade agreement with the United States for Beijing will be much better if he would undertake the solution of the problem of North Korea.

Who will win during this meeting the US President and the head of China? Is this what the representative of Beijing in the UN security Council during the vote on the proposed by Western countries draft resolution on Syria, contrary to expectations, abstained and did not support Moscow? On farsighted positions of the state and personally of President XI Jinping in international issues relating to Syria, North Korea, Russia and the United States, says political analyst-sinologist, Carnegie’s Alexander Gabuev.

— China’s decision to abstain in the recent vote on the draft resolution of the UN security Council on Syria, proposed by Washington, London and Paris, is a huge victory of US President Donald trump. As they say in the White house. And how to look at it in Beijing?

Abstention from voting is a sensible tactic of Beijing, when there is a conflict, and its interests are not directly affected, but on different sides of the barricades are very important for China’s partners. On the one hand, the United States is — the most important is still the power in the world, the largest trading partner. XI Jinping just struck there first visit and his investment in the relationship with Donald trump is China is very important, including from a political point of view. On the other side — Russia, a very important partner in the field of security. XI Jinping, as he says, a very good relationship with Russian leader Vladimir Putin, who also “can not hurt”. What to do? China is the easiest way to take a position an abstention. Of course, each of the parties will interpret China’s actions as a victory, and the Beijing in this case pragmatically and predictably prefers anywhere especially not to twitch, knowing that the Russian resolution will still block.

— In the Russian media I’ve seen headlines and articles, which stated that “China has betrayed Russia” during this discussion and vote at a meeting of the UN security Council.

These arguments are naive, because if you take, for example, is much more important for Russia events in Ukraine, China also never criticized Russia for the annexation of the Crimea, never directly criticized Russian actions in the Donbass, but, on the other hand, never called Crimea as Russian territory and did not support the Donbas separatists and the Russian troops who are fighting on their side. It is very predictable Chinese behavior that should not be taken too emotionally. Russia is much more important Chinese practical steps on “the Ukrainian direction”. For example, the recent supply of electrical cables, which has allowed Moscow to establish a bridge to link Crimea with the mainland Russia, thus minimizing the consequences of Ukraine’s energy blockade. Obviously, this pragmatism of Beijing, the Russian leadership appreciates much more than any declarative statements.

© REUTERS, Carlos Maggipinto USA Donald trump and Chinese President XI Jinping

— And how to perceive Chinese leaders in General, the current Russian-American aggravation?

The situation is very volatile, and of course, China will not do hasty conclusions. In Beijing will be pragmatic enough to observe the development of the situation, which is still far from certain. In similar previous conflicts China believed that, in General, the confrontation between Russia and the United States in the middle East, is in the Chinese interests. Because the US is bogged down in “middle Eastern swamp” and do not have the resources nor the military, nor the resources to the attention of the President and senior management, to something else. In the end, the day has only 24 hours, a week has seven days, and Donald Trump and members of his Cabinet have something to do in addition to foreign policy! “Middle Eastern swamp”, of course, diverts attention from Asia and allowing China to do what it wants in the South China sea against the ASEAN countries in the East China sea, against Japan. So is China on hand. If Russia and USA fight, then China, to use the metaphor of Henry Kissinger with the triangle, is located in the best corner. It is a country which still has the best relationship with two other vertices than they are among themselves.

All the recent events only prove that China really skillfully maneuvering, this is a very advantageous position. What China is, of course, is afraid it’s some sort of active, kinetic clash, which may have quite unpredictable consequences. If the case is limited to a local crisis, it is good for Beijing. But that, unfortunately, may not be limited to, considering their mutual asymmetric attacks on, say, cyber and infrastructure of the United States and Russia, the stock exchange and so on. These are things that can be devastating for the world economy, i.e. China. China, of course, analyses such scenarios, but until he comes to the conclusion that after all the adequate number of people in the Kremlin and the White house ensures that the most awful scenario will not be realized.

— Still let’s talk about the fears of China, and of a variety of “swamps”. Tensions on the Korean Peninsula is growing, and is now one of the main problems that may occur in the region, and, consequently, in relations between Beijing and Washington. Here is what the scenario most feared by the Chinese leadership? And which option they would be most satisfied with?

© AP Photo, Mark SchiefelbeinПредседатель of China XI Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin

— The Chinese leadership certainly feared that Donald trump may not know the true military-political situation on the Korean Peninsula and not really understand the consequences of rash military decisions. That trump, inspired by the apparent success of his lightning strike Tomahawks at the Syrian military base, where he punished the dictator Assad for using chemical weapons against poor children, similarly, decides to spend some “red line” on the Korean Peninsula. Judging by all reports, North Korea is indeed preparing for another nuclear test, which. If it’s not organized today, on the 105th birthday of Kim Il sung, can be performed on April 25, during the anniversary of the formation of the Korean people’s army.

When President trump is sending a mighty Armada, in his own words, he seems to be from the point of view of “containment” relies on the fact that North Korean leaders are afraid more than anything to blow up or run will not. That, most likely, will not happen! And when deterrence will be ineffective, there is a very big question: what will do then trump? This scenario is the unpredictable behavior of the United States in Beijing are very concerned, because in Washington, in their opinion, do not understand that North Korea is not Syria. It is a fortified area with a huge number of bunkers, and lightning-fast preemptive strike on North Korea, which would have eliminated the objects of its nuclear program, U.S. cause just not. A previous US administration was looking at military options — and refused, because of the precariousness and insecurity result.

Secondly, a large Metropolitan area of Seoul, capital of South Korea, located literally on the border with North Korea, under the gun of North Korean artillery. To retaliate for this city, located in South Korea or American bases located in Japan American troops to Pyongyang, unfortunately, there is no difficulty. So now, XI Jinping, obviously, is conducting “psychotherapy and personal diplomacy”. He, when he spoke with trump on the phone, apparently, very long explained to him his vision of the situation. And, judging by the first reviews of the trump, the US President is inclined to listen to it.

In addition, China is actively trying to show that it takes all measures in order to help the US to rein in Pyongyang. It sanctions more actively observe, and so sent back the vessels with Korean charcoal in order to fulfill the UN resolution. I think that China is now guided by two factors. First, now that Trump is really very important to show the world that he was able to convince the Chinese to cooperate, and they actively play along with him. And second, China itself is terribly angry at North Korea for the rocket launch, and that they give a reason to the Americans to place missile defenses in South Korea, and, of course, for the murder of Kim Jong-Nam. Actually, it is very possible, China and myself have been going to use the most stringent ways to send Pyongyang a signal of its displeasure. In this case, Beijing was able to “sell” these measures that he is already going to apply, and Donald Trump — as a result of his “tremendous political skills”. And it’s very clever and very similar to the classic pragmatic and visionary approach of Chinese diplomacy.

Himself, XI Jinping, in General, apparently, was pleased with his recent communication with the President of the United States Donald trump in Florida. As a psychological type, he is surprised to have to look at any drastic steps trump, his image of “cool cowboy”?

Yes, XI Jinping, its antipode, and, of course, unlike trump, si has a much more solid strategy. You can speak about what some of the things that XI Jinping is trying to do, or unrealistic, or that empty slogans like his policy of “silk way”. However, of course, XI Jinping have an understanding of what China wants to achieve in the long term as he is going to achieve, what are the necessary conditions for this, what are the necessary relations with the US and what to do to ensure that these conditions for China to create.

Of course, the summit in Florida was hit! In fact, he prevented the greatest risk of a slide towards a trade war with the United States. Si helped Trump to save face and to pretend that his stunning talent negotiation allegedly helped convince China to go to any market concessions. Look, trump has refused to consider China a “currency manipulator”! Trump says that while no a 45% tariff to products from the Chinese economy in the USA will not be introduced. And trump says nothing about the revision policy of “one China” to which he actively hinted even in the winter. That is, in General, XI Jinping, its minimum program, and perhaps even program MIDI fulfilled.

Autumn will be very important for XI Jinping’s 19 th Congress of the CPC. Communication si trump was the Chinese leader, and winning from the point of view of internal Chinese policy, now at home, he can submit the results of its communication with trump as proof that he is a very effective statesman, a visionary diplomat, even with such difficult “colleague,” the ocean may agree. And that, of course, in the raging waters of the current global situation, where there are plenty of strong, dangerous and ambitious “pirates”, and Narendra modi of India and Shinzo Abe of Japan, and Vladimir Putin in Russia, and now the “unpredictable” Donald trump in the US — the Chinese ship the “economic miracle” called China Incorporated. comrade XI get lost, and it will be swamped. Therefore, XI Jinping, of course, all the recent events this is a very very great gift! — said Alexander Gabuev.