The madness of Pyongyang is not so crazy

The reaction of the North Korean regime has not kept itself waiting long. At the end of last week, the President of the United States Donald trump sent toward the Korean Peninsula the aircraft carrier “USS Carl Vinson” and several cruisers and destroyers. Earlier in the week was followed by a belligerent verbal attack from Pyongyang.

The country “will take severe retaliatory measures against provocateurs”, declared the North Korean foreign Ministry. And “bring to justice the United States for the disastrous consequences of their outrageous actions.” State news Agency KCNA angrily stated that North Korea “is ready to any elected US type of war.”

As crazy as it may sound these threats, the North Korean dictator Kim Jong — UN is not crazy. On the contrary, Kim needs most likely to convey that at any moment he is ready to launch a nuclear strike first. The only way it works the principle of intimidation, with which he wants to defend his family by the Communist regime from overthrow from the outside.

So it probably won’t stop at a sharp verbal attacks. On the occasion of the 105 birthday of the late founder of the state and “eternal President” Kim Il-sung, the grandfather of the current ruler of North Korea could have next Sunday to conduct another nuclear test. South Korean military experts have made over several days appropriate arrangements.

Once again thus young Kim is showing tactical skill of a politician, which is carefully considering each step. Or, as formulated by the Japanese expert on North Korea the National Institute for policy studies (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies) Narushige Michishita (Narushige Michishita), “Kim, in principle, takes rational decisions.”

Already his father and predecessor Kim Jong-Il knew in the battle using traditional weapons, the North Korean army will not last long. Although, with more than a million soldiers, it is one of the largest armies in the world. But her air force are considered to be technically obsolete. Even without US support the South Korean army is much superior to her.

Already at the senior Kim Asian country started working on nuclear missile program. Young Kim over the last five years of his reign, did markedly accelerate its development. In 2006, there were five nuclear tests, two of which occurred during his tenure. But the biggest progress is observed primarily in the development of missile technology.

Currently, the leadership in Pyongyang is intensively working on long-range missiles that could deliver nuclear warheads to the West coast of the United States. American intelligence agencies believe that less than two years, Pyongyang will be able to develop a nuclear warhead. Then a little North Korea will eventually rise to nuclear power and will be a specific threat to major world powers.

Beijing also opposes nuclear armament of North Korea

Close to the government circles in China recently, there are voices that urge the conflicting sides to soften. They believe that Pyongyang is not going to attack the United States. A nuclear war the country will not be able to survive. Even the North Korean attack against the South of the Peninsula or Japan they consider it unlikely. To a greater extent the development of nuclear weapons is for self-defense. From Kim before the eyes there have been examples of former dictator Saddam Hussein in Iraq and Muammar Gaddafi in Libya, they say. Only nuclear weapons guarantee him that he will not be deposed at any time USA.

© REUTERS KCNA/via Reuters/File PhotoСеверокорейский leader Kim Jong-UN in Pyongyang during the military trials

In fact, the Kim regime isolated from the world and can no longer rely on the same protection of China. The Chinese supported regime and economically when the UN has long imposed sanctions over North Korean missile and nuclear programs. Beijing justified the exclusion that otherwise is completely isolated and impoverished country, people will starve.

But Beijing also opposes nuclear armament of North Korea and has supported all the recent decisions of the UN security Council that condemned Pyongyang. And now it applied sanctions: China stopped the supply of coal from neighbouring countries and struggling hard with the trading vessels which attempt to violate the import ban. Satellite images show that at the end of the week the North Korean merchant ships were permitted to unload in Chinese ports and fully loaded, they had to go back. Coal was previously one of the main sources of income for North Korea.

China does not want American troops on its border

The Chinese leadership, of course, still does not want the complete collapse of North Korea: too great a fear that American troops can then be on the Chinese border. Therefore, the Chinese leadership continue to fully turn on Kim Jong-UN. In such a complex situation in Beijing is currently.

The likely true purpose of the North Korean dictator, perhaps much less ambitious than it seems, involves a Japanese expert on North Korea Michishita. Many people yet completely isolated countries suffer from poverty brought by decades of mismanagement and international sanctions. Michishita believes that Kim seeks with a potential nuclear threat to make the supply of food and other assistance. “Kim just wants the United States back to the negotiating table”.

Direct negotiation instead of intimidation

During the election campaign Donald trump promised to start direct talks with the Kim regime. Now trump is betting on intimidation and, at first glance, the redeployment of the fleet could exacerbate the situation on the Korean Peninsula. But perhaps direct negotiations still take place.

To excite, to attract attention, but not too much so as not to cause too sharp a response is consistent with the logic of Kim. This approach is probably most famous and Donald Trump. They may be able to find a common language.