For Syria there are only three terrible script

In missile attack, to realize that the Syrian airfield in Sirat ordered the American President Donald trump, soothes, strictly speaking, the fact that there is no expert who would know what this military operation.

Whether it was an impulsive action is extremely emotional, and the Supreme commander my grandfather, whose pictures of dead from suffocation Syrian children so upset that he decided on retaliation? Or 59 missiles “Tomahawk” was a prelude to more serious activity in the United States in Syria? That is exactly what trump back in 2013 warned his predecessor Barack Obama.

Then the attack would be the first sign as unexpected as radical change of strategy, which is contrary to everything that Donald trump is still talking about Syria and about his ideas about America’s role in the world.

Trump sits today in the White house, not least because he again and again kept popular with his countrymen the idea that the wars that the US since 2001 are in the middle East was “a big disaster” and have made a significant contribution to the spread of terrorism ISIS (an organization banned in Russia — approx. translation.). Until the day before yesterday trump was, it seems, is ready to hand over Assad and Syria the Russians and the Iranians that there is quite snug. For trump seemed important only to fight against ISIL — and, therefore, he considered the Russians, and thereby indirectly and Assad as partners.

Ill-conceived military order

Us Secretary of state Rex Tillerson (Rex Tillerson) has given to understand that Assad’s fate must be decided by the Syrians. It was, on the one hand, a departure from Obama’s statement that Assad must go. On the other hand, it sounded like a friendly agreement with the Russian cynical attitude to this conflict. Because if it refers to the right of peoples to self-determination. In Syria, however this does not work. It is all about one Assad. And the people — those who under a dictator under the guise of destroying the Russian with weapons of mass destruction.

Now there is little evidence that political magician Donald trump fully thought through the consequences of their military order about the operation in Syria. However, he will soon have to do it. Because this blow trump established facts that are changing the strategic initial situation and identifies the scope for future actions.

Gentle spring in relations with Russia? It seems that it is already frozen. And this is trump on the background of suspicions in the big sympathy to Putin at the present time might even be able to use in domestic politics, but that’s another topic. The question is, what is he going to do in Syria.

What if Assad will continue to use poison gas? Follow any of these new us missiles? And whether or not the present moral justification of American foreign policy, which trump announced in his remarkable speech on Thursday evening after the order to attack, in fact, only in the case of the use by Assad of chemical weapons?

Barrel bombs are still allowed?

How terrible would the pictures from Khan Sheyhun, they cannot explain why the use of poison gas is punishable as a crime, while dropping barrel bombs, obviously, is considered the “right things”. If trump in the future be limited to those that would sporadically beat Assad hand missiles “Tomahawk”, it will not lessen the suffering of Syrian children.

If it will further involve the United States in this conflict, it is the risk of an open confrontation with the Russians, as a precaution, just reinforce the Syrian air defense. Mostly insurmountable contradiction in Syria that has paralyzed Obama, Thursday, nothing has changed. For Syria is still not expected any decision. Just a terrible scenario.

Option 1: stand supported by Russia and Iran, the Assad regime, which in the medium term threatens Israel.

Option 2: use a military operation to eliminate the Assad regime, then in the best case to keep the losing country such as Libya in which frolic opposing the Islamists.

In a worst case scenario option 3: attempt to implement option 2 leads to an armed clash with Russia.

When trump and his newly elected security Council will complete their mental exercises, they may be again where it has been, namely: to recognize that the least worst option is to refrain from participating in the conflict. On Wednesday, Rex Tillerson flying to Moscow. One can only hope that he has at least one good idea, and that he will meet in the Kremlin understanding.