The fire and smoke of the Russian revolution

Who does not know that Putin, Ivanov and Medvedev were and are exceptional and sacrosanct Trinity, all these years, he knows nothing about “kremlinology”, a mysterious science, which is obsessed with Western analysts.

The meetings, which were held simultaneously a week ago in more than hundred cities in Russia, of course, was not seriously shaken the position of Vladimir Putin. The number of citizens who participated in protests that did not exceed 60 thousand. However, in two major cities, Moscow and St. Petersburg, which are considered the “capitals of the opposition” on the streets and squares hardly came out of ten thousand people. It is worth Recalling that at the demonstration against the former Russian President Boris Yeltsin in the years out of hundreds of thousands of angry, disenfranchised and hungry citizens, and the ratings mostly did not exceed ten percent. However, Yeltsin stayed in power for a decade. However, the protests on 26 March, which was organized by the presidential candidate of the opposition Alexei Navalny, should be viewed as an extremely complex political phenomenon. This time it was supported not only by forces from abroad, but, apparently, someone influential local circles. And yet, as it seems, in these in many countries the protests a lot more smoke than genuine revolutionary fire.

Ambiguous “the Prosecutor”

Formally Navalny and his organization the Fund of struggle against corruption convened the protests to speak out against the theft in the higher power state. The object of their criticism was Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, who for years subjected to attacks by the different groups of interests of Russia. And not all of them are in opposition to Putin. The immediate reason for the protests is the film Bulk “you do not Dimon,” in which, posing in front of bookshelves with three yellow ducks, the author expresses a number of serious accusations against Medvedev. In addition, the Prime Minister precede of corruption, personal enrichment, abuse of their position. Seem villas and palaces in different regions of Russia, which allegedly belong to him, as vast estates in the Crimea and Italy. According to Navalny, the money for the purchase and maintenance of all of this, Medvedev has received, primarily, from Russian oligarchs. One of them is Alisher Usmanov, the man who oversees major deals in the mining industry, ferrous metallurgy and energy.

Interestingly, Medvedev blames Navalny, who was twice sentenced to probation for the corruption and theft in especially large sizes. This makes it not only an ambiguous “accuser” and controversial future candidate in the presidential race of 2018, in which he would have had to compete with Putin. Given its extremely high rating, which, despite the economic crisis, does not show downward trend, it is clear that the Bulk can not expect to win in March next year. This is confirmed (yet) a modest number of participants of protest rallies. Taking into account the exceptional “production” of it, it can be assumed that Bulk though and has positioned itself in recent years as opposition leader, but has the support of some secret allies, and his work has hidden motives…

A storm in the Western media caused the arrest of about 500 members of Russian protests, however, we must remember that arrested them, primarily because the rallies were unauthorized. The police were obliged to intervene and detain the organizers, and all those who resisted and did not want to leave. Among them, of course, was our hero Navalny, who was sentenced to 15 days imprisonment. Soon from the West came the reaction and accusations of the Kremlin in connection with arrests and violation of human rights, however, criticized Moscow to those countries which themselves apply the same standards, in particular the Netherlands and Germany. Recently banned there, and then broke up rallies of ethnic Turks on the eve of the referendum Erdogan in their homeland. Or recently eaten in London, where police detained hundreds of people, and the local media announced their ultra-right, and so the problem with “human rights” has been resolved. Nobody cares about the rights of Nazis, but if they are not from Ukraine.

When Moscow said that Navalny and his supporters — the same extremists who call for the violation of the constitutional order and to the revolution, the West claims that the Kremlin needs to show “restraint”, give them candy and drink tea. It is especially interesting that the Bulk and structure to attract its share of very young people, literally children. The authorities did not miss the opportunity to accuse Navalny that he promised young people: in the event of police detention, the European court of human rights will render a decision according to which the Russian government will pay them from ten to one hundred thousand euros. In social networks, the opposition leader also urged activists to act more aggressively and even provoke the police to arrest. The present submission.

We know the story of “the youngest participant of the protest” — a 12-year-old Gleb Tokmakova from the city of Tomsk, which called for “changes in the Constitution and the Criminal code.” After Gleb had said that it “pushed to the microphone”, but the cameras recorded the violent indignation of those present, when Hleb said that “no matter who is in power — Putin and Navalny, if the system does not change”. Child, likely unintentionally or by childish naivete, encroached on the sacred! How can there be no matter who is in power, the corrupt Putin or fearless fighter against corruption Navalny.

Permutation major figures

However, apparently, small Hleb touched the essence. The anger of the Russian people due to the fall in the standard of living inflated by the movies, and accusations, such as those that apply to Medvedev. On the one hand, people who barely have enough for food and utilities, justifiably outraged when they exhibit luxurious villas with lawns and swimming pools that cost tens of millions of dollars. On the other hand, for world leaders like Medvedev through their hands annually hundreds of billions of dollars, is not such a large sum, and the Russian economy does not depend on them. Medvedev accused that he was behind several funds that accept sponsorship money from big business, and with the money bought a luxury property. Supposedly this whole scheme directs Ilya Yeliseyev, each Prime Minister since student days, and all the property belongs personally to Medvedev.

All this, of course, serious allegations, especially that for 50 minutes of the film Bulk leads to proof a lot of documents that testify to the passage of the “goods and money” through these funds and individuals. However, these documents are not referred to Dmitry Medvedev himself, but his participation is proved indirectly with the help of sneakers and shirts, which are worn by the Prime Minister and which on the Internet ordered one of these firms. The proof and photos in “Instagram”, which is seen as Medvedev spent time on the aforesaid properties. Apparently, Medvedev is really “caught by hand”, although it is clear that it is not particularly hidden. Because all of this small amount for the former Russian President and a man who for two decades is at the very top of world politics, or because he is “relaxed” — it is no longer so important. Most importantly, all this is another strong blow to his already shaky already rated, so the question arises: whether Medvedev to be Prime Minister? And if so, how long?

And here we come to an interesting situation. The so-called liberal wing of Russian politics, which some media call it, Dmitry Medvedev, has long been subjected to attacks from the conservative groups close to the Kremlin. For at least a year, and especially this year, Medvedev criticized not only by opposition media, but also those that are considered to be close to power. Many believe that this would have been impossible without the President’s approval, as we already wrote in the article “All Putin’s people” (“Print”, No. 433). In it we tried to perform numerous, rapid and unexpected personnel changes in Putin’s inner circle and came to the conclusion that the pieces on the Board perestanavlivaya in connection with some important changes that need to happen in the distant or near future.

One such change, primarily on a symbolic level, was the arrest the previously untouchable economy Minister Alexei Ulyukayev in mid-November last year. This “guru of the Russian liberals” turned out to be surprisingly naive for a man who acted as a strike force of globalization in the state system of Russia, and allowed to “blame themselves” because of some two million dollars that he allegedly extorted from the large state company “Rosneft”. In the same way as now in the case of Medvedev, all the spotlights and the camera suddenly illuminated the dark matter of the speaker, which for several decades was considered “an exemplary liberal” and Pro-Western person, not implicated in any questionable cases. These developments coincided with numerous appeals to Putin to purge their ranks of liberals. In this connection it is interesting that pet Western Bulk this time sent a spear of his criticism is not directly on Putin, and the “liberal” Medvedev. Many people do not pay attention to this “trifle” and has concluded that the protests on 26 March is a preparation for attacks on the Russian leader before and after the presidential elections in March next year. This, of course, also possible.

However, there are other considerations. First of all, absolutely wrong is the idea that is being imposed on the Western public, that Russia is living in darkness, poverty and lack of freedom. In addition, there are several signs that Russia will or has already occurred a change in power. For example, on the big stage came Vyacheslav Volodin, the new Chairman of the State Duma. Of course, this is an extremely important political event, and it’s hard to believe that it is only the permutation of large figures. Who believes that last spring, summer and early autumn, the Russian leader accidentally had some big personnel changes, which are unfriendly analysts also called cleansing, he understood nothing about the methods of political activities of Putin. Opening and at the same time hiding the maximum number of cards, the Kremlin is now ready to act. When and how, remains to be seen.

“Revolution” as controlled “mechanism”?

Shuffle the cards make Putin for two reasons. First, there is a need to have someone held responsible for economic stagnation in recent years, despite the fact that in terms of sanctions and falling energy prices may better results and not should be expected. But this explanation can not be long to feed the people that live worse. In society intensified protests and encouraged talk of a possible revolution. Some opposition leaders even called the day before the fifth of November 2017, when there will be one hundred years of the October revolution. Putin undoubtedly does not want some dark symbolism dominated in those days, when he will fight for a fourth presidential mandate, which according to tradition he wants to get in the first round.

Therefore, in his reasoning to prevail would the second reason that led the “revolution” he will stand himself, and this will be controlled by the protest mechanism, and not the handiwork of the West, which have long mastered the new technologies of color revolutions. Thus, Putin could show that in Russia no one is above the law, and that policy, how influential and well-deserved they may be, do not dare be impudent when people are going through hard times. The fact that Medvedev is Putin’s friend and his most faithful companion for the past two decades may serve as just another reason to remove him from the post of Prime Minister. So Putin would have shown that the system of accountability works. But the maximum responsibility for the economy was on Medvedev and arrested Ulyukayev.

It would reassure a very influential Patriotic circles who support Putin, but for several years against the liberals in power, and often indicate, more or less openly, on Medvedev, speaking about the notorious “sixth column” in the Kremlin. It is worth repeating that Medvedev is not the enemy and certainly not an enemy of Putin, but after the film Bulk on the Prime Minister fell the heavy shadow of corruption, is incompatible with the post of Prime Minister. Especially inappropriate the situation is following what was said by Medvedev, this year the Crimean pensioners, who had asked him about the increase of pensions: “no Money, but you are here to stay.” Now it turns out that “the money is there” but only for villas and yachts, and it is a very effective message that spread across the Internet and social networks.

Is it enough that Putin has replaced the man who had always been his most loyal ally? Just impossible to predict, especially because the Russian leader prefers unexpected moves. There are two versions on this issue. The first is that Putin “will not succumb to pressure”, because he would have recognized that took the wrong decision. Proponents of the second version of the claim that the departure of Medvedev would not be a surprise, because that would help the President to take the initiative in their own hands ahead of the beginning of the campaign. Putin has demonstrated that he understands the mood of the people and is willing to listen to vox pópuli. One who closely follows Russian politics, will remember how often Putin urged the government to “work better” and always praising only “two Sergeev” — defence Minister Shoigu and foreign Minister Lavrov.

If the political destiny of Dmitry Medvedev, there are some assumptions, the answer to the question of who can become the new head of government, difficult. Maybe it will be the current Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin, whom state television recently “by mistake” was introduced as the Chairman of the Russian government when he spoke at the Arctic forum? Or they will be Sergei Ivanov, the only one who can match with Medvedev in the degree of trust in Putin? You need to remember that Ivanov, in contrast to Rogozin, does not come under the sanctions of the West and, despite his reputation as a “KGB” hawk, known as the man who is respected in Washington.

Perhaps at first glance this may seem strange, but in favor Ivanov said that last year Putin unexpectedly removed him from his post as head of his administration. And in consequence the position comparable to the position of Prime Minister. Ivanov became the special representative on environmental issues with a particularly important mission for the protection of leopards. Everyone understands that these “titles” do not correspond to Ivanov, the man who in 2007 was considered the most likely candidate to succeed Putin as President. But then the President was Medvedev, in connection with which the question arises, is it time Ivanov is back in the game at the highest level?

Doubt and certainty

Of interest are photos taken last week in the Russian Arctic archipelago of Franz Josef Land. Ivanov in grey jacket posing next to Putin and Medvedev, who are dressed in red jackets, looking at the ice and discussing global warming. Media speculate that Putin took Medvedev with him to give him clear support after the street protests. However, some of these pictures of the President standing next to the Prime Minister, holding an ice pick, like the one Ramon Mercader eliminated Leon Trotsky.

This comparison, of course, figurative, but it is symptomatic that Ivanov has appeared in almost all photos taken on the Franz Josef Land. Who does not know that Putin, Ivanov and Medvedev are exclusive and inviolable Trinity all these years, he knows nothing about “kremlinology”, a mysterious science, which is obsessed with Western analysts. And the one who knows the way to the highest posts in Putin’s Russia, often goes through “protection of the leopard” and similar activities, always remembers Sergei Shoigu. This details, when will settle a “revolutionary smoke”. Definitely only one thing: the Prime Minister of Russia will be Putin’s man.