Tillerson’s visit to Moscow: restrained forecasts of experts

U.S. Secretary of state Rex Tillerson plans to visit Moscow April 12 — just a few days after the missile strike, the U.S. Navy on the Syrian air base in response to an attack using chemical weapons, which led to the deaths of civilians.

According to officials, the foreign Minister will try to convince Russia to reconsider the policy support of the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

On Saturday the Minister of foreign Affairs of great Britain, Boris Johnson said he cancels his visit to Moscow scheduled for April 10: “the Syrian events radically changed the situation.”

U.S. Secretary of state Tillerson plans to be in Moscow on Wednesday, after taking part in the meeting of foreign Ministers of the “Big seven” in Italy, which will be held April 9-11.

The state Department has not responded to the request of “voice of America” that has not changed any plans of visiting Moscow after a rocket strikes the U.S. air base al-Assad in Syria.

According to analysts, after the military operation, Washington should take diplomatic measures.

Tillerson, who is known for his nemnogosloven, spoke harshly of Russia, which Washington accuses of failing to control its ally Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

“Russia or involved in the incident, or has demonstrated incompetence,” said Tillerson on Thursday evening. He was referring to the inability of the Kremlin to prevent, as expected, the Assad regime’s use of chemical weapons, which led to numerous casualties in rebel controlled province of Idlib.

In 2013 year, the Syrian government agreed to give up chemical weapons under the supervision of the Russian government. Until recently, attacks using the poisonous gas, Tillerson said that Assad’s fate will be decided by the Syrian people. Himataki after he criticized the Assad government and Russia provide him with support.

Experts believe that the application of a United States missile strike may have a negative impact on Tillerson’s diplomatic mission in Moscow. Experts do not exclude the possibility of rising tensions between the US and Russia on the question of Assad’s future.

“Of course, in the short term, it will complicate bilateral relations,” said the “Voice of America” former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst.

According to him, despite the fact that a rocket attack USA was quite localized and Washington warned Moscow about the operation, so as not to jeopardize the Russian military, the Kremlin’s reaction was quite serious.

According to Herbst, who currently heads the Center for Eurasian studies at the Atlantic Council, Russia’s decision to suspend the Memorandum on the prevention of incidents and ensuring the safety of aviation operations in Syria concluded with the United States, was ill-conceived step.

“The availability of a mechanism to prevent incidents it is important for the United States and Russia. At the same time, Moscow is more interested in him as usual the U.S. armed forces far superior to Russian. Thus, the Russian military are at greater risk in the event of an incident,” said Herbst.

“Missile strikes without a doubt changed the tone of communication, given the cancellation of the Protocol between Russia and the United States to avoid conflict situations during operations in Syria,” — said the “Voice of America” representative of the Center for naval analyses Michael Coffman.

On Friday, the Professor of the American University in Washington, Doga Ulas Eralp told “Voice of America” that Tillerson “now have to urgently try to make a deal”, which will allow you to have a sustainable coordination mechanism between the two countries in the case that “the United States intends to increase the scale of its military involvement in Syria.”

Research fellow, Middle East Institute Daniel Server in an interview with “Voice of America” said that after the military strikes, Syria quickly became the head of the agenda.” The main question is whether Tillerson to negotiate with Russia on a political resolution of the Syrian conflict”, — added the Server.

According to former US officials, the attack with chemical weapons in Syria became a major obstacle to the nascent relationship between the tramp and the Kremlin.

“It is important that the US has corrected the course and the new administration urgently moved from a number of disturbing and incompetent reviews to develop policies and strategies that would control and limit the negative influence of Putin on global security and peace,” said former U.S. Ambassador to the OSCE Daniel Baier.

Head of the Center for international security, Institute of world economy and international relations in Moscow, Alexei Arbatov, in an interview with “Voice of America” expressed the view that, despite the fact that a missile attack of the U.S. Navy in Syria is complicating Russian-American relations, “Ministry of foreign Affairs of Russia yet was pretty low-key that does not exclude the possibility of reaching agreement and cooperation with the United States.”

Telephone diplomacy: Tillerson — Lavrov

In that time, Washington was ready to work with Moscow in areas which involve practical cooperation, according to the U.S. Department of state, the Secretary of state Tillerson will give Moscow clear that the United States will urge Russia to account for violations of international norms.

On Saturday, the Russian foreign Ministry reported on a telephone conversation with U.S. Secretary Rex Tillerson, and the head of the Russian foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. According to the Russian side, the main topic of conversation was the missile strikes on the Syrian air base.

Tillerson and Lavrov agreed to continue to discuss the Syrian topic during a personal meeting next week, during the visit of US state Secretary in Moscow.